Wildfires are expected to scorch more land across America this year compared to the historical average
AccuWeather Global Weather Center – April 23, 2025 - In the wake of unprecedented and devastating wildfires that caused an estimated $250 billion to $275 billion in total damage and economic loss across Southern California in January, AccuWeather long-range experts are predicting wildfires to burn more land across the United States this year, compared to the historical average.
> AccuWeather predicts 7 million to 9 million acres of land to burn across the United States in 2025
> The increasing risk of wildfires and impacts from toxic smoke are taking a greater toll on public health, the economy and the insurance industry
> The AccuWeather Data Science team has upgraded air pollution forecasting models to enhance AccuWeather air quality forecasts ahead of the peak months of wildfire season
> Click here to watch video media briefing with AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok
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> Click here to download multimedia resources: Video soundbites and AccuWeather forecast graphics
“We’ve seen fires reported across 20 states that have already burned nearly 1 million acres so far this year," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. “The firestorm that ripped through Southern California in early January caused catastrophic damage and heartbreaking loss. Families and businesses need to prepare for yet another active year of wildfires in America. AccuWeather is forecasting 7 to 9 million acres to burn across the country this year, which is more than the historical average.”
Nearly 9 million acres burned in fires across the United States last year. While heat, drought, wind, lightning and other weather conditions can be conducive for sparking or spreading fires, roughly 90 percent of all wildfires in the USare caused by humans, including sparks from downed power lines, discarded cigarettes, campfires, fireworks, lawn equipment, trains and vehicle backfires.
Spring 2025 Wildfire Risk
Wildfire season in the U.S. typically peaks later in summer and through autumn, but springtime fires can pose a unique danger, especially in areas facing drought after winter.
This is the case for the southern Plains and part of the interior Southwest, with the region facing "very high” to “extreme" wildfire risks this spring amid worsening drought conditions.
"Despite a few early spring storms, drought conditions remain deeply entrenched," Pastelok said. "Dry, windy and low-humidity days are expected to be frequent across the region, leading to rapid drying of available fuelsâ¯and an increased number of high-risk wildfire days. We could see a few dry thunderstorms, which can spark fires with lightning.”
Abnormally dry conditions paired with warm weather could also boost the fire danger across along the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of this spring.
“Roughly half of the country is dealing with abnormally dry or drought conditions right now. Nearly nine percent of the nation is in an extreme or exceptional drought, significantly higher than at this time last year. This is a concerning situation. The good news is, we're chipping away at drought conditions across the northern mid-Atlantic states, so the fire risk is starting to decrease. It's not completely over, because we still have cold fronts coming through this region. On the backside of cold fronts, it gets dry and windy. Those are two key ingredients for fires in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast,” Pastelok explained. “Until things really green up completely, we still have a fire risk in this region.”
The risk of fires along the East Coast the rest of spring extends as far south as parts of southern Florida.
“Two key factors led to less rainfall and drier conditions for much of Florida this spring. Water temperatures off the West Coast of the U.S. have been cooler than the historical average, which contributes to more storms in the Northwest and high pressure to build over Florida and the Southeast, preventing heavy rainfall and most cold fronts from reaching the Sunshine State,” Pastelok explained. “The weakening of La Niña, which led to more northern storm tracks, also prevented more rainfall from reaching Florida in recent weeks. As vegetation dries out across Florida, we could see more fires through the rest of the spring season.”
Wildfires broke out in the Carolinas in March, impacting areas where Hurricane Helene had downed thousands of trees. The sudden increase of dead trees following the powerful winds and flooding from Helene has led to a dramatic increase in the fuel available for fires, which can contribute to an elevated fire danger for the region over the next few years.
“There is an ongoing risk of fires across parts of the Carolinas and the southern Appalachians this spring. The trees that toppled over during the extreme winds from Helene have left behind piles of timber that act as fuel for any fires that spark,” Pastelok explained. “We fear the risk of fires in the southern Appalachians will intensify over the next two years as all of the trees knocked down by Helene continue to dry out.”
