5 ways the Summer Olympics could be affected by the weather
By
Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer
Updated Jul 19, 2021 12:20 PM EDT
The Olympic media center was flooded just days before it was set to officially open after heavy rain hit Tokyo, Japan, on July 11.
Mother Nature didn't earn an Olympic qualifying birth for any particular country, but she will certainly be an impactful participant at the Summer Games, which are set to begin this week in Japan.
Tokyo's typically brutal summer heat, which forecasters say may look different this year, will be one thing for athletes and organizers to contend with. Another factor, which forecasters are calling a "wildcard," could be the effects of a potential typhoon. Either way, the difference of a few degrees in temperature or a few gusts of wind could dictate how many athletes perform.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls has decades of international forecasting experience and said there is one wildcard for fans to keep an eye out for.
Here are some of the most noteworthy weather factors to keep an eye on, along with which events could be most hampered by the weather.
A woman walks by the Olympic rings installed by the Nippon Bashi bridge in Tokyo on Thursday, July 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Hiro Komae)
Per Olympic tradition, the Summer Games will kick off with an extravagant opening ceremony in Tokyo on July 23. What the grand ceremony might look like remains unclear, as organizers have been tight-lipped about the processions, but the pageantry of athletes marching into the host stadium with their country's flags will still occur.
Recent opening ceremonies, such as the 2018 Winter Games in South Korea, have included fireworks as part of the show. Regardless of the organizers' plans to use pyrotechnics or not, Nicholls said the athletes will likely be treated to a mostly dry evening.
"Overall, it looks like it may be dry for the opening ceremony on the 23rd, but cannot completely rule out a stray shower," he said. "The drier pattern may carry into early the week of the 26th."
A man wearing a protective mask to help curb the spread of the coronavirus walks in the rain past a banner of Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Thursday, May 13, 2021, in Tokyo. The Japanese capital confirmed more than 1,000 new coronavirus cases on Thursday. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
The coronavirus pandemic has dominated the headlines as the biggest threat facing the rescheduled Summer Games, but Nicholls said tropical dangers that could brew in the Pacific Ocean can't be counted out. According to the AccuWeather Pacific hurricane season forecast, the basin is forecast to see 14 to 18 named storms this season, of which six to 10 could reach hurricane strength.
Mainland Japan is forecast to remain clear of In-fa, which developed into a tropical storm on Sunday over the Philippine, but Nicholls still called the possibility for a storm to hit the island a "wildcard" with the potential for more development across the basin prior to the start of the Games.
"While In-fa is forecast to track west over the southern Ryukyu Islands, staying well south of mainland Japan before threatening China, another storm may develop later in the week and has potential to track toward Japan," added AccuWeather Meteorologist Maura Kelly.
Rain clouds move in over National Stadium Wednesday, June 23, 2021, in Tokyo as the opening ceremony for Tokyo Olympics approaches within 30 days. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
In an effort to avoid Tokyo's brutal summer heat, Olympic organizers opted to move both the marathon and the long-distance race walks out of the capital city and into the northern city of Sapporo. Although the athletes will be 500 miles away from the rest of the Olympic athletes in Tokyo, they will greatly appreciate the lower temperatures come race day.
Both the men's and women's marathons are scheduled to begin at 7 a.m. on the final weekend of Olympic competition, with the women's on Aug. 7 and the men's on Aug. 8, the same day as the closing ceremony.
The early starting time could be crucial for avoiding the heat, Nicholls said. Normal high daily temperatures for the city are around 77 degrees Fahrenheit for that period, but Nicholls said they could be even higher come race day.
"There is a good chance the temperature will be warmer than normal in this period, with daytime highs in the 80s and potentially around 90 F," Nicholls said. "The earlier start time should help avoid the worst of the heat."
Officials made the decision to relocate the marathon in 2019 after watching how the weather affected the 2018 World Marathon Championship, hosted in Qatar. There, even despite starting the race at midnight, temperatures above 90 degrees caused runners to collapse and 46 athletes dropped out of the race. World champion Lelisa Desisa called the hot conditions "dangerous."
In this Aug. 15, 2019, file photo, athletes dive into the water at the start line during a women's triathlon test event at Odaiba Marine Park, a venue for marathon swimming and triathlon at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, in Tokyo. The IOC moved next year’s Tokyo Olympic marathons and race walks out of the Japanese capital to avoid the stifling heat and humidity. Some swimmers and an 11,000-member coaching body want similar treatment: find an alternative to the distance-swimming venue in Tokyo Bay known as the “Odaiba Marine Park.”(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
The Games won't just be restricted to on-land competition, but competitors in events such as the triathlon and sailing will need to keep an eye on water conditions.
The men's and women's triathlons will be held on July 25 and 26, respectively, with the 1.5 km swim legs held in Tokyo Bay. While there have been concerns about the water quality in the bay, with one athlete comparing it to a toilet, will competitors also need to worry about the weather impacts?
Potentially, Nicholls said, especially if tropical development proves unfavorable for the athletes.
