AccuWeather's 2019-2020 Asia winter forecast
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 23, 2019 1:55 PM EDT
AccuWeather's annual winter forecast is out, and water temperatures over the Indian Ocean are forecast to play a significant role in Asia's weather pattern this season by limiting stormy conditions over a large part of the continent. Drier weather will have implications on drought conditions as well as air quality and smog during winter.
"The Indian Ocean Dipole, as it is called, is forecast to be positive during much of this winter," AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is characterized by warmer-than-average waters off the African east coast and cooler-than-average waters off the Indonesia coast.
The cool waters in the eastern part of the Indian Basin will tend to cause drought conditions to continue or worsen and keep the risk of wildfires elevated over Indonesia, Malaysia and even as far south as Australia through January.
A man rides his motorcycle through the haze from forest fires in Palembang, South Sumatra, Indonesia, Monday, Oct. 14, 2019. (AP Photo/Iwan Cheristian)
Later in the winter, even if water temperatures trend toward average, rainfall may not ramp up enough to ease drought and wildfire concerns.
"The Philippines are likely to be drier than average due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a pool of warm water near the international date line over the Pacific Ocean, provided tropical cyclones do not intervene," Nicholls said.
Water temperatures over the Indian Ocean are likely to result in much of Southeast Asia being rather dry in December and January with only scattered rain. Rainfall may ramp up or become more consistent late in the winter.
"Much of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand can expect near- to below-average rainfall for the winter season," Nicholls said.
The overall pattern may also lead to a significant smog season and poor air quality for the valleys of northern India, including the New Delhi metro area.
A thin layer of smog envelops a train station in New Delhi, India, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
"While there may be enough weak storms passing by to the north to stir the air and keep smog events limited early in the season, that may not be the case as the winter progresses," Nicholls said.
Smog events over northern India may become frequent, long-lasting and dangerous, especially during January, February and perhaps early March.
Meanwhile, the area from the eastern shores of the Mediterranean Sea to the shores of the Arabian Sea is likely experience warmer- and drier-than-average conditions for the winter season as a whole.
"However, warmer-than-average waters may bring some opportunities for rain in southern Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen, especially early in the winter," Nicholls said.
Farther north, some storms will affect areas from Turkey, Georgia and the Volga Valley of Russia to northern Pakistan, Nepal and northern India this winter. However, there will be significantly less storms when compared to last winter.
The infrequent storms will tend to lead to long periods of dry conditions.
Much of central China is forecast to be seasonably dry with slightly higher-than-average temperatures.
In terms of cold weather, the area from Siberia to Kazakhstan is forecast to be seasonable. Some cold significant shots are forecast for Ukraine and southwestern Russia this winter, especially later on, but the cold shots will tend to be brief during December.
"Some cold air will sneak into northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan on occasion, but cold shots in these areas through this winter will be brief overall," Nicholls said.
"Despite the occasional cold outbreaks, temperatures over much of northeastern Asia should be near to above average for the winter as a whole," Nicholls added.
Storms for the northern part of Asia are forecast to be frequent enough to produce above-average precipitation and snowfall for much of the area from Siberia to Japan.
"Precipitation is forecast to be near average for northeastern Asia overall, but a more active storm track early in the winter may bring heavier and more frequent precipitation events early on from eastern China to Japan," Nicholls said.
AccuWeather is predicting 1-3 inches (3-8 cm) of snow in Beijing, 2-4 inches (5-10 cm) of snow in Tokyo and 5-10 inches (13-25 cm) of snow Seoul. The anticipated snowfall is near average for Beijing and Tokyo but a bit above average in Seoul.
"There is a chance that Beijing picks up a bit more snow than this, especially if cold shots come early and capture the active storm track just to the south," Nicholls said.
Tropical outlook for Indian Ocean and western Pacific
In terms of tropical activity, there is some risk of strikes originating from systems in the Indian Ocean along parts of the shoreline of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, mainly during December.
Tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean tend to occur prior to the arrival and departure of seasonal monsoons.
An auto-rickshaw and uprooted trees lie along a road in Puri district after Cyclone Fani hit the coastal eastern state of Odisha, India, Friday, May 3, 2019. Cyclone Fani tore through India's eastern coast lashing beaches with rain and winds gusting up to 205 kilometers (127 miles) per hour. (AP Photo)
"While any systems in the Arabian Sea should be fairly weak with minimal impact to land, areas at greatest risk for significant impact, especially from heavy rainfall along the Bay of Bengal coast, extend from eastern and southern India to Sri Lanka," Nicholls said.
The tropical season tends to run year-round in the western Pacific.
"There is the risk of tropical cyclones moving across the Philippines and perhaps into the South China Sea this winter," Nicholls said. "Any tropical systems in these areas can skew the anticipated dry weather pattern to average or above-average rainfall."
There is always a remote chance a tropical system gets tugged northward and affects Taiwan and Japan by the approach of a non-tropical storm from the main continent.
Workers walk past homes destroyed by Typhoon Hagibis Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019, in Nagano, Japan. At least 77 people have been confirmed dead from the powerful storm. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
However, in Japan, which was slammed by Typhoon Hagibis in October, strengthening westerly winds during the winter should keep most and perhaps all tropical cyclones away.
While the number of tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons have been below forecast projections for 2019 in the western Pacific, the season is already the third costliest typhoon season on record, thanks in large part to Hagibis, Lekima and Faxai.
More than 270 people have died from tropical systems in the western Pacific Basin.
