Nor’easter to bring major coastal flooding; potential for hurricane-force gusts in New England
A strengthening September nor’easter will worsen coastal flooding from North Carolina to New York through Friday, then threaten New England with damaging winds, power outages and heavy rain this weekend.
Especially along eastern Long Island and the Massachusetts coast, where strong winds will push water toward shore and could damage coastal property.
The full fury of a significant September nor'easter will target New England, where high winds lead to power outages and heavy rain swamps outdoor activities this weekend.
The storm and its effects are occurring through the full moon this weekend, which will raise tide levels and lead to major coastal flooding. Long-duration pounding surf will cause extensive beach erosion from North Carolina to southern Maine.
This image of the western and central Atlantic was captured on Thursday morning, Sept. 24, 2026, and shows the brewing nor'easter with its attachment to a front (center). Newly reformed Tropical Storm Fay appears to the right, well out to sea. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"This storm may be remembered for its destructive coastal flooding and severe beach erosion, especially along eastern Long Island and the Massachusetts coast," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
Storm surge, tidal flooding into Friday
The pressure difference between high pressure over the interior Northeast and developing low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast is strengthening northeast winds from North Carolina to New York. These winds are pushing ocean and bay waters toward shore, causing coastal flooding. Flooding will be worst around high tide through Friday evening in much of the mid-Atlantic region.
Water levels will be 2-3 feet above the average monthly tide level, with some locations approaching 6 feet above that level. The worst conditions are forecast for southeastern Virginia, where water will become trapped at the lower end of the Chesapeake Bay, causing backups along the region's tidal rivers. Areas in Virginia Beach, Norfolk and Newport News, Virginia, will be inundated for hours at a time.
Farther north from the Delmarva Peninsula to northern New Jersey, tides will be 1-2 feet above the monthly average, with some areas near 3 feet above.
Storm to strengthen, hook into New England this weekend
The nor’easter will affect southeastern New England from Friday into Sunday. The strongest winds and heaviest rain are expected from Friday night through Saturday night across Rhode Island, central and eastern Massachusetts, Connecticut, Long Island, New York, southeastern New Hampshire and the southern Maine coast.
Damaging winds will pose the greatest threat across southeastern New England, with gusts potentially reaching hurricane force and causing tree damage and power outages.
"Many trees still have their leaves, which catch more wind and place additional strain on their roots, further increasing the risk for trees to come down and may also increase the number of power outages as compared to similar storms," Porter said.
Rain last week left the soil soggy, increasing the risk that strong winds will uproot trees, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
Falling trees could damage power lines and cause widespread outages.
As the storm approaches New England, strengthening east-northeast winds will push Atlantic water toward shore. Water will pile up in Cape Cod Bay and other bays, sounds, harbors and inlets from Long Island to Maine, flooding low-lying coastal areas.
Major coastal flooding is likely along the northern shore of Long Island, as well as the southeastern part of Long Island and much of the east coast of Massachusetts.
The storm will draw moisture northward from the subtropical Atlantic, fueling heavy rain across southeastern New England.
Periods of heavy rain across southeastern New England through the weekend could flood streets and small streams, disrupt travel and force changes to outdoor plans.
Rainfall will generally total 1-2 inches from eastern Maryland to coastal Maine, with heavier amounts across parts of southeastern New England. Totals of 4-8 inches are forecast from central Massachusetts to Cape Cod, and into far eastern Long Island. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 13 inches.
Improvement coming for mid-Atlantic this weekend, but slowly
Dry air from the Northeast's interior will sweep southward in the mid-Atlantic later this week, ending the rain and clearing the sky as the storm takes aim at New England and southeastern New York.
The storm is forecast to loop toward New England, keeping its strongest winds and heaviest rain away from New York City and areas southward to Delaware and eastern Maryland. However, moderate to locally major coastal flooding is still expected around high tide through Friday night. The highest tides from the Bronx and Queens to Boston will occur over the weekend.
As winds turn more northerly this weekend, coastal water levels should gradually fall across much of the mid-Atlantic. Localized flooding may persist along some back bays, where winds can keep water piled against the shoreline.
Tropical development possible near New England and elsewhere in Atlantic
"Given that the developing nor'easter will be slowly moving over the very warm water of the Gulf Stream for two or three days, the storm may take on some characteristics that would resemble a tropical storm. Such hybrid storms are called subtropical storms," Porter said. "Regardless of classification, the storm will be impactful, especially for coastal areas."
Gonzalo and Hanna are the next two names on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season list.
AccuWeather meteorologists have labeled the cluster of showers and thunderstorms near the African coast as a tropical rainstorm, which will track close enough to the Cabo Verde Islands to bring impacts with rain, wind and rough seas.
Fay has regenerated into a tropical storm over the central Atlantic but is not expected to affect land.
Fay regenerated over the middle of the Atlantic as a depression on Wednesday evening. Some strengthening is forecast in the short term.
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