Bay of Bengal tropical threat

There are no named tropical cyclones in any of the basins at the current time, but we are continuing to watch the Bay of Bengal for possible development. However, development will be slower than expected earlier as the MJO pulse responsible for the development of a low over the southern Andaman Sea has weakened and moved away from the Indian Ocean.

The low that has been near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands has weakened, but a weak, low-level circulation remains. Significant strengthening of this feature is unlikely through the weekend. Things get cloudier when heading into next week as the models show two main ideas.

Courtesy of the IMD

The ECMWF and its ensemble mean favor the idea of the low near the islands finally strengthening next week as it lifts north-northwestward into the southeastern Bay of Bengal. The models strengthen the low as it is shown to turn to the north-northeast before heading into Myanmar late next week.

The GFS and GPP from the IMD favor a new low forming close to Sri Lanka early next week then strengthen the low as it tracks toward the north-northeast just off eastern India. The GFS favors a track into Bangladesh or Myanmar around mid-May. The GFS is far stronger with the feature than other modeling and is likely too strong.

An equatorial Rossby Wave is still being shown to push into the Bay of Bengal which would suggest there is a chance for development over the bay next week. As a result, we are still watching for a depression or deep depression to develop next week with a low chance to become a cyclonic storm. The overall track will remain unclear until we have a well defined system, so areas from Sri Lanka and eastern India to Myanmar are still in play for impacts.