High-risk severe weather setup to focus on Plains, Midwest into Monday
AccuWeather warns that multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms could unleash tornadoes, destructive winds, giant hail and flash flooding across the Plains and Midwest through the early week.
There’s a chance of repeated severe storms day after day from Kansas to Wisconsin this weekend.
Rounds of dangerous severe weather are forecast daily across the central United States into Monday before the threat shifts into the East. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes are expected to reach a high-risk level as the outbreak evolves.
Storms intensifying across parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest will threaten lives and property. In some areas of the Central states, widespread severe weather is expected on days classified at AccuWeather’s high-risk level.
AccuWeather’s severe weather classification is impact-driven and differs from the Storm Prediction Center’s system, with a focus on clarity for the general public.
The most widespread threat will come from straight-line wind gusts that can exceed hurricane force, or 74 mph. Winds this strong can topple trees, damage homes and businesses, and cause prolonged power outages.
Torrential downpours may accompany the strongest storms. Areas that receive repeated heavy rain over a short period of time could experience flash flooding.
Mammatus clouds form in the vicinity of a severe thunderstorm in Plano, Texas, on Saturday, April 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
In the more powerful storms that support violent updrafts and downdrafts that can be so dangerous for aircraft, large hailstones may form. Hail as large as golf balls and baseballs may fall in the strongest storms, damaging vehicles, roofs and siding, shattering windows and injuring people, pets and livestock caught outdoors.
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Some of the most intense storms may also produce tornadoes. Supercells that remain isolated from surrounding storms could spawn intense tornadoes that stay on the ground for miles. Long-track tornadoes are more likely to strike populated areas and cause significant damage.
Below is a daily breakdown of severe weather:
Monday
Monday and Monday night will likely mark the peak of the outbreak, with a broad area of moderate risk and a concentrated high-risk zone expected to produce numerous severe weather incidents.
Severe weather incidents are likely to number in the 100s.
The moderate-risk zone is forecast to extend from near Oklahoma City northward to Minneapolis and Eau Claire, Wisconsin. The high risk of severe weather and the greatest risk of intense, long-lasting tornadoes will extend from southern Kansas to central Iowa.
Some tornadoes can be long-track and intense. The highest threat of these tornadoes will occur from near Wichita, Kansas, to Des Moines, Iowa, Monday afternoon and night.
Tuesday
As a cold front cuts into building hot and humid air from Tuesday, the severe thunderstorm threat will shift toward the eastern United States.
There will be an elongated corridor of thunderstorms stretching from southern Ontario and Michigan all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast. Flooding downpours and localized damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be the primary risks from any thunderstorm.
Wednesday
While the overall intensity and concentration of severe weather will tend to decrease as it approaches the Atlantic Coast, some thunderstorms will still be capable of producing high winds and sudden downpours that can restrict visibility.
Meanwhile, new storms will spark across the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty winds can occur in any storm, and while some downpours may be potent enough to cause flash flooding, rain will help to quell the wildfire threat and the ongoing drought in the region.
Central US flash flood risk
Many thunderstorms can produce downpours that can lead to quick runoff and ponding on city streets and highways. Because rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to track over many of the same areas for several days, the flash flood threat will increase in urban areas and along small streams across the Central states through Tuesday.
The area from Kansas to Minnesota and Wisconsin may be at higher risk of flash flooding given the setup.
Lightning safety
It does not take a severe thunderstorm to produce sudden, dangerous lightning strikes. Bright flashes in the sky can indicate lightning 100 miles away or more at night. However, if thunder can be heard or a bolt can be seen in the distance, there is a risk of a lightning strike in your location.
Lightning fatalities during work-related activities. (National Lightning Safety Council)
Take shelter indoors or in a hard-topped metal vehicle. Golf carts, underpasses, porches, tents and picnic pavilions do not offer adequate protection from lightning. Never stand under a lone tree or groups of trees, as lightning often strikes the highest point in the area and can travel dozens of feet through the ground.
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