AccuWeather's 2020 South America winter forecast
By
Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor
Published May 27, 2020 4:15 PM EDT
Weather during the winter of 2019 in South America made global headlines as massive fires scorched the Amazon and charred portions of Brazil that don't typically burn. Other areas of the continent were gripped by a serious drought. AccuWeather’s 2020 winter outlook for South America was released this week by a team of international forecasters who examined whether these storylines will play out again and where conditions may be different.
This long-range team of meteorologists is led by Jason Nicholls, who has been forecasting for locations around the globe for more than 20 years and authors AccuWeather’s Global Weather Blog.
Nicholls and his team cautioned that a lack of rain will set the stage for another active fire season across the Amazon Basin, setting up a repeat of a scenario that garnered international attention in 2019 as blazes scorched areas across the world’s largest tropical rainforest.
This winter may be a much different one than those in years past for other regions, especially across Colombia and Venezuela, countries that are suffering from a prolonged drought.
Winter 2020 will also be significantly different than others over the past few decades as every country copes with the coronavirus pandemic. Many countries have issued strict lockdowns, but the weather is also believed to be one possible factor in its spread, with experts especially focused on the winter months when conditions typically become more conducive for other respiratory illnesses, such as the flu, to spread.
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Americas as the new epicenter for COVID-19 at a briefing on Tuesday, with Brazil having the second-highest number of confirmed cases globally behind only the United States. Confirmed cases in Brazil climbed to nearly 400,000 by late May, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University. The United States has reported a total of more than 1,681,000 confirmed cases.
Rio's Christ the Redeemer statue is lit up as if wearing a protective mask amid the new coronavirus pandemic, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, May 3, 2020. The message "Mask saves" is written in Portuguese. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
Even though uncertainty around how precisely the pandemic will unfold reigns, there's sure to be plenty of weather factors to contend with this season. AccuWeather's forecast for the coming months is broken down region by region below:
One of the wettest winters in years is in the offing for the northern region of South America, with much-needed rain in store for areas that have been plagued by drought.
“Much of Colombia, Venezuela and far northern Brazil can have better rains in June, July and August as compared to recent years,” Nicholls said.
“These rains can help ease long-term drought problems in these areas, but drought problems will linger in some areas,” Nicholls added.
Rainy spells can also be expected over Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and into northeastern Brazil. This zone has had pockets of drought in recent years but not as bad as the conditions farther west.
This map using data from the national Drought Mitigation Center shows which areas in South America are experiencing drought (red) and which areas are unusually wet (blue). (NASA Earth Observatory)
Frequent rains will help to slowly fill the depleted water reservoirs across the region, not only to help rebuild the water supply but also to begin to stabilize power production.
“If these rains come to pass as expected, it may prove beneficial for hydroelectric power generation in Venezuela this season,” Nicholls said. Hydroelectricity accounts for more than 60% of Venezuela’s power supply, according to the International Energy Agency. With the country relying so heavily on hydroelectricity, the low water levels have contributed to rolling blackouts, particularly across the western states, according to the news website Venezuelanalysis. These blackouts are worse than they have been before as many families are staying at home due to COVID-19 lockdowns, which began in mid-March and will continue until at least the middle of June.
Reservoirs in Colombia have also reached historic lows with water levels averaging just 32%, Renewables Now reported. The seasonal rains will help improve the water levels ahead of next summer when energy demands increase, but it will take more than this one season for the reservoirs to return to normal levels.
A seasonably dry summer is shaping up for much of the Amazon, which brings the threat of a repeat of the devastating fires that burned across the region last year.
“The dryness can result in renewed wildfire concerns across the Amazon basin, especially late in the season,” Nicholls said.
In the winter of 2019, news of the fires burning across the Amazon made waves around the world and people donated millions of dollars to help local communities battle the situation.
The fires did not break all-time records, but they did have some irregularities, according to experts.
