Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in Gulf of Mexico
By
Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Sep 12, 2021 1:26 PM EDT
The Gulf of Mexico has become a breeding ground for tropical systems lately, first with powerful Hurricane Ida in late August and then the quick-hitting Tropical Storm Mindy last week. On Sunday, Tropical Storm Nicholas became the newest storm to develop in the Gulf, and forecasters say that torrential rain associated with the slow-moving storm could evolve into a serious threat to lives and property.
Nicholas is the 14th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. However, there may be some competition for the next name on the list. After Nicholas, the 15th name on the list of tropical storms for 2021 is Odette, which could go to a system in the far eastern Atlantic.
Because of the limited amount of time Nicholas is likely to spend over warm Gulf of Mexico waters, it is unlikely for the system to become too strong, and thus it is not expected to reach hurricane strength. It is expected to move ashore in southeastern Texas by Tuesday. The tropical storm has been rated as a 1 for the U.S. on AccuWeather's RealImpact™Scale.
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"Even if a tropical storm does not form, an area of low pressure will take a slow, curved path along the western and northwestern shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico this week, and torrential rain is forecast to fall along the western shores of the Gulf as a result," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
"This is the type of situation where inches of rain may not only fall in a calendar day but potentially in a few hour's time in some locales," Sosnowski added.
Torrential downpours across the western Gulf are expected to begin as early as Sunday morning from Matagorda, Texas to Lake Charles, Louisiana, including Houston, where 8 to 12 inches of rain are expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches where the heaviest and most persistent downpours set up.
Nicholas is forecast to track west of where Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana nearly two weeks ago. However, some of the same locations that were hit hard last year by hurricanes Laura and Delta will need to pay attention to the forecast and the track of the system. Both Laura and Delta made landfall in southwestern Louisiana only 13 miles apart and within 43 days of each other. Laura struck as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 27, and Delta hit as a Category 2 hurricane on Oct. 9.
"This Gulf feature may not bring much of a threat from wind, unlike Laura and Delta, but the risk from torrential rain and flooding is significant in southeastern Texas and part of Louisiana this week," Sosnowski said.
Cities such as Brownsville, Victoria, Corpus Christi, Houston and Port Arthur, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana, are just some of the locations where enough rain may fall to trigger flooding.
People in Texas, and in particular areas from Houston to Port Arthur, still have Hurricane Harvey on their minds. While Harvey peaked as a Category 4 hurricane over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the storm stalled for days over southeastern Texas and unloaded as much as 61 inches of rain on the region. Catastrophic flooding left the area reeling in the storm's wake.
"AccuWeather is not suggesting that Harvey-like rain will fall from this system, as it is likely to be much weaker when compared to Harvey, but the slow-moving nature could bring double-digit rainfall, and that can lead to significant flooding in some areas, should it slow and stall along the upper Texas coast or in southwestern Louisiana," Sosnowski said.
Both Victoria and Lake Charles picked up more than 20 inches of rain this past May, which was four times that of average. Even though rainfall has been generally less extreme since then, rainfall has remained above average throughout most of the summer months. Because of that, a huge amount of rain may not be needed to renew flooding.
Along with the likelihood of heavy rain and localized flooding will be rough surf and seas over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico from Sunday to the middle part of this week. Swimmers and boaters should exercise caution. Rip currents are likely to increase in number and strength in the coming days.
Along with the projected rough surf and rip currents expected from the storm early this week, gusty winds are also forecast to come ashore in eastern Texas. Wind gusts from 40-60 mph are expected in cities like Corpus Cristi, Texas, and Victoria, Texas, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph. Where flooding rainfall occurs, over saturating the ground, wind gusts bringing down trees and power lines resulting in localized power outages.
People within 75 miles of the Texas coast and in western and southern Louisiana should be prepared for travel delays at the very least on Sunday and potentially lasting well into this week. Some roads prone to taking on water during torrential downpours could become flooded.
Like the record-setting 2020 season, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is about to blow past seasonal averages. Typically, only 14 named storms form during the course of an entire season.
In 2020, there were 30 named systems, so the Greek alphabet had to be used after all 21 names on the list had been exhausted. The 2021 season could reach the end of the first order of names once again, but rather than utilize the Greek alphabet, there is a secondary list of names that was determined by the World Meteorological Organization for the National Hurricane Center to use as needed.
"The name Nicholas has been used only once before for a tropical storm in 2003," AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and meteorologist Jesse Ferrell stated.
"There have been 18 'N' storms with seven different names, and the most commonly used name has been 'Nicole,' which was used four times," Ferrell added.
Some storms starting with 'N' have been retired. A storm name is retired when it is particularly memorable, especially if it causes loss of life or extensive damage.
"Nate in 2017 and Noel in 2007 were retired," stated Ferrell.
Nate was a storm that also impacted the Gulf. Hurricane Nate caused severe flooding in Central America and Mexico before moving northward and making landfall in southeastern Louisiana and a second landfall in Mississippi.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.
