Damaging storms, tornado threat to intensify in Ohio and Tennessee valleys
After somewhat of a lull in tornado activity in recent days, that threat may kick into high gear starting late this week over part of the central United States.
The central U.S. is facing a multiday threat of severe weather that includes the risk of tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail through early next week. AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno breaks down what to expect.
Locally severe thunderstorms are fairly common from May to June, but an escalation of severe weather this week may peak as a significant threat of tornadoes in portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid-Mississippi valleys by Friday afternoon and evening, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
In what is already the worst tornado season in over a decade, a surge in severe weather in the coming days may culminate in a very active pattern favoring tornadoes.
"There is increasing concern among our meteorologists that Thursday and Friday are very active severe weather days, at least in terms of damaging winds and the potential for tornadoes," AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said.
"Even though severe thunderstorms have been relatively sparse lately, we advise people in alerted areas to not let their guard down," DePodwin said, "We are quickly approaching the peak of severe weather season and there will be numerous opportunities for severe thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week."
The uptick in severe weather will be initiated by a Pacific storm that will attack and break down an early-season heat wave for the northern Plains this week.
All modes of severe weather (high winds, hail, flash flooding and tornadoes) will be possible from Thursday afternoon to Thursday night. "Thursday evening will bring vigorous activity in eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and northern Indiana, moving east into Ohio during the overnight hours," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Eddie Walker.
The escalation of severe weather and the tornado threat will continue Friday. AccuWeather meteorologists have pushed the threat to a high level over parts of the Ohio Valley.
"We always look at the edge or rim of heat, in this case record heat, for where severe thunderstorms can erupt," DePodwin said, "On Friday, the setup could trigger a swath of damaging winds and tornadoes."
A dangerous situation may unfold in the zone from the middle Mississippi Valley to much of the Ohio Valley and part of the Tennessee Valley from Friday afternoon to Friday night. "Friday will be a moderate to high risk day for at least several tornadoes, even some of long duration," Walker said.
Long-duration tornadoes are often strong, potentially of EF2 intensity or greater. Should the situation escalate to its full potential, multiple strong, long-track tornadoes could be on the ground, with some lasting past nightfall.
During Friday night, the severe weather threat is likely to expand eastward into the mid-Atlantic region, Walker said.
"On Saturday, additional development of severe thunderstorms will occur along a cold front draped from the southern Plains, eastward to the Carolinas," Walker stated. There is the risk of severe thunderstorms for part of the day in the Interstate 95 mid-Atlantic region as well.
"Then the severe weather may reset back into the central Plains states on Sunday," Walker added.
Another outbreak of severe weather, which includes the risk of tornadoes, may gather over the Plains and slowly progress eastward next week.
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