"There is the potential a tropical cyclone develops over the northeast Philippine Sea later next week," Nicholls said a week out from the opening ceremony. "There is low to medium confidence in development but the track of any system remains unclear but some models suggest a track near Tokyo around the 25th or 26th, which could cause a postponement of the triathlon."
Enoshima Yacht Harbor, where sailing for Tokyo 2020 Olympics will be held, is seen Feb. 19, 2021, in Fujisawa, south of Tokyo. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
If the system fails to develop or misses Toyko, Nicholls said the waters should be relatively calm with water temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, which is in the ideal range for competitors.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
A similar situation faces sailing competitors, who will be competing in the Enoshima Yacht Harbor in Enoshima, located about 30 miles south of Tokyo. There, races will stretch from July 25 to Aug. 4. Like the triathlon impacts, Nicholls said "the big wildcard" will be the potential tropical system that could cause major scheduling disruptions.
Toward the end of the two-and-a-half-week-long Games, pesky thunderstorms could come into play for outdoor events. The Japan National Stadium, where the opening and closing ceremonies -- as well as the track and field events -- will be held, is an open-air stadium with a half-covered roof, meaning storms could impact events.
This could prove potentially worrisome if the timing aligns with events scheduled later into the Games.
"Showers and thunderstorms could come into play for outdoor events in some medal rounds later in the games," Nicholls said. "Hail does not appear to be a big threat at this point, so lightning, downpours and strong wind gusts would be the main concerns."
The bigger story, however, is the heat. For years, experts have worried that the recent trend of dangerous summer heat waves in Japan could be a disaster for the Summer Games.
Just three summers ago, Tokyo saw an all-time high temperature of 106 F amid a nasty heat wave, which claimed dozens of lives, according to The Wall Street Journal. At the time, many were questioning whether the dates of the Games should be adjusted to avoid another heat-related disaster.
But this year, Nicholls said athletes can breath a sigh of relief as temperatures are forecast to remain in line with annual averages.
In northern Japan, he said temperatures could be slightly higher than normal, but temperatures around the 85 F forecast high will be far more bearable than recent summers.
"It looks like highs will be around 85 F (29 C) on the 23rd, which is actually near normal," Nicholls said. "I suspect temperatures are near to slightly above normal around Tokyo for much of the Games. Sapporo will be warmer than normal but not seeing extreme heat; mostly looks like highs in the mid- to upper 80s."
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Sports
5 ways the Summer Olympics could be affected by the weather
By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer
Updated Jul 19, 2021 12:20 PM EDT
The Olympic media center was flooded just days before it was set to officially open after heavy rain hit Tokyo, Japan, on July 11.
Mother Nature didn't earn an Olympic qualifying birth for any particular country, but she will certainly be an impactful participant at the Summer Games, which are set to begin this week in Japan.
Tokyo's typically brutal summer heat, which forecasters say may look different this year, will be one thing for athletes and organizers to contend with. Another factor, which forecasters are calling a "wildcard," could be the effects of a potential typhoon. Either way, the difference of a few degrees in temperature or a few gusts of wind could dictate how many athletes perform.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls has decades of international forecasting experience and said there is one wildcard for fans to keep an eye out for.
Here are some of the most noteworthy weather factors to keep an eye on, along with which events could be most hampered by the weather.
A woman walks by the Olympic rings installed by the Nippon Bashi bridge in Tokyo on Thursday, July 15, 2021. (AP Photo/Hiro Komae)
Clear skies for the Opening Ceremony
Per Olympic tradition, the Summer Games will kick off with an extravagant opening ceremony in Tokyo on July 23. What the grand ceremony might look like remains unclear, as organizers have been tight-lipped about the processions, but the pageantry of athletes marching into the host stadium with their country's flags will still occur.
Recent opening ceremonies, such as the 2018 Winter Games in South Korea, have included fireworks as part of the show. Regardless of the organizers' plans to use pyrotechnics or not, Nicholls said the athletes will likely be treated to a mostly dry evening.
"Overall, it looks like it may be dry for the opening ceremony on the 23rd, but cannot completely rule out a stray shower," he said. "The drier pattern may carry into early the week of the 26th."
A man wearing a protective mask to help curb the spread of the coronavirus walks in the rain past a banner of Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Thursday, May 13, 2021, in Tokyo. The Japanese capital confirmed more than 1,000 new coronavirus cases on Thursday. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
The tropical wildcard
The coronavirus pandemic has dominated the headlines as the biggest threat facing the rescheduled Summer Games, but Nicholls said tropical dangers that could brew in the Pacific Ocean can't be counted out. According to the AccuWeather Pacific hurricane season forecast, the basin is forecast to see 14 to 18 named storms this season, of which six to 10 could reach hurricane strength.
Mainland Japan is forecast to remain clear of In-fa, which developed into a tropical storm on Sunday over the Philippine, but Nicholls still called the possibility for a storm to hit the island a "wildcard" with the potential for more development across the basin prior to the start of the Games.