There is a moderate risk of wildfires in the Midwest and northern Plains, but Pastelok said an uptick in precipitation in late April and May should reduce, but not end, the fire potential for late spring. The threat could elevate once again this summer.
Farther west, storms and lingering winter moisture will limit wildfire activity across the West Coast and into the northern Rockies, but factors such as springtime snowmelt in the mountains and vegetation growth could play a role in the fire season across the regions later in 2025.
Summer 2025 Wildfire Risk
The shifting weather conditions from spring to summer will prime the environment for a surge in wildfire activity, especially across much of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Southwest and South Central states.
"While the season may start slowly, there is strong potential for rapid escalation as drought conditions and heat set in," Pastelok said. “This is the time of year when grasses, brush and other vegetation really start to dry out as trigger mechanisms kick in, like lightning and wind.”
The fast-building fire conditions are expected to focus on areas east of the Cascades through the northern Rockies.
Lightning from moisture-starved thunderstorms could trigger fires in these areas, and the risk rises throughout the season as vegetation dries out amid summertime heat and sunshine.
Thunderstorms will also be a double-edged sword across California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico as the annual monsoon builds. Rain from the monsoon will help to lower the fire risk over time, but early in the season when the landscape is dry, lightning from monsoon storms can ignite fires.
"As summer progresses, repeated rounds of monsoon rains and elevated humidity should help suppress wildfire development in impacted areas, particularly in Arizona, western New Mexico and southern Utah. This monsoon is expected to bring more moisture than we saw last year,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. “The fire risk with the Monsoon is along the outer rim, where dry thunderstorms can ignite fires and wind can quickly spread the flames. That outer rim typically includes parts of northern Nevada, western Arizona, eastern California and parts of Wyoming and Colorado.”
Pastelok says fires are possible throughout California this summer, but most of the activity is expected later in the year.
“The marine layer is expected to remain strong over much of coastal California this summer. That flow of cooler and moist air from the Pacific will help reduce the risk of fires for most of the summer,” Pastelok explained. “Spotty fires are possible in parts of interior California, the Central Valley and the foothills this summer as temperatures rise and vegetation starts to dry out.”
Across the East, frequent showers and thunderstorms in the summer generally limit fire activity, but this won't be the case everywhere in 2025.
"Dry stretches with below-normal thunderstorm activity can lead to temporary flare-ups, especially in the Carolinas, parts of Georgia, Florida and the Gulf Coast," Buckingham said.
This includes areas where Helene has caused an abundance of fuel primed to ignite.
Downed trees from a major ice storm in late-March could also temporarily raise the risk of fires in northern Michigan and northeastern Wisconsin later in the summer and into the autumn.
Fall 2025 Wildfire Risk
AccuWeather’s team of long-range experts says more than 30 states across America will face a “moderate,” “high,” or “very high” risk of fires this fall.
The “very high” risk of fires is concentrated across parts of Central and Northern California, much of southern, central and eastern Oregon, as well as western Idaho.
“There was plenty of rain and snow across Northern California this winter. All of that moisture has supported a lot of lush vegetation growth this spring. That grass and brush will dry out and become potential fuel for wildfires this fall,” Pastelok said. “Any trigger mechanism like lightning, strong winds that can bring down power lines or a spark from human activity could cause big wildfire problems this fall. It’s crucial that people take the time to clear vegetation and create defensible spaces around homes and businesses in fire-prone areas to reduce the risk."
AccuWeather’s team of long-range experts will release more details about the fall wildfire forecast in July.
Wildfire smoke and public health
The impacts from wildfires, smoke, extreme fire weather and evacuations in the past five years across the country have impacted the physical and mental health of millions of Americans.
Smoke from wildfires contains many toxins and hazardous materials, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds and other harmful chemicals and gases that can lead to respiratory, cardiovascular and other serious health issues.
In recent years, fires burning in California, the Pacific Northwest and Canada have sent massive amounts of smoke into the air, which was transported by the wind more than 2,000 miles to major cities in the Northeast, including New York City, Philadelphia and Boston.
Pastelok says families and businesses across Canada, the Great Lakes and the northern United States should be prepared for the possibility of hazy skies and impacts from wildfire smoke again this year.
