The rare triple La Nina is waning with a weak central Pacific La Nina expected and sea-surface temperatures expected in March. The atmosphere is still lagging the changing sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, so we are expected a La Nina-like atmospheric pattern early in the spring followed by neutral ENSO conditions mid- to late spring. El Nino conditions can develop late in the year, but neutral conditions should prevail much of the spring. Here is a look at forecast sea-surface temperatures:

Courtesy APEC Climate Center and WMO

Courtesy IMME and NMME

Warm waters in the western tropical Pacific may allow for early tropical development over the Philippine Sea which can favor tropical impacts from the Philippines into southeast Asia during the season. However, the main development region can expand eastward late in the spring which may allow for tropical activity east of the Mariana Islands.

Before looking at the forecast, here is what our analog years show:

Now to look at specific regions…

Korean Peninsula, eastern China and Japan:

A mild spring is expected across much of the region, but temperatures can be closer to historical averages in far southeast China. Precipitation is expected to average near to below historical averages but can be above historical averages in far northeast China, parts of North Korea and northern Japan. However, we are forecasting a turn to a wetter pattern to develop over southern Japan as well as far southeast China in May.

There can be enough cold air for snow, including sea-effect snow, in northern Japan during March into April.

Taiwan:

Temperatures will average near to above historical averages with precipitation expected to be below historical averages in March and April. A wetter pattern may develop in May as the mei-yu front advances toward the island.

Philippines and Southeast Asia:

As mentioned above, tropical threats and warm sea-surface temperatures should favor a wetter-than-usual spring across many of these areas. However, cooling of waters off Indonesia should result in a drier spring in 2023 than recent years across much of Malaysia and Indonesia. This should lessen the risk of flooding across these areas.

Clouds and precipitation can result in temperatures averaging near to perhaps slightly below historical averages across Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The Philippines should have temperatures near to above historical averages.

South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar):

There should continue to be western disturbances that bring precipitation to northern Afghanistan and northern Pakistan to far northwest India, especially in early to midspring. Much of the rest of the region should be seasonally dry, but there can be some early-season rains in Sri Lanka and far southern India. There is also the possibility of pre-monsoonal rains into these areas. These rains may result in temperatures closer to historical averages in southern India and Sri Lanka.

A drier winter than previous years may result in a quicker buildup of heat elsewhere with life-threatening heat waves possible in Pakistan and India, especially from late March into May. Any pre-monsoonal rains later in May can help ease heat concerns.

Middle East:

Systems should continue to bring opportunities for precipitation to portions of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and western Iran at least early in the season, with precipitation expected to average near to above historical averages. However, drier conditions are forecast from around the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan into Kazakhstan. Much of the region will turn seasonally drier late in the season.

Much of the region will be warmer than historical averages during the spring, with the chance for bouts of extreme heat possible later in April and May. The best chance for heat will be from the Arabian Peninsula into Kuwait, southern Iraq and portions of southern Iran.

Severe Cyclonic Storm Asani Courtesy NASA

There is risk for a tropical development in the northern Indian Ocean, especially in April and May, which may be a wildcard for more precipitation than forecast along the east coast of India to Bangladesh into Myanmar as well as portions of the southern Arabian Peninsula. We are forecasting one or two depressions or stronger to develop in the Bay of Bengal, with the best chance coming for such system occurring in April and May. The Arabian Sea should again be less active, but there is the possibility for one depression or stronger system to form in the basin late in the season.

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