Surge in downpours, thunderstorms coming to southeast US
An uptick in rainfall is coming to the Southeast prior to the end of June and the wetter pattern may then last into July.
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Soon after the heat peaks over the interior Southeast, the pattern will transition into one that favors an increase in showers and thunderstorms into early July, AccuWeather meteorologists say. There's even a remote possibility for tropical activity near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
A blistering heat dome that has been building since late last week from the middle of the nation to the mid-Atlantic coast peaked on Tuesday and will gradually weaken through the end of the week. Prior to a complete collapse of the heat dome, the heat will shift Thursday over parts of the Southeast. Shortly after, the typical summertime pattern of spotty afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity will come into play.
The thunderous escalation won't stop there. A very slight dip in the jet stream is forecast to gradually form over the Southeastern states. As this occurs, it will harvest some moisture from the Gulf and subtropical Atlantic through the end of the month. These pulses of moisture will lead to groups of showers and thunderstorms that could be well beyond the pop-up afternoon summertime thunderstorm activity the Southern states are known for.
Where the downpours tend to linger for a day or repeat over multiple days, there will be a greater potential for more widespread flash flooding, other than the typical localized downpours.
Watching for near-coast tropical development
Sometimes, when a summertime dip in the jet stream lingers near the Gulf or the southwest Atlantic, it can lead to gradual tropical development. While that is far from a guarantee in this case, it is something AccuWeather meteorologists will be watching for over the central and eastern Gulf coasts, as well as the southern Atlantic coasts.
First, an area of low pressure would have to form over the warm water or right along the coast. Next, it would have to linger long enough to begin producing gusty winds and a defined circulation. Should that happen, a tropical depression could be born. AccuWeather meteorologists have outlined a stretch of the southeastern U.S. coast where there could be some tropical rainstorm activity at the very least during early July.
There is currently no low pressure area, and the jet stream dip has yet to form. However, confidence in the latter with increasingly persistent downpours and gusty thunderstorms is much greater and would have to occur first. Even without any tropical development into early July in this area, rough conditions can develop on the beaches with the possibility of a few waterspouts for boaters to look out for, including around the Fourth of July holiday.
A steam bath for millions
Where clouds develop and persist in the region, those areas will tend to have somewhat lower high temperatures, but the nights can remain especially muggy.
As much of the Southeast experiences the uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity into the end of June, a high pressure off the Atlantic coast may exert enough influence to hold back rainfall for much of the Carolinas for a time during this weekend. Storms will affect much of the Carolinas into Friday.
With more sunshine compared to the rest of the Southeast, the Carolinas may stay rather hot for an extended period before that sunny pocket breaks down toward July. However, anywhere the sun is out for a number of hours in the Southern states in late June and July, the conditions can be brutal.
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