“It’s not just people who live in and near wildfire-prone areas that need to pay attention to wildfire forecasts and updates,” Pastelok explained. “Alberta and British Columbia could have a late but active wildfire season this year. If smoke from wildfires burning in Canada makes its way into the prevailing upper-level wind flow, we could see wildfire smoke impacts in the northern Plains and Great Lakes region, including cities like Minneapolis, Chicago, and Detroit. This area faces increased odds of hazy skies and other impacts this year due to the expected weather patterns and high pressure over the Northwest. If big wildfires break out in western Canada again this year, Chicago could face several days with very smoky and hazy skies.”
Dr. Jonathan Tan, a pediatric anesthesiologist and Vice Chair of Analytics and Clinical Effectiveness at Children’s Hospital Los Angeles, says children are one of the most vulnerable populations to the impacts of wildfire smoke.
“Children are not little adults; they are distinctly different. Children are still developing and breathe more air per body weight than adults do. Kids also tend to spend more time outside than adults, which can increase the exposure to poor air quality,” Dr. Tan explained. “Kids with preexisting respiratory conditions like asthma face some of the highest risks of health impacts from wildfire smoke. During the wildfires in January, we treated children who required additional breathing treatments in the emergency department, the operating room, and the intensive care units, after they were exposed to poor air quality and wildfire smoke.”
Researchers and experts at Children's Hospital Los Angeles partnered with AccuWeather to use AccuWeather air quality and environmental data to help answer critical questions about the impacts that wildfire smoke and environmental exposures have on children in southern California.
“This collaboration between Children's Hospital Los Angeles and AccuWeather has been groundbreaking. We’re taking weather, climate, and environmental data from AccuWeather and bringing it into our hospital system for research that will drive clinical care, policy and advocacy changes,” Dr. Tan said. “Our partnership with AccuWeather has enabled Children’s Hospital Los Angeles to be better prepared to study the impact of wildfires that impacted our community in January. We were able to see the impacts that wildfires were having on air quality and how it was impacting all of our pediatric patients across the entire health system. This data provided us with the ability to quickly determine which children were exposed to the worst air quality when wildfires were ravaging our city in January. We couldn’t do that before this partnership with AccuWeather or without our incredible research team at Children’s Hospital Los Angeles.”
Dr. Tan is also an Assistant Professor of Clinical Anesthesiology and Spatial Sciences at the University of Southern California.
AccuWeather Lead Wildfire Smoke Expert Dr. Boris Quennehen says wind plays a major role in the transportation and dispersion of pollutants, particulates and toxins in wildfire smoke.
“The closer you are to the fire, the higher the probability to be affected. But, of course, edge cases exist. You may be close to a fire and not be impacted at all, depending on the wind and the altitude,” said Dr. Quennehen. “Smoke from wildfires can be transported across large distances, even near the ground level, and impact remote location. For example, several studies have shown pollution levels increased in New York state due to past wildfire smoke being transported from the northwest U.S. and southern Canada.”
Dr. Quennehen and his colleagues on the AccuWeather Data Science team recently released an update to their air pollution forecasting model that enhances how it fills in the gaps between ground-based air quality monitoring stations. AccuWeather's air quality forecasts are relied on by millions of people every day.
The update was specifically designed to enhance air quality information leading up to and during extreme events like wildfires. This new model now powers all AccuWeather's air quality forecasts, available for free on the AccuWeather app and AccuWeather.com, as well as the AccuWeather Data Suite.
"For smoke to impact human health, it must be present near the surface where people breathe. If smoke remains aloft and doesn't mix down to ground level, its health effects are minimal. Therefore, if ground-based air quality monitoring stations don't detect elevated concentrations, it's generally safe in the vicinity of those stations,” Dr. Quennehen explained. “This means that it is extremely important to have the best possible air quality information for your location. Knowing what’s in the air you breathe means you can make critical decisions to protect your health.”
Economic and Insurance Industry Impacts
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter says the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires and other extreme weather events in the United States are taking a larger economic toll that is being felt across the nation.
