The 2018 Canada spring outlook

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1. Cold will linger across much of western and central Canada through the first half of spring. This will favor an extended ski season across much of western Canada (current snowpack in the western ski areas is in excellent shape) with more opportunities for significant snowfall in the Rockies and Coastal Range into April.

2. Combination of the slow warmup, reduced snowpack and drier-than-normal (drought) conditions will likely result in a below-average risk of significant spring flooding across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, including the city of Winnipeg. Concerned drought may grow later in the spring into the summer across this region.

3. March and April look cool and wet compared to normal across southwestern BC, including the Vancouver area, however, pattern should reverse by May with noticeably warmer and drier weather.

4. Primary storm track this spring is expected to be directed up into the Great Lakes region, which will lead to a higher number of days with rain or snow from much of Ontario through western Quebec. The combination of this stormier pattern, snow melt and saturated ground may lead to an increased risk of spring flooding across Ontario and Quebec. This pattern will also lead to more cloudier and cooler days compared to normal during the season. This includes the cities of Thunder Bay, Windsor, Toronto and Ottawa. The breakup of lake ice across the Great Lakes region may be slower than normal this season.

5. Combination of the expected primary storm track and above-normal ocean water temperatures will lead to a slightly milder spring compared to normal from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland, including the cities of Halifax and St. John's.

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