Spring forecast 2025: US faces split between warm weather, lingering chill

The start of spring is right around the corner, but while some bask in early warmth, millions will still be reaching for their winter coats -- and potentially their snow shovels.

Springlike weather is just around the corner with warmer days, budding plants and blooming flowers. However, don't put away your snow boots and winter coats just yet, the changing of the seasons will come with some twists and turns, including snow, frost and a wintry chill for millions.

Meteorological spring gets underway on Saturday, March 1, while the March equinox marks the beginning of astronomical spring, which is at 5:01 a.m. EST on Thursday, March 20.

Where will winter weather continue through the start of spring?

The first weeks of spring may feel more like winter across the northern half of the United States as there is a turbulent transition between the seasons.

This past January was one of the coldest in years, causing more ice to form on the Great Lakes. The extensive ice cover will suppress temperatures across the Midwest and parts of the Northeast through the start of spring, according to AccuWeather Long-range Expert Paul Pastelok.

In the Pacific Northwest, the colder start to spring will be due to a persistent pattern of stormy weather. "The storm track in the West can retreat quickly and center more over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada by March," Pastelok said. "The transition to spring will be near average or faster across the central Rockies."

Lingering wintry weather will be a concern for farmers and gardeners alike across the East with late frost. A late frost is also possible across the Carolinas in March, which can lead to same damage to sensitive plants.

Frosty mornings will be more common across the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and interior Northeast. "The [frost] threat may last into the early to middle part of May," Pastelok added.

The tug-of-war between milder spring air and bursts of colder air could open the door for some late-season snow, especially across the interior Northeast and the Midwest, although snowfall is likely to be less frequent than in January and February.

The potential for snow, combined with the persistent chill, will benefit ski resorts across the East that have struggled with mild winters and little natural snow over the past few years.

Severe weather to rattle central, southern US

The upcoming severe weather season is expected to resemble last year's, with the frequency of damaging storms and tornadoes increasing as spring progresses. However, a key difference will be the epicenter of destructive storms.

"The focus will be more over the Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley for tornado coverage and severe damage, rather than Tornado Alley," explained Pastelok. "Chicago, St. Louis, Memphis—those are the cities to watch."

While March is not expected to have as many tornadoes as April and May, residents across the Plains and Southeast should remain vigilant. "One or two outbreaks are possible in March," Pastelok warned.

Cooler air around the Great Lakes will help to suppress widespread severe weather across most of the Midwest and Northeast during the first half of the season before storms expand their reach heading into May.

As rain, thunderstorms and severe weather threaten lives and property from the Plains through the Southeast, most of the events are forecast to miss Florida. "Dry and pleasant spring conditions may turn into early heat and drought conditions by May across Florida," Pastelok explained.

AccuWeather will release a detailed breakdown of the U.S. severe weather forecast on Wednesday, March 5.

Drought to intensify amid early heat

Spring warmth will waste no time arriving for millions across the southern United States, with summerlike heat even making an early appearance in some cities.

"The Southwest will remain dry and heat up quickly," Pastelok said. "Drought will expand and intensify throughout the region from Southern California to the southwestern Plains."

Arizona, New Mexico and western Texas are predicted to see some of the warmest weather, where temperatures throughout the spring could average more than 4 degrees above the historical average.

"We are concerned that there's going to be some low rivers and reservoirs going into the interior Southwest this coming spring, and that will really have an impact for the rest of 2025 as well," Pastelok explained.

Expanding and worsening drought paired with long spells of unusually warm weather will also set the stage for explosive wildfires from the Southwest into the Plains. This includes the Texas Panhandle where fast-moving fires scorched over 1,600 square miles of land from late February into early March of 2024.

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Worsening drought is also a concern for a swath of the northern Plains. "Storms have passed through this area with little snow or rain this winter so far," Pastelok explained. "This trend should continue."

What about La Nina?

One of the biggest factors meteorologists take into consideration when creating long-range forecasts is the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, as it can have far-reaching effects on weather patterns around the world.

Currently, La Niña conditions are ongoing, with water temperatures in this region reaching the threshold for a La Niña in late December. This phenomenon is the cold counterpart to El Niño.

"We are looking at a weak La Niña setup as we go into the start of the spring season," Pastelok explained. Even if La Niña ends during the spring, there is a lag where it can have a continual influence on the atmosphere and the overall storm track across North America.

La Niña can shift where the core of severe weather erupts over the U.S. during the spring and determine which part of the West Coast is the focal point of storms from the Pacific, and which parts of the country have more cooldowns than dramatic warmups.

The ongoing La Niña is not the traditional setup, with the coolest waters over the central Pacific, rather than the eastern Pacific. "This, with the combination of slightly cooler waters near the Northwest coast, can impact precipitation patterns and severe weather as we go into the spring season," Pastelok said.

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