“There is no question the 2019 Amazon fires were unusual, but they were unusual in specific areas and ways,” said Douglas Morton, chief of the Biospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “Fortunately, we did not see forest fires burning uncontrolled through the rainforest like we have during past drought years. What we did see was a worrisome increase in deforestation fires in certain parts of Brazil.”
Fires that ignite this year are likely to reach peak activity around the same time as they did last year in July and August before the wet season begins to return in the spring.
Even areas in South America far away from the Amazon Basin could endure some impacts of the fires as smoky air lingers over parts of the continent.
In this Sept. 3, 2019, file photo, Brazilian soldier puts out fires at the Nova Fronteira region in Novo Progresso, Brazil. The fires that swept parts of the Amazon this year added to global worries about a warming climate, as well as the sense of urgency at the Climate Action Summit at the United Nations. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)
The fire threat will primarily focus on the Amazon Basin, but the dry conditions will extend all the way to the western coast of South America and southward into Bolivia.
“Drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions are expected from Ecuador and western Peru to central Chile. There will still be occasional rain in Ecuador and western Peru, but overall, these areas will tend to be drier than normal,” Nicholls said.
This includes Quito and Guayaquil, Ecuador, Lima District and Arequipa, Peru, and La Paz, Bolivia.
One of the factors that will dictate the dry pattern across this region is the development of La Niña, which is a climate pattern that occurs when the waters near the equator of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal and is the opposite of El Niño. This change in the ocean water temperature can impact global weather patterns, including those along the coast of South America.
“This cooling trend can result in a drier end to the season across Ecuador and Peru following a more normal rainfall to open the season,“ Nicholls explained.
Rounds of rain will occasionally soak regions south of the Amazon, helping regions that have experienced unusually dry conditions in recent months.
“Precipitation wise, we are expecting occasional rounds of rain across the Pampas of Argentina into northern Argentina, Uruguay and southeastern Brazil,” Nicholls said.
The rain in southeastern Brazil will help to offset the dry summer and autumn experienced across the region. “Rainfall in the summer of 2020, and specifically in March, has been as much as one-third below normal in Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná states,” NASA said.
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While rains are forecast to return, Nicholls warns that the season may end on a dry note.
“If late dryness does develop in these areas, then there can be negative impacts for winter grains as the crop moves toward the reproductive stage heading toward spring,” Nicholls said.
West of the Andes, largely dry weather will prevail, including in Santiago, Chile.
“The best chance of these rain events will be early in the season with a lesser chance of rain late in the season,” Nicholls said.
As dry and mild conditions are expected across much of central and northern regions of the continent, the southern extent may have to deal with a few spells of a wintry chill.
The waves of cold air will be infrequent, but farmers in particular will need to watch the weather closely for when these cold intrusions arrive.
“One or two cold blasts are possible into the Pampas of Argentina, especially during the middle to latter part of the season,” Nicholls said. “The cold shots can lead to pockets of minor crop damage in southern Buenos Aires province, La Pampa and parts of Cordoba province. “
Late winter will also bring the only chances for frost to develop as far north as the Sao Paulo state of Brazil. “Cold weather that could threaten crops in Brazil, including the coffee crop, looks limited,” Nicholls added.
Temperatures do not need to reach freezing (0 C, 32 F) for coffee plants to be damaged. According to Spilling the Beans, coffee can start to be damaged when temperatures dip to 4 C (39 F). This is sometimes called "coffee frost."
Day worker Carlos Roberto picks off coffee beans at the "Fazenda da Lagoa" farm in the mountainous region of the city of Monte Belo in the central eastern state of Minas Gerais, 250 km from Sao Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday, April 24, 2002.(AP Photo / Dado Galdieri)
Farther south in the largely unpopulated area of Patagonia, storms are expected to unload rounds of rain and mountain snow throughout the season.
“Far southern Chile will have rounds of storminess with near- to perhaps slightly above-normal precipitation with temperatures also near to above normal,” Nicholls said.
