Erick to continue as tropical rainstorm following landfall as major hurricane in Mexico
Erick peaked as a Category 4 hurricane prior to moving onshore early Thursday morning along the southwestern coast of Mexico, where it is unleashing life-threatening conditions. Erick will slowly lose wind intensity.
Hurricane Erick briefly strengthened to a Category 4 storm before striking Mexico as a Category 3, causing significant impacts on June 19.
The fifth tropical cyclone of the 2025 eastern Pacific season "Erick" peaked as a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, before moving onshore southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, early Thursday morning as a major Category 3 hurricane.
"This was the earliest major hurricane to strike land in the eastern Pacific basin," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "Erick shattered the old record set by Hurricane Kiko on Aug. 27, 1989."
Erick will continue on later Thursday into Friday over part of Mexico as a tropical rainstorm.
Dangerous conditions from torrential rain, flash flooding and mudslides will threaten lives and property in the region throughout much of Thursday, while the slowly unwinding hurricane drifts north-northwestward just inland along the Pacific coast of Mexico.
This image shows Hurricane Erick with an eye clearly visible as it nears the southwest of the coast of Mexico on Wednesday night, June 18, 2025. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
On the heels of Dalila, Tropical Storm Erick formed off the coast of Mexico early Tuesday morning and, in only about 24 hours, became the second hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season as anticipated. This is the earliest fifth-named storm since July 9, 1956. The average date for the fifth-named storm is July 23.
A variety of videos show the range of impacts across the western Mexican coast when Hurricane Erick arrived on June 19.
In several hours, Erick ramped up to another level, reaching Category 2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. As of noon, local time, Erick's maximum sustained winds were 100 mph. Just 24 hours earlier, Erick had sustained winds of 50 mph. To meet the criteria for rapid intensification, a storm’s winds must strengthen by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Erick continued to exhibit rapid strengthening as it progressed from a Category 2 (96-110 mph) at midday on Wednesday to a Category 4 (130-156 mph) late Wednesday night.
As AccuWeather meteorologists accurately predicted, Hurricane Erick continued to strengthen reaching Category 4 status with 145 mph maximum sustained winds early Thursday morning.
It has become the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2025, eclipsing Vince over the southern Indian Ocean from February.
"Erick is expected to track close enough to Acapulco with the full impacts you would expect from a hurricane, ranging from powerful wind gusts and power outages to torrential rain and flash flooding, as well as storm surge flooding," DaSilva said.
The worst of the hurricane's effects are anticipated farther to the southeast of Acapulco along the Mexican coast into Thursday evening.
Factoring in the intensity, track, topography and population, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes with the current hurricane is a 4.
Powerful winds capable of causing structural damage and significant damage to utility lines will blast a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico into Thursday afternoon, even as Erick slowly winds down.
Inches of rain per hour will pour down on the steep hillsides, leading to flash flooding and the potential for large mudslides and other debris flows through Thursday night and into Friday.
Enough rain will fall in parts of southern and southwestern Mexico along the coast and over the interior mountains to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. From 8-16 inches of rain is forecast to fall over a broad area with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 20 inches.
Strong winds will buffet the coast, generating large swells, big waves, overwash on the beaches and shoreline and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone.
With five tropical storms and now two hurricanes already for the eastern Pacific basin, this season is well ahead of the historical average pace. Typically, the average date for the first hurricane is not until June 26.
Barbara peaked last week as an entry-level Category 1 hurricane on Sunday, June 8, while well offshore with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.
Erick, the second hurricane of the 2025 season, has far eclipsed that intensity while off the shore of Mexico. The second hurricane and first major (Category 3) hurricane tends to form around mid-July. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect 14-18 tropical storms for the eastern Pacific season with seven to 10 forecast to become hurricanes. Of these, from three to six will bring direct impacts to Mexico and Central America.
In the wake of the fifth tropical storm this week, yet another tropical rainstorm may unfold west of Central America prior to the end of the month (June 25-28).
Tropical Atlantic continues to sleep
Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic basin continues to struggle with vast areas of dry air, dust and disruptive winds—all of which are not uncommon tropical development deterrents early in the season.
"While the chances have become very small, we continue to watch the area close to land in the southwestern Gulf and the western Caribbean for tropical development late in June," DaSilva said.
There have been some showers and thunderstorms in this area in recent days, but no organization has occurred. "Any tropical rainstorm or depression that were to form in the area would likely not spend much time over warm water, and hence, its lifespan would be brief," DaSilva said.
Another area to watch will be just off the coast of the Carolinas, Georgia and northeastern Florida prior to the end of the month. As a complex of thunderstorms drops across the Northeast states then moves southward offshore, it could slowly coalesce into a tropical rainstorm while over the Gulf Stream.
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