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News / Weather News
AccuWeather's 2019-2020 Asia winter forecast
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 23, 2019 1:55 PM EDT
AccuWeather's annual winter forecast is out, and water temperatures over the Indian Ocean are forecast to play a significant role in Asia's weather pattern this season by limiting stormy conditions over a large part of the continent. Drier weather will have implications on drought conditions as well as air quality and smog during winter.
"The Indian Ocean Dipole, as it is called, is forecast to be positive during much of this winter," AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is characterized by warmer-than-average waters off the African east coast and cooler-than-average waters off the Indonesia coast.
The cool waters in the eastern part of the Indian Basin will tend to cause drought conditions to continue or worsen and keep the risk of wildfires elevated over Indonesia, Malaysia and even as far south as Australia through January.
A man rides his motorcycle through the haze from forest fires in Palembang, South Sumatra, Indonesia, Monday, Oct. 14, 2019. (AP Photo/Iwan Cheristian)
Later in the winter, even if water temperatures trend toward average, rainfall may not ramp up enough to ease drought and wildfire concerns.
"The Philippines are likely to be drier than average due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a pool of warm water near the international date line over the Pacific Ocean, provided tropical cyclones do not intervene," Nicholls said.
Water temperatures over the Indian Ocean are likely to result in much of Southeast Asia being rather dry in December and January with only scattered rain. Rainfall may ramp up or become more consistent late in the winter.
"Much of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand can expect near- to below-average rainfall for the winter season," Nicholls said.
The overall pattern may also lead to a significant smog season and poor air quality for the valleys of northern India, including the New Delhi metro area.
A thin layer of smog envelops a train station in New Delhi, India, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
"While there may be enough weak storms passing by to the north to stir the air and keep smog events limited early in the season, that may not be the case as the winter progresses," Nicholls said.
Smog events over northern India may become frequent, long-lasting and dangerous, especially during January, February and perhaps early March.
Related:
Meanwhile, the area from the eastern shores of the Mediterranean Sea to the shores of the Arabian Sea is likely experience warmer- and drier-than-average conditions for the winter season as a whole.
"However, warmer-than-average waters may bring some opportunities for rain in southern Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen, especially early in the winter," Nicholls said.
Farther north, some storms will affect areas from Turkey, Georgia and the Volga Valley of Russia to northern Pakistan, Nepal and northern India this winter. However, there will be significantly less storms when compared to last winter.
The infrequent storms will tend to lead to long periods of dry conditions.
Much of central China is forecast to be seasonably dry with slightly higher-than-average temperatures.
In terms of cold weather, the area from Siberia to Kazakhstan is forecast to be seasonable. Some cold significant shots are forecast for Ukraine and southwestern Russia this winter, especially later on, but the cold shots will tend to be brief during December.
"Some cold air will sneak into northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan on occasion, but cold shots in these areas through this winter will be brief overall," Nicholls said.
"Despite the occasional cold outbreaks, temperatures over much of northeastern Asia should be near to above average for the winter as a whole," Nicholls added.
Storms for the northern part of Asia are forecast to be frequent enough to produce above-average precipitation and snowfall for much of the area from Siberia to Japan.
"Precipitation is forecast to be near average for northeastern Asia overall, but a more active storm track early in the winter may bring heavier and more frequent precipitation events early on from eastern China to Japan," Nicholls said.
AccuWeather is predicting 1-3 inches (3-8 cm) of snow in Beijing, 2-4 inches (5-10 cm) of snow in Tokyo and 5-10 inches (13-25 cm) of snow Seoul. The anticipated snowfall is near average for Beijing and Tokyo but a bit above average in Seoul.
"There is a chance that Beijing picks up a bit more snow than this, especially if cold shots come early and capture the active storm track just to the south," Nicholls said.
Tropical outlook for Indian Ocean and western Pacific
In terms of tropical activity, there is some risk of strikes originating from systems in the Indian Ocean along parts of the shoreline of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, mainly during December.
Tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean tend to occur prior to the arrival and departure of seasonal monsoons.
An auto-rickshaw and uprooted trees lie along a road in Puri district after Cyclone Fani hit the coastal eastern state of Odisha, India, Friday, May 3, 2019. Cyclone Fani tore through India's eastern coast lashing beaches with rain and winds gusting up to 205 kilometers (127 miles) per hour. (AP Photo)
"While any systems in the Arabian Sea should be fairly weak with minimal impact to land, areas at greatest risk for significant impact, especially from heavy rainfall along the Bay of Bengal coast, extend from eastern and southern India to Sri Lanka," Nicholls said.
The tropical season tends to run year-round in the western Pacific.
"There is the risk of tropical cyclones moving across the Philippines and perhaps into the South China Sea this winter," Nicholls said. "Any tropical systems in these areas can skew the anticipated dry weather pattern to average or above-average rainfall."
There is always a remote chance a tropical system gets tugged northward and affects Taiwan and Japan by the approach of a non-tropical storm from the main continent.
Workers walk past homes destroyed by Typhoon Hagibis Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019, in Nagano, Japan. At least 77 people have been confirmed dead from the powerful storm. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
However, in Japan, which was slammed by Typhoon Hagibis in October, strengthening westerly winds during the winter should keep most and perhaps all tropical cyclones away.
While the number of tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons have been below forecast projections for 2019 in the western Pacific, the season is already the third costliest typhoon season on record, thanks in large part to Hagibis, Lekima and Faxai.
More than 270 people have died from tropical systems in the western Pacific Basin.
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