"While In-fa is forecast to track west over the southern Ryukyu Islands, staying well south of mainland Japan before threatening China, another storm may develop later in the week and has potential to track toward Japan," added AccuWeather Meteorologist Maura Kelly.
Rain clouds move in over National Stadium Wednesday, June 23, 2021, in Tokyo as the opening ceremony for Tokyo Olympics approaches within 30 days. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
Will the relocation help long-distance racers?
In an effort to avoid Tokyo's brutal summer heat, Olympic organizers opted to move both the marathon and the long-distance race walks out of the capital city and into the northern city of Sapporo. Although the athletes will be 500 miles away from the rest of the Olympic athletes in Tokyo, they will greatly appreciate the lower temperatures come race day.
Both the men's and women's marathons are scheduled to begin at 7 a.m. on the final weekend of Olympic competition, with the women's on Aug. 7 and the men's on Aug. 8, the same day as the closing ceremony.
The early starting time could be crucial for avoiding the heat, Nicholls said. Normal high daily temperatures for the city are around 77 degrees Fahrenheit for that period, but Nicholls said they could be even higher come race day.
"There is a good chance the temperature will be warmer than normal in this period, with daytime highs in the 80s and potentially around 90 F," Nicholls said. "The earlier start time should help avoid the worst of the heat."
Officials made the decision to relocate the marathon in 2019 after watching how the weather affected the 2018 World Marathon Championship, hosted in Qatar. There, even despite starting the race at midnight, temperatures above 90 degrees caused runners to collapse and 46 athletes dropped out of the race. World champion Lelisa Desisa called the hot conditions "dangerous."
In this Aug. 15, 2019, file photo, athletes dive into the water at the start line during a women's triathlon test event at Odaiba Marine Park, a venue for marathon swimming and triathlon at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, in Tokyo. The IOC moved next year’s Tokyo Olympic marathons and race walks out of the Japanese capital to avoid the stifling heat and humidity. Some swimmers and an 11,000-member coaching body want similar treatment: find an alternative to the distance-swimming venue in Tokyo Bay known as the “Odaiba Marine Park.”(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
What about out on the water?
The Games won't just be restricted to on-land competition, but competitors in events such as the triathlon and sailing will need to keep an eye on water conditions.
The men's and women's triathlons will be held on July 25 and 26, respectively, with the 1.5 km swim legs held in Tokyo Bay. While there have been concerns about the water quality in the bay, with one athlete comparing it to a toilet, will competitors also need to worry about the weather impacts?
Potentially, Nicholls said, especially if tropical development proves unfavorable for the athletes.
"There is the potential a tropical cyclone develops over the northeast Philippine Sea later next week," Nicholls said a week out from the opening ceremony. "There is low to medium confidence in development but the track of any system remains unclear but some models suggest a track near Tokyo around the 25th or 26th, which could cause a postponement of the triathlon."
Enoshima Yacht Harbor, where sailing for Tokyo 2020 Olympics will be held, is seen Feb. 19, 2021, in Fujisawa, south of Tokyo. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
If the system fails to develop or misses Toyko, Nicholls said the waters should be relatively calm with water temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, which is in the ideal range for competitors.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
A similar situation faces sailing competitors, who will be competing in the Enoshima Yacht Harbor in Enoshima, located about 30 miles south of Tokyo. There, races will stretch from July 25 to Aug. 4. Like the triathlon impacts, Nicholls said "the big wildcard" will be the potential tropical system that could cause major scheduling disruptions.
Heat or no heat? Plus, rain and thunderstorms
Toward the end of the two-and-a-half-week-long Games, pesky thunderstorms could come into play for outdoor events. The Japan National Stadium, where the opening and closing ceremonies -- as well as the track and field events -- will be held, is an open-air stadium with a half-covered roof, meaning storms could impact events.
This could prove potentially worrisome if the timing aligns with events scheduled later into the Games.
"Showers and thunderstorms could come into play for outdoor events in some medal rounds later in the games," Nicholls said. "Hail does not appear to be a big threat at this point, so lightning, downpours and strong wind gusts would be the main concerns."
The bigger story, however, is the heat. For years, experts have worried that the recent trend of dangerous summer heat waves in Japan could be a disaster for the Summer Games.
Just three summers ago, Tokyo saw an all-time high temperature of 106 F amid a nasty heat wave, which claimed dozens of lives, according to The Wall Street Journal. At the time, many were questioning whether the dates of the Games should be adjusted to avoid another heat-related disaster.
But this year, Nicholls said athletes can breath a sigh of relief as temperatures are forecast to remain in line with annual averages.
In northern Japan, he said temperatures could be slightly higher than normal, but temperatures around the 85 F forecast high will be far more bearable than recent summers.
"It looks like highs will be around 85 F (29 C) on the 23rd, which is actually near normal," Nicholls said. "I suspect temperatures are near to slightly above normal around Tokyo for much of the Games. Sapporo will be warmer than normal but not seeing extreme heat; mostly looks like highs in the mid- to upper 80s."
In other news:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo