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1,500-mile corridor of US on alert for flooding as repeated downpours strike

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Sep 30, 2019 3:18 PM EDT

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Flash flood watches and warnings remained in effect across several states stretching from New Mexico to Michigan through Wednesday as a narrow swath of soaking rain targets the middle of the nation.

The combination of tropical moisture and a temperature battle zone will set the stage for the relentless rain, which could result in widespread flooding this week.

Repeated downpours will focus from eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle to southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Michigan, with the heaviest rain forecast to fall through Wednesday night.

A general 2-4 inches of rain is in store. However, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches is predicted in portions of eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa.

Isolated severe weather is also possible in the central U.S. where the strongest storms strike.

Into Wednesday night, the greatest risk for heavy, gusty and locally severe storms is forecast to extend from west-central Illinois to western Texas. Some communities in this zone can be hit with damaging winds. An Isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

On Tuesday afternoon, a confirmed tornado was reported near Red Oak, Iowa.

While non-excessive rain is welcome in parts of western Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas, where abnormally dry to drought conditions exist, too much rain may fall in some areas and lead to or aggravate existing flooding.

Portions of the James, Missouri and Minnesota rivers over the North Central states were at or above flood stage to start this week from heavy rainfall over the past month.

"With soil across much of the Midwest nearly saturated, flash flooding is a prime concern," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

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"Chicago received more than two times its average rainfall for the month of September, and many other cities in Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin, experienced similar conditions," Buckingham said.

Enough rain can fall to cause periodic travel delays in the major cities of Chicago; Milwaukee; Grand Rapids, Michigan; Davenport, Iowa; Omaha, Nebraska; Kansas City, Missouri; and Topeka, Kansas.

Motorists along portions of Interstate 10, I-29, I-35, I-40, I-70, I-80, I-90 an I-94 can encounter blinding downpours and flooding in low-lying portions of roadways.

In addition to the flood threat, too much rain this time of the year, during harvest time, can negatively impact the harvest. Fields may be slow to dry out, which can inhibit the use of heavy machinery utilized during harvest.

With evaporation rates much lower in the autumn, when compared to the middle of the summer, there is an increased chance of mold growth this time of the year.

Any delays in the harvest can increase the chance of freezes damaging the crops later in the season.

Very warm, moist air is clashing with chilly, dry air over the middle of the nation. This battle zone, combined with tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean and a couple of storms riding northeastward in the corridor, will continue to fuel the heavy rain.

Later in the week, the dry and chilly air will win the battle and sweep across the central and northern Plains and the Midwest from Thursday to Friday. A frost or freeze may occur in the normally colder locations of the North Central states to end this week.

Moisture is likely to linger in or quickly return to the Southwest with the potential for more downpours and localized flooding on Friday.

Download the free AccuWeather app to receive the latest forecast and flood-related advisories. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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