Hurricane Nicole remains the only organized feature across the Atlantic Basin. This Category 2 hurricane is 325 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. We are monitoring tropical waves along 30 west, along 60 west and along 86 west. All three waves are moving west at roughly 6 degrees longitude per day and remain weak. No new development is expected related to any of these waves through at least the middle of next week. An upper-level low just south of the Azores will lift northeast and is not expected to transition into a tropical or semi-tropical system.

Hurricane Nicole has winds of 100 mph and is moving north-northwest at 7 mph. The powerful hurricane is moving on the western periphery of an area of high pressure centered east of the tropical cyclone. As Nicole moves farther north, southwesterly winds aloft will start to interact with the hurricane causing it to turn more northerly then northeasterly. This turn will bring Nicole dangerously close or even over Bermuda tomorrow morning. The hurricane is moving over very warm water and will remain in an environment of low shear until it starts to interact with those southwesterly upper-level winds. Dry air west and north of the hurricane has not affected the overall structure. So Nicole could continue to intensify until tomorrow morning before an increase in vertical wind shear. Based on this reasoning, Nicole could become a Category 3 or major hurricane as it approaches Bermuda later today or tonight. Once the increase in southwesterly upper-level winds starts tomorrow morning, the hurricane will start to weaken, but not before bringing major hurricane impacts over Bermuda.

Track forecasts have shifted a bit more to the east during the past 24 hours of computer model runs. Unfortunately, this brings the most damaging winds and setup for a dangerous surge and rise in water levels over coastal areas of the islands. These track forecasts bring the center of Nicole over or within a few miles of Bermuda between daybreak and noon on Thursday. During this six-hour period, the worst storm surge, highest winds and the heaviest rainfall are expected. A storm surge of 3-5 feet along with very large and battering waves will dangerously inundate and perhaps damage parts of the islands. Wind gusts of 100 to 120 mph could bring serious damage to structures and bring utility outages. Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected leading to fresh water flash flooding in streets and poor drainage areas. These impacts could be similar to those experienced from Hurricane Fabian which hit the islands in 2003 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Nicole will move away from Bermuda later on Thursday afternoon and the winds and rain will subside over the islands. Large waves and dangerous rip currents could linger for another day or two. Nicole will start to accelerate to the northeast as southwesterly upper-level winds force the storm into the North Atlantic on Thursday night and Friday. The hurricane will slow down and transition into a non-tropical low pressure area on Friday night and Saturday. The non-tropical version of Nicole is still expected to remain a powerful storm with hurricane-force winds over the North Atlantic for a few more days.

We are still expecting the rest of the Atlantic Basin to remain relatively quiet for the next several days. A combination of increased vertical wind shear over much of the basin and unfavorable areas of dry, stable air will deter tropical development through at least the middle of next week.

In the East Pacific, we are closely monitoring two areas of low pressure. One area of low pressure labeled as 98E is located a little more than 1,000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. This area of low pressure has been moving west-northwest and this motion will bring the feature over cooler waters during the next couple of days. This will probably prevent further development. A second area of low pressure labeled 99E is located 475 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This evolving tropical system is moving due west and should remain over warm water and in an environment of low shear and relatively moist air. These favorable conditions should allow 99E to become better organized, and if this process continues, then this tropical system should become a depression by the end of the week or over the upcoming weekend. Long-range computer forecasts continue to show this system tracking westward away from Mexico.

In the central Pacific, a large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south of Hawaii continues to move westward. Any development within this large area of showers and thunderstorms will be slow to occur and this area of unsettled weather will remain well south of Hawaii for the next several days.

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