Summer of heat, thunderstorms and drought to unfold for US in 2025
AccuWeather's 2025 U.S. summer forecast, calls for frequent heat and worsening drought across a large area of the country. Meanwhile, millions will face a summer of thunderstorms and a looming tropical threat.
Meteorological summer is just weeks away. Lincoln Riddle spoke with our long-range experts to find out what’s in store for the United States this summer.
Energy bills could run high this summer as AccuWeather long-range forecasters predict a hotter-than-normal season across large swaths of the United States.
Meteorological summer starts on Sunday, June 1, and runs through the end of August, a three-month span that will feature sweltering heat, severe weather, intense wildfires and the start of a dynamic hurricane season.
A family walks onto the newly replenished beach in Point Pleasant Beach, N.J. (AP Photo/Wayne Parry)
Summer heat to bake central, western US
Many parts of the U.S. have already had a taste of summer warmth, including Phoenix, which had its earliest 100-degree temperature reading in seven years when the mercury cracked the century mark on April 10. And this is just a preview of what's to come as it is expected to be a hot summer for most of the country.
Temperatures as a whole from June through August will be above the historical average. AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters, led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, says the worst of the heat will be focused in the northern Rockies and across the Plains where records could be challenged on multiple occasions.
Millions of homes will face higher energy bills due to the increased use of air conditioning, fans and other cooling systems.
In the Northeast and across the Appalachians, the season will be full of ups and downs as heat waves are broken up by showers and thunderstorms. The tradeoff will be higher humidity, which can ultimately boost AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures, especially when the sun is shining.
The number of days when temperatures are expected to reach 90 degrees is forecasted to be 12-16 in New York City, 25-30 in Philadelphia, 45-50 in Atlanta and 18-24 in Orlando.
Farther west, there could be more 90-degree days in 2025 compared to last year, including the predicted 16-22 in Minneapolis, 60-66 in Denver and 56-62 in Los Angeles.
A trend in recent years has been warmer nights during the summer, especially in and around major cities. This could be the case again in 2025. "Less relief from the heat at night can contribute to more heat stress and health issues," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson said. "More people die from extreme heat than from hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and cold weather combined.”
AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok was live on the AccuWeather Network on April 30 to discuss what the weather will be like this summer in the United States.
Storms, monsoon to provide breaks from hot weather
Areas of the East that avoid the worst of the heat may face an uptick in showers and thunderstorms, including the risk of severe weather.
"The Gulf is warm and will lead to intense severe weather events into summer," Pastelok explained. The storms could be more frequent in June and July than they are in August, including the potential for intense groups of thunderstorms known as derechos.
Derechos unleash extreme winds over a large area, with the ability to level fields of corn, snap trees like twigs and cause power outages that last over a week. The zone that faces the highest risk of derechos includes the northern Plains, the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley.
Later in the summer, tropical storms and hurricanes that make landfall can contribute to tornado activity.
Lightning strikes the Empire State Building above the skyline of midtown Manhattan in New York City as seen from Weehawken, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
The North American monsoon is also forecast to ramp up in late June across the interior West and produce above-normal rainfall.
"The monsoon may be good for improvements on drought," Pastelok said. The above-average monsoon will help to bring up river and lake levels, while also providing some relief from the high heat.
The tradeoff will be flash flooding and mudslides when the worst of the monsoon-fueled thunderstorms strike.
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People should remain vigilant when outdoors any time thunderstorms are in the forecast, as June, July and August account for the highest number of lightning-related fatalities. Every thunderstorm poses a risk of lightning, and it only takes one strike to abruptly end a day at the beach, on the golf course or hiking in the mountains.
Drought to prime wildfire season
The same areas that experience some of the hottest weather compared to the historical average will also face worsening drought, which will cause the wildfire season to escalate quickly.
"Drought coverage will be widespread across the High Plains and West this summer," Pastelok said. This would be the opposite of last summer across the Midwest and northern Plains, where rainfall was more frequent throughout the summer months. "Drought can have a big impact on the growing season in this region, including spring wheat, corn and soybeans."
While the monsoon can provide much-needed moisture and help combat wildfires, the associated thunderstorms will also bring lightning strikes, which can ignite new blazes. There is a higher risk of these fire-starting thunderstorms at the onset of the monsoon when the landscape is at its driest.
Read AccuWeather's breakdown of the U.S. wildfire forecast.
Tropics could spawn storms early
A dynamic hurricane season is predicted for the Atlantic in 2025, and it could start quickly.
"Drought can improve quickly early in the summer from Florida to the Carolinas due to frequent cool fronts and tropical moisture," Pastelok said.
The same warm water that will promote thunderstorms across the East could also fuel tropical storms or even hurricanes in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic, especially in July and August. There is also the chance that a storm will develop before the official start to the season, which is June 1.
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken at 4:16 p.m. EDT on Friday, July 5, 2024, and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Beryl over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. (NOAA via AP)
Beryl was one of the most powerful hurricanes of the 2024 season. It initially spun up in late June, becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. It eventually generated dozens of tornadoes in the United States and resulted in power outages that lasted over a week.
AccuWeather is predicting 13 to 18 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to six direct U.S. impacts during the Atlantic hurricane season this year.
"Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained. "Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts."
Read the complete 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
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