Major powerful Hurricane Matthew crawling northward
We continue to monitor and track powerful Hurricane Matthew, located 220 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and moving north at just 6 mph. Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we are monitoring an area of low pressure 500 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A tropical wave along 42 west has an area of low pressure near 11 north. However, recent computer forecasts show no support for tropical development through at least the next several days. A persistent area of thunderstorms just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is also being closely watched.
Hurricane Matthew remains a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph. The storm has been wobbling northward during the past 24 hours and seems to be on a more consistent northward course. The storm is moving over deep warm water and through an environment of low shear. Some dry air on the west side of the hurricane has occasionally been drawn into the outer circulation and this has caused some fluctuation in the storm's strength and symmetry. However, given the mostly ideal environmental conditions, Matthew should remain a very powerful Category 4 o 3 major hurricane as it weaves its way northward between eastern Jamaica and western Haiti during the next 24-36 hours.
Reconnaissance data from an Air Force C130J last night found an 8- to 12-mile diameter mile with the maximum radius of winds around that eye. Hurricane-force winds are estimated to extend outward 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward by about 195 miles from the center. Based on this wind field, tropical storm-force winds will start to impact Jamaica and western-most Haiti by this evening. We then expect Matthew to track over eastern-most Cuba tomorrow. Interaction with land will cause the hurricane to weaken. Since the storm's diameter is so small, this interaction could cause it to weaken to a Category 2 hurricane later tomorrow or tomorrow night. Computer forecasts keep Matthew as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane after it moves over eastern Cuba as environmental conditions should remain favorable for restrengthening.
Matthew continues to be steered by an area of high pressure over the western North Atlantic. The western periphery of this high is very close to 75 west, the longitude line Matthew is tracking along. An upper-level trough to the west over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is weakening. This should allow the upper-level ridge to expand a bit more to the west, causing Matthew to turn more west of north during Wednesday and Thursday. This will cause Matthew to track through the Bahamas tomorrow night, and Wednesday into Thursday. If the upper-level ridge continues to expand westward this could help guide the hurricane very close to the east coast of Florida on Thursday and Thursday night. Another upper-level trough moving toward the east coast of the U.S. by the end of the week will start to exert a southwest steering flow over the hurricane and cause it to turn more toward the northeast. If this upper-level trough is slow to move eastward, Matthew could move inland over eastern North Carolina this weekend. All interests over eastern Florida and over the southeastern U.S. should closely monitor the progression of this very dangerous hurricane.
Impacts from Matthew over Jamaica and western Haiti will include a dangerous storm surge of 5-11 feet along the southern coast of Haiti and eastern-most Cuba. Coastal sections of Jamaica could experience a storm surge of 3-5 feet. There will be large and battering waves along all coastal areas of these same areas extending along the rest of south-facing coastal areas of Hispaniola and through the south-facing coastal areas of eastern Cuba. This very rough surf will eventually impact the Bahamas later this week. Eventually, east coastal areas of Florida northward through the Carolina coasts will experience a rough and dangerous surf by later this week. Rainfall totals of 6-12 inches with localized amounts of over 20 inches can be expected over parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. This torrential rainfall will cause life-threatening mudslides and flooding, especially in the higher terrain of these islands. Tropical storm-force winds with gusts to hurricane force will impact these areas causing extensive and prolonged power and utility outages.
The only other feature being closely monitored is an area of low pressure about 500 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is experiencing some vertical wind shear but is tracking over relatively warm water. Development of this feature will be slow to occur and could become more difficult due to even stronger shear later this week. We see no other features across the Atlantic Basin capable of becoming organized tropical features through the rest of this week.
The East Pacific remains very quiet and no tropical development is expected through at least Friday. The central Pacific has an area of low pressure near the Dateline well west-southwest of Hawaii. This feature will move into the western Pacific in a few days. Regardless of development, this system will not impact Hawaii. The rest of the central Pacific remains relatively quiet and no other development is expected across this sub-basin through at least Friday.
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