Pair of storms to slam northeastern US as April ends and May begins
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that while both storms they are tracking could cause disruptions, it’s the second of the two that is shaping up to be much more impactful.
AccuWeather meteorologists say the second of the two storms is shaping up to be more impactful than the first.
Two potent storms are expected to take aim at the northeastern United States at the start and conclusion of the upcoming weekend.
One storm could be more disruptive than the other in terms of adverse impacts on travel, outdoor plans and possible property damage along the Interstate 95 corridor, especially if a potential atmospheric river from the Caribbean Sea extends all the way to the Northeast, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
First storm to bring drenching rain, coastal hazards
The same storm that brought a foot of snow to the Colorado Rockies and drenching rain to drought-stricken areas of the southern Plains during the middle of the week will swing across the Southeast Thursday before overspreading the central Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic region Friday.
The impacts from the first storm in the Southeast will present a mixed bag of impacts ranging from needed rain to localized urban and small stream flooding, mainly from Thursday to Friday.
A number of locations in the Southern states may also be hit with severe weather prior to the end of the week.
Even though the first storm will be the weaker of the two in terms of atmospheric pressure that forecasters are focusing on for the Eastern states in the coming days, stiff winds along a portion of the coast will raise seas and surf.
"Winds are likely to be the strongest with the first storm from eastern North Carolina on Friday to New Jersey and the south shore of Long Island, New York, from Friday night to Saturday morning," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
East to southeast winds along the mid-Atlantic coast will average 15-25 mph, but gusts will range between 30 and 50 mph at the storm’s peak late this week.
Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion can occur at times of high tide with the first storm, Dombek added.
Rain from the first storm will be mainly beneficial, other than impacting outdoor activities and travel at the start of the weekend. It may take until the better part of Saturday before the rain from the first storm is able to push across eastern New England and fully depart the mid-Atlantic coast.
Late-weekend storm has potential to become a bomb cyclone
A storm can be seen over the Gulf of Alaska (center) on Tuesday, April 25, 2023. The storm is expected to head toward the northeastern U.S. by early next week. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
The second of the two looming storms on AccuWeather meteorologists' radar was located over the Gulf of Alaska in the North Pacific Tuesday.
The storm will roll from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Plains late this week and into the weekend. As it makes its journey across the U.S. the jet stream will grow stronger. AccuWeather meteorologists say the strength of the jet stream will help determine the timing, intensity and track of the second storm as it advances toward the Northeast.
As of Tuesday afternoon, AccuWeather meteorologists believe the storm will become strong enough to bring a period of heavy rain, gusty winds and raw conditions from parts of the Southeast and Midwest Sunday to Sunday night and to much of the Northeast from Sunday night to Monday.
There is a small chance the second storm strengthens quickly enough from Sunday to Monday to be dubbed a bomb cyclone, or undergo bombogenesis, which is when the central pressure of a storm plummets 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 mb) or more in 24 hours or less.
The storm has the potential to bring a quick dose of severe weather to the northeastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts Sunday as drenching rain develops over the interior Southeast and spreads quickly northward to the Great Lakes region. Snow can even fall on the back side of the storm over parts of the Upper Midwest as early as Saturday night.
As the storm moves along and strengthens, a secondary storm may form along the mid-Atlantic coast, which could accelerate winds and enhance the impacts of rain, above-normal tides and rough seas and surf from the mid-Atlantic region to New England.
An atmospheric river could develop with the storm late this weekend to early next week as well.
The storm may draw a narrow plume of tropical moisture that extends from the Caribbean Sea to the Northeast states, which will enhance rainfall rates," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "Some locations may pick up 3–4 inches of rain in several hours, which would certainly create flooding issues in low-lying and poor drainage areas."
Because of the proximity of the two storms, a portion of the mid-Atlantic coast will likely be hit with a second round of strong winds, rough surf, above-normal tides and beach erosion in less than 48 hours.
"The strongest winds will be on the front side of the second storm with a 6- to 12-hour period where easterly gusts to 60 mph are possible along the coast from Delaware and New Jersey to Maine," Anderson said. "These onshore winds combined with astronomical tides will lead to coastal flooding and beach erosion, with the highest probability for large waves and inundation in the coastal areas of Massachusetts, such as in Scituate, just south of Boston, from late Sunday night to Monday."
Waves churned up by a nor'easter smashed into a seawall in Scituate, Massachusetts, on Oct. 27, 2021, crashing down on the roofs of waterside homes.
With the spring leaf out well underway, the combination of wet ground and strong winds may cause trees to topple and power outages to ramp up, Anderson added.
The combination of drenching rain, a quickening wind and dipping temperatures will make for raw and stormy conditions. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures may hover in the 30s F in some locations.
Travel in the upper portion of the mid-Atlantic could be a mess from Sunday afternoon to early Monday if an atmospheric river develops and fully engages with the storm. Only if the storm is slow to strengthen might much of the mid-Atlantic be spared the heaviest rain and strongest winds. In that case, New England may still be in the storm's full fury instead for a time on Monday.
Motorists should expect delays on the highways and be alert for ponding in streets and poor drainage areas, experts say. Some roads and neighborhoods along the coast prone to flooding during strong storms could take on water. This includes areas from southeastern Virginia to Delaware, eastern Maryland, New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern and eastern New England.
Some airline delays may develop at the major hubs such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago and Detroit Sunday.
Major airline disruptions due to strong winds, heavy rain and poor visibility are likely to occur as early as late Sunday afternoon at the busy Northeast hubs from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, as well as in regional airports.
The proximity of the storm from late this weekend through early next week will suppress daytime temperatures due to clouds, rain and wind. Nighttime temperatures may not dip all that much until the storm departs.
One potential benefit of the upcoming storms will be their widespread and much-needed rain. Dry, windy conditions in recent weeks have led to a high risk of wildfires in parts of the Northeast.
Late-spring frost, freezes to persist in Midwest, Northeast
Where and when the sky clears amid the cold air in the storm's wake may set the stage for a new round of late-night and early-morning frosts and freezes from the Midwest to the interior Northeast during the middle and latter part of next week.
For those hoping that chilly weather goes back into hibernation, a more substantial shift back to warmer conditions is not likely until the middle to the latter part of May, according to AccuWeather’s team of long-range meteorologists.
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