Winter 2016/2017 can be colder than last year, more energy usage; Weak La Nina conditions early, but pattern amplifies in January
I am not in the office again today to cut a video. Here is another look with more detail of our winter forecast. We will have an update in November. What is left out of this forecast is the Siberian snowpack influence which we look at in October and the predictions of NAO and AO, which we may have a better handle later in the fall. Please try to not spread this through social media. Our free site will not release the forecast until next Wednesday. Thank You.
1. There is a higher confidence that this will be a long, extended winter lasting through the early to middle part of the spring, especially from the Plains to the East Coast, similar to 2013/2014 winter and spring season. It will be colder than last winter with a higher demand for heating.
2. Neutral ENSO is more likely than La Nina this winter, especially late winter. The PDO has weakened, but we expect a turnaround in the winter, increasing in a positive direction. Sea surface temperature anomalies and the EPO can be an important influence on the forecast this winter. So, expect La Nina conditions in the fall and early winter, but other signals may take over for the middle and late winter.
3. The first half of the winter will have primarily fast-moving northern branch of the jet stream carrying storms west to east. We expect frequent fronts, up-and-down temperatures and some snow spread out from the Rockies to the Northeast.
4. By January, the pattern can be more amplified. The pattern slows with two possible scenarios. One, fronts can move quickly to the coast with low pressure intensification along the mid-Atlantic or New England coast. The second can be waves developing along these fronts from the south moving up the east coast that can lead to rain or snow for big cities but more likely snow inland.
5. Lake-effect snow develops on time and can be heavier.
6. December will not be as mild as the record warm December of 2015.
7. For the Southeast, it should be a mild December and February but a chillier January. This is similar to the 1984/1985 winter season.
8. The Southwest looks dry and warm overall.
9. Arctic shots of cold will take aim at the northern Plains and Midwest. This will result in a colder overall winter for the Plains and Midwest.
10. Above-normal snowfall is expected around the Great Lakes, Northeast and eastern slope of the northern Rockies.
1. We may be too extreme on our departures in the northern Plains and northern Rockies. We brought up temperatures in December based on past Decembers. We are expecting a faster west to east flow. We may still be too cold. That just seems the trend over the past few years. Snowcover building up in western and central Canada will determine the degree of cold early.
2. January could be a wild month if the PDO trends the way we think. We are very high on snow for the northern east slope of the Rockies and the Northeast. There can be multiple storms during January for the East.
3. February is the toughest forecast out of all three months. We had a long debate on the pattern at our winter meeting. Initial forecast from the summer was to dump the cold into the northern Rockies as the upper ridges set up over the Northeast Pacific into Alaska and along the Southeast coast. The only year that showed this in our analog package was 2013/2014, but most modeling, which I do not trust this far out, shows the upper ridge closer to the Northwest which would force cold and precipitation farther east toward the Plains and Midwest and weaker on the upper high along the Southeast. We trended in this direction but not all the way. It can be colder in the East and warmer in the Rockies than what we have right now.
The three-month forecast maps show the colder trend from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. Overall, we are forecasting colder than last year. Upper flow looks flatter early in the season which will lead to milder air along the West coast. Fast-moving systems will be followed by brief, cold air masses targeted at the northern Plains and Midwest but occasionally reaching the East. Midwinter, the pattern looks more amplified where fronts and storms can be stronger and temperatures can be more extreme. February is a risky call at this point. A shift in the storm track toward the Ohio and Tennessee valleys could mean more snow for the Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley, milder air in the East and colder air over the northern Rockies and northern Plains. However, we feel the winter will not let up. Similarities from 2013/2014 season may show up with a extended period of winter weather into the spring which may have impacts on retail and businesses with a late transition.
Below is a comparison of last winter (December through February) to this projected winter, temperature and precipitation. It was a mild winter for many with a super El Nino. We do not expect a very mild winter season. In addition, we expect drier conditions in the South this winter, especially the Southeast which would be a big change from last year.
This is our snowfall forecast which includes the period from October through April. Right now it still looks like it could snow right through April across many areas of the country.. We favor a lack of blocking this Winter, but a strong polar vortex can slip south on occasion. We will see a frequent amount of storms coming down out of western Canada heading to the east, especially in the early part of the season. However, in the middle of the season, the pattern can become more amplified. As the water temperature anomalies rebound off the Northwest coast and south of Alaska, upper-level highs may develop more often over Alaska and lead to a change in the pattern mid and late season. Take a look at the two maps below.
Rain may be a spoiler to big systems in January and February south of New York City near the I-95 corridor. There also can be ice from southwest Virginia up the I-81 corridor to interior New England. Both statements here can hold back amounts from huge totals but still can wind up just above normal.