“The economic damage and losses from weather disasters in America so far this year should be a wake-up call for everyone. The wind-driven infernos that destroyed neighborhoods in Southern California had a total damage and economic loss of $250 billion to $275 billion, according to an AccuWeather preliminary estimate. Our experts estimate that weather disasters in the first four months of 2025 have caused a combined $344 billion to $382 billion in total damage and economic loss. Unlike many disaster estimates, we consider the impacts to tourism, supply chain and business losses, immediate and long-term healthcare expenses, as well as damage and repair costs among many other items," Porter said.
Construction industry experts say the cost of construction is on the rise, and labor costs are increasing in many areas. Porter warns that it is becoming increasingly difficult for some families and businesses to repair or rebuild after weather disasters. Global economic uncertainties could contribute to additional increases and limited material availability later this year.
The economic strain is also making it more difficult for families, businesses and communities to invest in more resilient structures designed to better withstand extreme weather impacts expected in the future.
Porter says the increasing risk of wildfires and extreme weather is also escalating the insurance crisis in America.
“Wildfires are one of the biggest challenges for the insurance industry right now. The Southern California firestorm in January damaged or destroyed more than 16,000 homes and businesses, including hundreds of multimillion-dollar properties in one of the priciest real estate markets in the nation,” Porter said. “We expect the trend of more expensive policies and fewer choices to escalate, as insurance companies grapple with the challenge of rising risks, more expensive losses and more frequent weather disasters. Importantly, these trends will increasingly occur even outside of high-risk areas for natural disasters. Many Americans are uninsured or underinsured for extreme weather events like wildfires, which is only adding to the strain on government resources, disaster recovery groups and nonprofit organizations that are trying to help families who often lost their homes, their vehicles and oftentimes even their jobs when a wildfire impacts their community. Innovation in how affordable insurance coverage is made available to people and businesses is required to ensure people and businesses have access to the insurance coverage they need in order to protect their financial futures.”
Climate Change Connection
AccuWeather Climate Expert and Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson says there are clear links between impacts from climate change and an increasing risk of wildfires, especially in the western U.S.
“The combination of rising temperatures, worsening droughts and changing precipitation patterns continues to increase the risk of wildfires in America. More people are living and building in vulnerable areas, which is compounding the risk to lives and property,” Anderson said. “There is no longer a wildfire season, especially in the West. The catastrophic fires that ripped through communities in Los Angeles County in January are a tragic reminder that wildfires can happen at any time of year. When there is dry vegetation or drought conditions combined with wind, a single spark can create a deadly firestorm in a matter of seconds.”
Anderson says the burning of fossil fuels is contributing to our warming atmosphere, which is increasing the frequency of hot, dry and windy weather in many fire-prone areas of the U.S.
“We’re witnessing the impacts of a dangerous feedback loop. Our warming climate is increasing the odds of fire weather and extreme wildfires,” Anderson explained. “Burning forests and wildlands release tremendous amounts of smoke that contain toxic gases, particulate matter, and carbon dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas that further contributes to climate change. It’s a vicious cycle that will only worsen as we continue to burn fossil fuels.”
Higher temperatures and milder winters are also creating more pest problems that can contribute to more potential fuel for wildfires.
“As the winter season continues to warm due to climate change, more tree-damaging insects will likely survive through the winter. This increasing population and lifespan of insects, especially the Pine Bark Beetle in western North America, is expected to cause more tree damage and even tree die-off events during the warmer seasons,” Anderson warned. “Damaged and dead trees can quickly catch fire, allowing wildfires to quickly spread much faster than in areas with a healthy forest. Dead and dying trees also leave behind more leaves and tree litter on the ground, which can act like kindling for forest fires.”
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
AccuWeather 2025 US Wildfire Forecast
Hot, dry weather to boost wildfire risk in Florida
AccuWeather® and Children’s Hospital Los Angeles Team-up to Revolutionize Children’s Healthcare Using Environmental Data
Wildfire safety tips from the experts
Wildfire Survival Tips
Prepare your home for a wildfire
7 simple steps to prevent wildfires
Weather Explained: How do wildfires start and spread?
5 ways to protect yourself against wildfire smoke
