Rain moves into Northeast, but key drought areas may miss out

While there will be some opportunities for rain coming up in the Northeast over the next week, not all areas may be drenched enough to alleviate drought and wildfire risk.

Drenching rain is moving into parts of the Northeast late Friday to Saturday evening, AccuWeather meteorologists say. However, some areas could miss out on the heaviest rain and with dry winds expected to follow, wildfire risk may ramp up again next week.

Very light winds from Tuesday to Thursday morning gave firefighters the chance to gain significant containment on the massive Jones Road Fire tearing across New Jersey. There are other fires in the region, including a pair in south-central Pennsylvania that have blossomed.

A south-southwest breeze will pick up Friday and could cause the fires to spread more rapidly once again. The temperature will also increase compared to earlier this week. Highs are forecast to be well into the 70s and lower 80s F in most locations in New Jersey and other parts of the mid-Atlantic.

As firefighters control the active part of the fires, smoke will diminish, but flareups and certain fuels can cause the amount of smoke to increase.

Aside from the threat of fire, visibility and air quality will be the main issues as flames continue to ravage the state. Downwind of the fire, smoke can cause air quality issues dozens of miles away. Farther south and west, where smoke has invaded the lower and middle parts of the atmosphere due to light winds, haze and the smell of smoke are possible.

During the first part of the weekend, higher humidity levels may keep some fuels moist as a storm swings through with sporadic rainfall ranging from spotty showers to a thorough soaking.

Areas from upstate New York to northern and central New England will likely be the greatest beneficiaries of the rain, with a general 0.50 inch to 1.50 inches in store.

Behind the rain or sporadic showers into Saturday night, winds will kick up.

"While it will be much cooler on Sunday, when compared to Friday, the gusty winds and very dry air will quickly dry out the brush and fallen leaves once again," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "That could boost the wildfire risk, depending how much rain fell on local areas from the storm earlier in the weekend."

Monday will likely be similar to Wednesday with light winds, sunshine and dry air. In much of New Jersey, highs will range from the mid-60s to the low 70s.

By Tuesday, however, warmth will build over the region on a quickening southwest breeze.

"Even though humidity levels are likely to rise on Tuesday, the combination of warmth, sunshine, a breeze and dry brush may lead to a rising wildfire risk," Anderson said.

Yet another storm will swing through on Tuesday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Northeast. Once again, the showers could be sporadic, with some areas in the mid-Atlantic missing the rainfall.

April has brought little rain to parts of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and southern New England. In some cases, rainfall has only been 25-50% of the historical average for the month that typically brings between 3 and 4 inches.

While drought conditions are not exceptional in the Northeast, many locations are experiencing abnormally dry soil conditions. Some areas are in the throes of a moderate to severe drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor.

You can check the air quality in your area anytime—for free—on the Accuweather app.

Our air pollution forecast models have been enhanced to provide you with superior accuracy - before, during and after wildfires - to help keep your family, friends and your business better prepared and informed.

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

Report a Typo