A very interesting weather situation is going to set up across the country this weekend... and probably become even more interesting next week. Hmm... when a weatherman says interesting, you know there is trouble brewing.

The reason for the interest, and the potential trouble, is going to be the establishment of a tremendous temperature contrast from north to south across much of the country east of the Rockies. On Saturday, temperatures will be only in the teens and the single numbers across North Dakota and Minnesota and the 70s and 80s in Texas. Sunday, temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s across New England and the 60s and 70s from Virginia on southward. The boundary between those two contrasting temperature regimes will be a wiggly front, at times moving northward as a warm front, at times moving southward as a cold front, and each time it wiggles, there will be trouble... after all... isn't it the wiggles in life that usually get us into trouble!

In any case, this frontal boundary will be the source of at least a few flat waves of low pressure that will run from southwest to northeast along it. By a "flat wave," we mean a little area of low pressure, but not one that winds up into a big, dramatic storm. That doesn't mean the weather can't be dramatic, and it doesn't mean there can't be significant rain and snow, most of it along and to the north of the frontal boundary. And there will be at least two, if not three or more, of these waves of moisture that move along that front in the Saturday through Tuesday of next week time period. As long as the waves remain "flat" and don't develop into an intensifying storm system, the frontal boundary won't move a whole lot and so while it gets unseasonably warm from Texas to Virginia, it will stay chilly across the north from Nebraska to Michigan to New York and New England. Western and northern portions of that area can get snow and ice, closer to the frontal boundary, rain and perhaps some mixed precipitation.

So, what will it take to convert all of this potential atmospheric energy pent up in this wavy front into a large, intensifying storm?? Well, it will take some strong jet stream disturbance to come up over that frontal boundary and gets things cooking. Such a disturbance can be found now in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Oregon. It is moving southward and will help to initiate another good rainstorm for Southern California late tonight and tomorrow. That storm will then slowly move eastward across the desert Southwest and eventually by about Monday into the southern Plains. Some of that disturbance's energy will head out northeastward along our frontal boundary and be responsible for a couple of flat waves that move from the Plains to the Middle Atlantic coast during the first few days of next week. After that, it is possible the primary core of the disturbance will head eastward and initiate a intensifying storm in the southern Plains that either moves toward the Great Lakes by Thursday or so, or toward the Middle Atlantic coast. If it really wraps up into an intense storm, it will draw the warm air northward and we could have quite a surge of warm air into the Ohio Valley and into southern New England. If it takes a track more to the east, the colder air will hold into New England, and we could have quite a snow storm. Personally, I think it's too early to tell which way the cookie will crumble, but a lot of crummy weather appears to be in store for a fairly large part of the country next week.

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