AccuWeather 2026 U.S. Spring Forecast: Slow Transition to Spring Warmth, Elevated Risk of Floods and Fires
> Higher heating bills are likely this spring as lower-than-historical-average temperatures linger in parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest
> Slower transition to springlike weather is forecast across parts of 16 states in the Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northwest
> Higher risk of floods in the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys is forecast this spring, compared to 2025
> Elevated wildfire threat across Florida, the Southeast and the mid-Atlantic due to drought condition
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AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Jan. 28, 2026 - AccuWeather long-range experts say weather patterns in the United States this spring will be shaped by a rapidly fading La Niña, a slower jet stream and a stronger southern storm track.
“The transition to warmer spring weather will be slower across the Northeast, Great Lakes and the Pacific Northwest this year, compared to historical averages,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. “Warmer springlike weather is expected to arrive early this year across much of the Southwest, from Southern California to Texas.”
AccuWeather 2026 U.S. Spring Forecast: Regional Highlights
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Northeast and Great Lakes: Cooler start to spring with late-season snow and frost potential; some flooding likely later from snowmelt and rain.
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Southeast and mid-Atlantic: Early-spring fire risk in the interior mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachians, and parts of the Southeast. Drought concerns early, followed by increasing rain and flood risk along the Gulf Coast.
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Midwest and Ohio Valley: Moderate risk of river and flash flooding from snowmelt and spring rain; fewer tornadoes than 2025, but frequent damaging wind events and flooding downpours.
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Northern Plains and Upper Midwest: Late-season snow and frost possible; spring flooding risk increases as snowpack melts.
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Southwest and southern Plains: Faster transition to warmer spring conditions; drought persists and expands, with elevated fire risk in the Southwest and High Plains.
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Western U.S.: Drought remains entrenched in the Interior West; some improvement possible in the Northwest and northern Rockies with lingering snow and rain.
Temperature trends and energy demand
The transition to sustained spring warmth will vary widely across the country this year.
“A slower transition to consistent spring warmth is expected from the northern Rockies through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. That opens the door for late-season snow and frost well into early spring, especially across the northern Plains and interior Northeast,” Pastelok said. “Bitter cold pushed heating bills higher for millions of people this winter. Lingering colder air this spring could keep costs elevated.”
Spring warmth is expected to arrive more quickly across the Southwest and southern Plains, increasing drought stress and fire concerns.
“Average spring temperatures are expected to be 2 to 3 degrees above historical averages across parts of California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas,” Pastelok said. “People may need to crank up the air conditioning earlier than normal this year, likely leading to higher power bills.”
Spring flood risk
Flooding stands out as one of the most significant weather risks this spring, especially across the nation’s midsection.
Current river levels are running low across much of the midsection of the nation this winter from a lack of snow and rain, but a few storms in the back end of the winter into early spring can turn this around quickly.
“The combination of melting snow and heavier spring rainfall raises the risk for river and flash flooding across the Mississippi and Ohio valleys,” Pastelok said. “We have seen similar setups in past years, like 2013, 2014, and 2023, when spring flooding became a major issue.”
AccuWeather long-range experts say above-historical average precipitation is expected this spring across parts of Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as Minnesota and North Dakota.
Spring severe weather forecast
AccuWeather long-range experts expect a much different severe weather profile this year compared to the destructive spring of 2025.
“There will likely be fewer tornadoes and hail reports this spring, especially compared to last spring. Storms with damaging straight-line winds will likely be a more frequent threat,” Pastelok said. “Flooding is the main hazard this spring, especially with the slower-moving storms that are expected.”
There were 1,559 tornadoes reported across the U.S. in 2025, above the 15-year historical average of 1,392 tornadoes annually.
The eastern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and western Ohio Valley are expected to have multiple severe weather episodes in March and April, while the north-central Plains and Midwest may not experience more typical severe weather activity until late April or May.
The economic impacts of severe weather last spring were staggering.
AccuWeather experts say a rare atmospheric river that funneled extreme rainfall into the central U.S., combined with a multiday severe weather and tornado outbreak last April, caused an estimated $80 billion to $90 billion in total damage and economic loss.
A deadly severe weather outbreak that brought more than 70 tornadoes, destructive hail and powerful wind gusts to the central U.S. last May caused $9 billion to $11 billion in total damage and economic loss, according to an estimate from AccuWeather experts.
“This spring has the potential for high-impact weather, even though we expect fewer tornadoes,” Pastelok explained. “Flooding and damaging winds will be the main hazards this spring. The slower pace of the jet stream could lead to a higher frequency of upper-level low pressure areas, producing heavier rainfall amounts, resulting in storms that are more disruptive and impactful.”
The AccuWeather 2026 US Severe Weather Forecast will be issued in mid-February.
Fire and drought concerns
The early spring fire risk is expected to increase across the interior mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachians, parts of the Southeast, the interior Southwest, and the southern High Plains.
“Drought remains a major concern across the Southwest and southern High Plains. Drought conditions will likely persist, and may expand northward this spring,” Pastelok said. “Parts of the Southeast could see elevated fire risk early in the season before rainfall becomes more consistent later in spring.
“Downed trees and storm debris left behind from Helene are still a concern in the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee,” Pastelok said. “That additional fuel on the ground can dry out quickly during warmer and breezy periods, increasing the risk for wildfires across parts of the Appalachians.”
Some drought improvement is possible across the Mississippi Valley and East Coast later in spring, though it may not fully eliminate long-term deficits.
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
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