This could be to the benefit of some of the ski resorts located in the southern Andes, if local governments permit resorts to remain open during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Weather Forecasts
AccuWeather's 2020 South America winter forecast
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor
Published May 27, 2020 4:15 PM EDT
Weather during the winter of 2019 in South America made global headlines as massive fires scorched the Amazon and charred portions of Brazil that don't typically burn. Other areas of the continent were gripped by a serious drought. AccuWeather’s 2020 winter outlook for South America was released this week by a team of international forecasters who examined whether these storylines will play out again and where conditions may be different.
This long-range team of meteorologists is led by Jason Nicholls, who has been forecasting for locations around the globe for more than 20 years and authors AccuWeather’s Global Weather Blog.
Nicholls and his team cautioned that a lack of rain will set the stage for another active fire season across the Amazon Basin, setting up a repeat of a scenario that garnered international attention in 2019 as blazes scorched areas across the world’s largest tropical rainforest.
This winter may be a much different one than those in years past for other regions, especially across Colombia and Venezuela, countries that are suffering from a prolonged drought.
Winter 2020 will also be significantly different than others over the past few decades as every country copes with the coronavirus pandemic. Many countries have issued strict lockdowns, but the weather is also believed to be one possible factor in its spread, with experts especially focused on the winter months when conditions typically become more conducive for other respiratory illnesses, such as the flu, to spread.
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Americas as the new epicenter for COVID-19 at a briefing on Tuesday, with Brazil having the second-highest number of confirmed cases globally behind only the United States. Confirmed cases in Brazil climbed to nearly 400,000 by late May, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University. The United States has reported a total of more than 1,681,000 confirmed cases.
Rio's Christ the Redeemer statue is lit up as if wearing a protective mask amid the new coronavirus pandemic, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, May 3, 2020. The message "Mask saves" is written in Portuguese. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
Even though uncertainty around how precisely the pandemic will unfold reigns, there's sure to be plenty of weather factors to contend with this season. AccuWeather's forecast for the coming months is broken down region by region below:
Drought-busting rain returns to Colombia, Venezuela
One of the wettest winters in years is in the offing for the northern region of South America, with much-needed rain in store for areas that have been plagued by drought.
“Much of Colombia, Venezuela and far northern Brazil can have better rains in June, July and August as compared to recent years,” Nicholls said.
“These rains can help ease long-term drought problems in these areas, but drought problems will linger in some areas,” Nicholls added.
Rainy spells can also be expected over Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and into northeastern Brazil. This zone has had pockets of drought in recent years but not as bad as the conditions farther west.
This map using data from the national Drought Mitigation Center shows which areas in South America are experiencing drought (red) and which areas are unusually wet (blue). (NASA Earth Observatory)
Frequent rains will help to slowly fill the depleted water reservoirs across the region, not only to help rebuild the water supply but also to begin to stabilize power production.
“If these rains come to pass as expected, it may prove beneficial for hydroelectric power generation in Venezuela this season,” Nicholls said. Hydroelectricity accounts for more than 60% of Venezuela’s power supply, according to the International Energy Agency. With the country relying so heavily on hydroelectricity, the low water levels have contributed to rolling blackouts, particularly across the western states, according to the news website Venezuelanalysis. These blackouts are worse than they have been before as many families are staying at home due to COVID-19 lockdowns, which began in mid-March and will continue until at least the middle of June.
Reservoirs in Colombia have also reached historic lows with water levels averaging just 32%, Renewables Now reported. The seasonal rains will help improve the water levels ahead of next summer when energy demands increase, but it will take more than this one season for the reservoirs to return to normal levels.
Fires to burn across dry Amazon Basin
A seasonably dry summer is shaping up for much of the Amazon, which brings the threat of a repeat of the devastating fires that burned across the region last year.
“The dryness can result in renewed wildfire concerns across the Amazon basin, especially late in the season,” Nicholls said.
In the winter of 2019, news of the fires burning across the Amazon made waves around the world and people donated millions of dollars to help local communities battle the situation.
The fires did not break all-time records, but they did have some irregularities, according to experts.
