Tropical rainstorm soaks Florida, could strengthen in Gulf before targeting Louisiana
A tropical rainstorm will drench Florida through midweek before possibly strengthening over the Gulf and threatening Louisiana with flooding and tropical impacts.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva discusses upcoming trouble in the tropics.
A tropical rainstorm, also designated as Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center, formed on the Atlantic coast of Florida on Monday afternoon and was already brought tropical rainfall across central and southern Florida.
Those at the Florida beaches will also experience rough surf and strong rip currents into Wednesday.
Flooding will be of greatest concern in low-lying, poor drainage and urban locations across central Florida into midweek as the tropical rainstorm tracks across the peninsula with eyes for the northern Gulf.
The drenching rain, although bringing the risk of flooding, should help to lessen the ongoing drought conditions continue across much of Florida. More than 50% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry, and 16% of the state, mostly in South Florida, is in a moderate drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
After moving across Florida, the tropical rainstorm will emerge over the waters of the Gulf and continue to move west and northwest.
The exact track and organization of the tropical rainstorm in the coming days will ultimately determine how widespread the heavy, tropical rainfall will be.
"A more organized tropical system would bring a larger swath of heavy rain and a more widespread flooding risk," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. AccuWeather hurricane experts are currently forecasting a tropical depression to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Thursday morning, local time.
Should the storm speed up, it would quickly push the tropical rain across the central Gulf Coast. A stalling storm over the Gulf or Louisiana could lead to more widespread heavy rain and flooding.
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The track of the rainstorm will also be a deciding factor.
"The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over the Gulf, the longer it will have to strengthen before landfall," DaSilva explained. It's not out the question that, in this scenario, the tropical system would have enough time to become a tropical storm. The next name on the Atlantic Basin hurricane list for the 2025 season is Dexter.
The tropical rainstorm is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for hurricanes in the United States.
Other potential impacts are forecast in the central Gulf Coast as AccuWeather meteorologists forecast the rainstorm to strengthen into a tropical depression before making landfall in Louisiana Thursday morning.
However, whether or not the tropical rainstorm strengthens to a tropical depression, heavy rain and the risk of flooding will exist.
Storm surge of 1-3 feet is forecast for eastern Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, stretching into coastal Alabama and Mississippi.
The possibility of 40-60 mph wind gusts are expected to be confined to far southeastern Louisiana. Both of these risks would increase should the tropical system make landfall as a tropical storm.
After landfall, the storm is expected to be steered northward as it loses wind intensity, bringing rain to the southern portion of the Mississippi River Valley. However, light steering breezes may cause the storm to stall. Should this occur, some areas may experience excessive rainfall and a high risk of flooding.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor the potential for tropical development along the Southeast coast as early as next week.
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