Taste of winter: Storm to deliver snow, rain and wind to Midwest, Northeast
A snowy, cold reality check for hundreds of millions of people in the central and eastern United States this week ahead of early Thanksgiving travel
As firefighters continue battling wildfires in New York and New Jersey, winter-like weather is incoming.
The upcoming storm and weather pattern flip will remind many in the central and eastern United States that autumn 2024 is officially nearing its final month, and conditions may come as a bit of a shock to some, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The winds of change were well underway across the Great Plains on Monday as a potent storm triggered locally severe thunderstorms in some areas and drenching rain or accumulating snow and cold, gusty winds in others. The initial part of the storm lifted northward into Canada on Tuesday. However, the storm will reinvent itself a couple of times, bringing significant impacts to the Midwest and the East as the week progresses.
The most notable changes will be a sweep of colder air driven by periods of strong wind gusts from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, central and southern Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic and southern Atlantic coasts.
Gusts can bring down tree limbs and send leaves and trash cans sailing through neighborhoods, especially around the Midwest and then the Appalachians. Crosswinds can lead to airline delays.
"Large waves will be generated around the Great Lakes from Wednesday to Friday with the first risk of lakeshore overwash and flooding of the season," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
Widespread wind gusts of 40 mph or greater in the northern Plains on Wednesday, combined with blowing snow, may create whiteout conditions at times, which can reduce visibility while driving.
In much of the Midwest, South and East, the evolving storm will bring the lowest AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures since last winter--and it will feel like winter with RealFeel temperatures dipping into the single digits and teens Fahrenheit in the north and the 30s and 40s in the South especially the latter part of the week.
"In Florida, humidity levels will be drastically slashed," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
The major change in the Southeast will be preceded by moisture, in part, from Tropical Rainstorm Sara and the advancing front. The combo can lead to localized flooding in the Interstate 10 corridor.
The storm will complicate rain and snow patterns in the Midwest, Appalachians and Northeast.
Rain will benefit some areas more than others
The first redevelopment phase of the storm will occur from Wednesday to Thursday near the eastern Great Lakes region. A portion of the storm will cause an area of rain to pivot from the central and southern Appalachians to the Atlantic coast. "The rain may behave like a sudden squall with gusty winds and even some thunder and lightning in some cases," Buckingham said.
While any amount of rainfall is needed due to low stream, lake and reservoir levels, it likely will not be enough to have a significant impact on the overall drought. Instead, a brief period of drenching rain is likely that can slow travel and even lead to some ponding on some roads. Multiple days of soaking rain are needed to reverse the drought and start filling reservoirs.
Any soaking rainfall, be it brief, can significantly ease brush fire concerns by dampening leaves and grasses and moistening the topsoil.
There is likely to be a second reformation of the storm in the Northeast by the end of the week.
Depending on where the storm re-forms yet again, it could lead to significant rainfall in parts of New England and Upstate New York. An inch or more of rain could fall and soak the ground. The dividing line may be near or just north of New York City and northern New Jersey from Friday to Saturday.
Get ready for snow in the Appalachians
Another important factor with the transitioning storm will be the rounds of snow it brings from portions of the Great Lakes to the Appalachians, mainly from Thursday to Saturday.
"There is the potential for a foot or more of snow to fall over the ridges, plateaus and peaks in the mountains of West Virginia, western Maryland and western Pennsylvania form the setup later this week and into this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. "It is possible that at elevations near and above 2,000 feet can easily end up with a foot or more of snow.
At lower elevations from Wisconsin and Michigan to Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virgnia, Pennsylvania, upstate New York and northwestern New England, some wet snow is likely to fall on occasion. However, much of the snow may melt with most accumulation being limited to grass and elevated surfaces.
A few pockets or bands will exist where the lake effect enhances the snowfall rate enough to overcome the warm ground and above-freezing air to bring some accumulation. This can extend southward to the Tennessee and North Carolina mountains.
From brush fires in parks within New York City to raging fires in Massachusetts, drought conditions have fueled widespread wildfires.
Another heavy snow zone may develop as the storm evolves from Friday to Saturday. Like that of the Midwest and central Appalachians, the amount of snow in this area may also depend on elevation, with the ridges picking up significantly more than the valleys. Pockets of moderate snow--from 3 to 6 inches--are likely with heavier snow possible in the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks and the Green and White Mountains.
Gusty winds in the wake of the storm will raise the brush fire risk where little or no rain falls. However, lower temperatures combined with rain that can soak the topsoil in some places and snow that can blanket dry leaves and brush will work against the ignition and spread of more fires.
Major, more lasting relief from the drought on a widespread scale may take some time in the Northeast. However, there will be more opportunities for rain (and snow) during the latter part of November to early December.
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