“There is no question the 2019 Amazon fires were unusual, but they were unusual in specific areas and ways,” said Douglas Morton, chief of the Biospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “Fortunately, we did not see forest fires burning uncontrolled through the rainforest like we have during past drought years. What we did see was a worrisome increase in deforestation fires in certain parts of Brazil.”
Fires that ignite this year are likely to reach peak activity around the same time as they did last year in July and August before the wet season begins to return in the spring.
Even areas in South America far away from the Amazon Basin could endure some impacts of the fires as smoky air lingers over parts of the continent.
In this Sept. 3, 2019, file photo, Brazilian soldier puts out fires at the Nova Fronteira region in Novo Progresso, Brazil. The fires that swept parts of the Amazon this year added to global worries about a warming climate, as well as the sense of urgency at the Climate Action Summit at the United Nations. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)
The fire threat will primarily focus on the Amazon Basin, but the dry conditions will extend all the way to the western coast of South America and southward into Bolivia.
“Drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions are expected from Ecuador and western Peru to central Chile. There will still be occasional rain in Ecuador and western Peru, but overall, these areas will tend to be drier than normal,” Nicholls said.
This includes Quito and Guayaquil, Ecuador, Lima District and Arequipa, Peru, and La Paz, Bolivia.
One of the factors that will dictate the dry pattern across this region is the development of La Niña, which is a climate pattern that occurs when the waters near the equator of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal and is the opposite of El Niño. This change in the ocean water temperature can impact global weather patterns, including those along the coast of South America.
“This cooling trend can result in a drier end to the season across Ecuador and Peru following a more normal rainfall to open the season,“ Nicholls explained.
Chile, Argentina and southeastern Brazil
Rounds of rain will occasionally soak regions south of the Amazon, helping regions that have experienced unusually dry conditions in recent months.
“Precipitation wise, we are expecting occasional rounds of rain across the Pampas of Argentina into northern Argentina, Uruguay and southeastern Brazil,” Nicholls said.
The rain in southeastern Brazil will help to offset the dry summer and autumn experienced across the region. “Rainfall in the summer of 2020, and specifically in March, has been as much as one-third below normal in Brazil’s Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná states,” NASA said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
While rains are forecast to return, Nicholls warns that the season may end on a dry note.
“If late dryness does develop in these areas, then there can be negative impacts for winter grains as the crop moves toward the reproductive stage heading toward spring,” Nicholls said.
West of the Andes, largely dry weather will prevail, including in Santiago, Chile.
“The best chance of these rain events will be early in the season with a lesser chance of rain late in the season,” Nicholls said.
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As dry and mild conditions are expected across much of central and northern regions of the continent, the southern extent may have to deal with a few spells of a wintry chill.
The waves of cold air will be infrequent, but farmers in particular will need to watch the weather closely for when these cold intrusions arrive.
“One or two cold blasts are possible into the Pampas of Argentina, especially during the middle to latter part of the season,” Nicholls said. “The cold shots can lead to pockets of minor crop damage in southern Buenos Aires province, La Pampa and parts of Cordoba province. “
Late winter will also bring the only chances for frost to develop as far north as the Sao Paulo state of Brazil. “Cold weather that could threaten crops in Brazil, including the coffee crop, looks limited,” Nicholls added.
Temperatures do not need to reach freezing (0 C, 32 F) for coffee plants to be damaged. According to Spilling the Beans, coffee can start to be damaged when temperatures dip to 4 C (39 F). This is sometimes called "coffee frost."
Day worker Carlos Roberto picks off coffee beans at the "Fazenda da Lagoa" farm in the mountainous region of the city of Monte Belo in the central eastern state of Minas Gerais, 250 km from Sao Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday, April 24, 2002.(AP Photo / Dado Galdieri)
Farther south in the largely unpopulated area of Patagonia, storms are expected to unload rounds of rain and mountain snow throughout the season.
“Far southern Chile will have rounds of storminess with near- to perhaps slightly above-normal precipitation with temperatures also near to above normal,” Nicholls said.
This could be to the benefit of some of the ski resorts located in the southern Andes, if local governments permit resorts to remain open during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.