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News / Hurricane
Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in Gulf of Mexico
By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Sep 12, 2021 1:26 PM EDT
The Gulf of Mexico has become a breeding ground for tropical systems lately, first with powerful Hurricane Ida in late August and then the quick-hitting Tropical Storm Mindy last week. On Sunday, Tropical Storm Nicholas became the newest storm to develop in the Gulf, and forecasters say that torrential rain associated with the slow-moving storm could evolve into a serious threat to lives and property.
Nicholas is the 14th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. However, there may be some competition for the next name on the list. After Nicholas, the 15th name on the list of tropical storms for 2021 is Odette, which could go to a system in the far eastern Atlantic.
Because of the limited amount of time Nicholas is likely to spend over warm Gulf of Mexico waters, it is unlikely for the system to become too strong, and thus it is not expected to reach hurricane strength. It is expected to move ashore in southeastern Texas by Tuesday. The tropical storm has been rated as a 1 for the U.S. on AccuWeather's RealImpact™Scale.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"Even if a tropical storm does not form, an area of low pressure will take a slow, curved path along the western and northwestern shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico this week, and torrential rain is forecast to fall along the western shores of the Gulf as a result," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
"This is the type of situation where inches of rain may not only fall in a calendar day but potentially in a few hour's time in some locales," Sosnowski added.
Torrential downpours across the western Gulf are expected to begin as early as Sunday morning from Matagorda, Texas to Lake Charles, Louisiana, including Houston, where 8 to 12 inches of rain are expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches where the heaviest and most persistent downpours set up.
Nicholas is forecast to track west of where Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana nearly two weeks ago. However, some of the same locations that were hit hard last year by hurricanes Laura and Delta will need to pay attention to the forecast and the track of the system. Both Laura and Delta made landfall in southwestern Louisiana only 13 miles apart and within 43 days of each other. Laura struck as a Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 27, and Delta hit as a Category 2 hurricane on Oct. 9.
"This Gulf feature may not bring much of a threat from wind, unlike Laura and Delta, but the risk from torrential rain and flooding is significant in southeastern Texas and part of Louisiana this week," Sosnowski said.
Cities such as Brownsville, Victoria, Corpus Christi, Houston and Port Arthur, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana, are just some of the locations where enough rain may fall to trigger flooding.
People in Texas, and in particular areas from Houston to Port Arthur, still have Hurricane Harvey on their minds. While Harvey peaked as a Category 4 hurricane over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the storm stalled for days over southeastern Texas and unloaded as much as 61 inches of rain on the region. Catastrophic flooding left the area reeling in the storm's wake.
"AccuWeather is not suggesting that Harvey-like rain will fall from this system, as it is likely to be much weaker when compared to Harvey, but the slow-moving nature could bring double-digit rainfall, and that can lead to significant flooding in some areas, should it slow and stall along the upper Texas coast or in southwestern Louisiana," Sosnowski said.
Both Victoria and Lake Charles picked up more than 20 inches of rain this past May, which was four times that of average. Even though rainfall has been generally less extreme since then, rainfall has remained above average throughout most of the summer months. Because of that, a huge amount of rain may not be needed to renew flooding.
Along with the likelihood of heavy rain and localized flooding will be rough surf and seas over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico from Sunday to the middle part of this week. Swimmers and boaters should exercise caution. Rip currents are likely to increase in number and strength in the coming days.
Along with the projected rough surf and rip currents expected from the storm early this week, gusty winds are also forecast to come ashore in eastern Texas. Wind gusts from 40-60 mph are expected in cities like Corpus Cristi, Texas, and Victoria, Texas, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph. Where flooding rainfall occurs, over saturating the ground, wind gusts bringing down trees and power lines resulting in localized power outages.
People within 75 miles of the Texas coast and in western and southern Louisiana should be prepared for travel delays at the very least on Sunday and potentially lasting well into this week. Some roads prone to taking on water during torrential downpours could become flooded.
Like the record-setting 2020 season, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is about to blow past seasonal averages. Typically, only 14 named storms form during the course of an entire season.
In 2020, there were 30 named systems, so the Greek alphabet had to be used after all 21 names on the list had been exhausted. The 2021 season could reach the end of the first order of names once again, but rather than utilize the Greek alphabet, there is a secondary list of names that was determined by the World Meteorological Organization for the National Hurricane Center to use as needed.
"The name Nicholas has been used only once before for a tropical storm in 2003," AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and meteorologist Jesse Ferrell stated.
"There have been 18 'N' storms with seven different names, and the most commonly used name has been 'Nicole,' which was used four times," Ferrell added.
Some storms starting with 'N' have been retired. A storm name is retired when it is particularly memorable, especially if it causes loss of life or extensive damage.
"Nate in 2017 and Noel in 2007 were retired," stated Ferrell.
Nate was a storm that also impacted the Gulf. Hurricane Nate caused severe flooding in Central America and Mexico before moving northward and making landfall in southeastern Louisiana and a second landfall in Mississippi.
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For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.
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