1. Fast-moving northern branch of the jet will carry storms quickly west to east. (Moderate to high confidence)
2. Increased cold shots across the northern part of the nation behind these fast-moving storms, much different from last year; not as mild for the nation. (Moderate confidence)
3. Snow can lay on the ground northern Plains and Rockies leading to increased cold in these areas. Occasional shots of cold reach Great Lakes and Northeast leading to an earlier lake-effect season compared to last year. Warmer-than-normal water lake temperatures should contribute to a strong season. (Moderate confidence)
4. Mild conditions expected for the Southeast as an upper high may strengthen at times. 1984 was a very mild December in the Southeast. Southeast ridge can hold back any long duration cold for the Southeast and Northeast in December, but there can be a couple of brief cold shots in the north. (Moderate to high confidence)
5. La Nina tends to favor stronger, moist systems in the north compared to the south. Even though officially ENSO will wind up neutral this winter, we favor drier conditions in the Southwest and Southeast, La Nina characteristics for early winter. (Moderate confidence)
6. Lake-effect, especially off the central and western Great Lakes, can be impressive this December. Southwestern Michigan and northwestern Indiana can be impacted. (Moderate confidence)
7. the upper high will build at times in the Southwest and it looks warm and dry, which can lead to a fast west to east onshore flow Northwest coast, downsloping and warming interior Northwest. The track of systems could bring heavier events from far northern California into western Oregon and southwestern Washington. (Moderate confidence)
1. We have two-thirds of the nation with near- to below-average temperatures. Snowcover entering the month will determine the coverage and level of cold for January. The pattern will be more amplified in January compared to December with a building upper high toward Alaska. (Moderate confidence)
2. Lake-effect can really crank this month resulting in above-normal snowfall around the Great Lakes. (Low to moderate confidence)
3. Mainly northern branch lows cutting through the Midwest to the East, occasionally a storm coming up from the south developing off these fronts. Warm waters, positive PDO, negative EPO- storms can be big! Remember last January’s crippling storm late in the month for the Middle Atlantic. (Moderate confidence)
4. Upper high will hold in the Southwest. This will force the northern jet into Canada much of the time. It can be dry and quite mild in the Southwest including most of California. This is a big difference from last January where northern California had heavy rain and snow. (Moderate confidence)
5. Higher chance for a damaging freeze in the Southeast this January compared to last January. Florida citrus can have a freeze this year. (Low to moderate confidence)
the 1983/1984 and 1984/1985 winter seasons are on our list of analogs. There was a significant Florida citrus freeze near Christmas in 1983. Then another occurred in January of 1985.
The freeze of 1985 occurred on Jan. 20-22. It was a hard freeze; however, its effects were felt so severely because growers had not yet recovered from the 1983 freeze. The combined effects of the freezes of 1983 and 1985 made 1985 even worse.
6. Dry much of the time through the southern Plains, cold shots can reach far to the south behind stronger systems. (Low to moderate confidence)
1. We are leaning a different way this February. There is a high risk in February on what the upper pattern will turn out. I feel the numbers will be extreme, but we had to go more conservative at this point. (Low confidence)
2. The Southwest and Southeast should be mild with below-normal precipitation. (Moderate to high confidence)
3. Upper high can build over the Southeast or East Coast. This can lead to warmer air and drier conditions east of the Appalachians. This also can force the storm track back through the Midwest and Ohio Valley where we have above-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall. (Low confidence because everything can shift farther east)
4. The core of cold may aim more toward the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest. Based on some analogs and models, we have made the Northwest drier than earlier thinking. (Low to moderate confidence)
5. Ice events are a higher possibility across the interior Northeast southwest down the Appalachians into the eastern Ohio Valley. (Low confidence)
6. Severe weather is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast, at times lifting up toward the Carolinas. (Low to moderate confidence)
We feel that La Nina will not officially be named this winter, but weekly values will be in the La Nina criteria through the fall and perhaps early winter with characteristics of La Nina in the pattern from time to time. However, the PDO is expected to weaken toward neutral over the early and middle part of fall, then make a comeback more positive during the winter. This can impact precipitation patterns for the Northwest, but the warming from the positive PDO could be more significant south of Alaska where midwinter, a potential upper high leading to a negative EPO can be the dominant signal from midwinter into the spring. Other factors to the forecast will be the stage of the AO and NAO middle to late season. We lean more positive early. Also, SST anomalies off the Southeast coast can promote more upper highs to build which can influence temperatures in the East (milder) and deflect storms farther west.
Since we are dealing with a weak ENSO, more likely neutral, and the PDO is currently weakening, we need to look at other factors. In our analog package, we not only looked at ENSO trend but type. We also looked at sea surface temperature anomalies for both basins, QBO trend, solar cycle and sea ice. We will look at the Siberian snowfall for the update in November. With all of these factors, we have created an analog package that seems good in comparison to some of the modeling which we feel is playing catch up to the changing sea surface temperature anomalies.
So we put all of this together, which I like to do in a mega chart, and weigh certain years; the analog maps below are the result. I think they are too cool for the Southeast and not warm enough in the Southwest. However, it looks like we will be using more energy compared to last year for the nation.
