Tropical disturbance near Bahamas bears watching for impacts in southeastern US
AccuWeather meteorologists were tracking three separate tropical waves over the Atlantic basin Tuesday and said there are signs that an overall uptick in tropical activity is on the horizon.
AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski breaks down the hurricane outlook for 2023 as we move towards late-summer and early-fall.
Drenching downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance will spread westward across parts of Florida to end the week, AccuWeather meteorologists say. Not only will cloud cover and the downpours cause temperatures to drop but the risk of flash flooding will increase.
Meanwhile, forecasters will continue to monitor a train of disturbances, also known as tropical waves, moving westward from Africa as July comes to a close and August begins.
On this wide image of the tropical Atlantic basin taken on Wednesday, July 26, a tropical wave was located off the coast of Africa (far right). A tropical wave was located over the eastern Caribbean (middle left center). Finally, a tropical wave was kicking up thunderstorms over the Bahamas to near the Florida coast (upper left). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
Tropical wave gathering thunderstorms around Bahamas
A tropical wave was located over the northern Bahamas on Wednesday. A tropical wave represents a narrow zone in the atmosphere where the air is rising and more conducive for showers and thunderstorms to erupt. Under the right conditions, tropical waves can develop an area of circulation and an increase in winds.
"Where this disturbance is located, there is some moisture around and not a great deal of wind shear," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. Wind shear is the sudden change in direction or increase in breezes across the atmosphere and can inhibit tropical development.
"The water is very warm where the feature is now and where it is going," Rayno said.
Ocean water temperatures as of 9 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 25, 2023.
A water temperature of 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit is the minimum threshold for tropical development. Water temperatures in the vicinity of the disturbance and where it is likely to travel generally range from 83-88 F but are even higher locally.
A general west-to-northwest drift of this disturbance is likely through the end of the week, which would bring it across the Florida Florida Peninsula spanning Thursday and Friday. Disruptive wind shear is likely to increase as the system nears the Florida coast.
"There is not much time for this system to organize and strengthen," Rayno said. However, the system will be watched closely for last-minute development prior to moving across Florida and encountering warm waters in the Gulf Stream where temperatures were in the upper 80s on Wednesday.
An uptick in drenching downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms is likely across parts of Florida and perhaps as far to the north as the Georgia coast into Friday.
Even weak tropical systems can bring an uptick in severe weather including waterspouts and short-lived tornadoes. Coastal waters may get choppy for boaters, and rough surf and rip currents may pose hazards to swimmers.
"Downpours could be heavy enough to trigger flash flooding in places such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach through Thursday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said. "It may bring enough rain to help ease severe drought in the hard-hit Florida counties of Manatee and Sarasota, near the Gulf coast, by Thursday afternoon."
Clouds and downpours from the weak tropical system will likely snap the string of 90-degree days in Miami that began on June 23.
Time has run out for tropical wave in Caribbean
A tropical wave that AccuWeather meteorologists have been tracking for over a week is entering a more hostile zone for development in the Caribbean.
"The tropical wave was moving into a zone of increasing wind shear and dry air over the Caribbean as it drifted westward on Tuesday," AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
Because of the scope of wind shear and dry air over the Caribbean, AccuWeather meteorologists are no longer forecasting that tropical wave to develop.
"While the broad nature of this tropical wave will bring localized downpours and gusty winds to the islands in the Caribbean as it drifts westward, it is not likely to be a significant long-term threat," DaSilva said.
Downpours and gusty thunderstorms from this system are likely to reach parts of Central America Friday and Saturday.
There will be more tropical waves to watch in August
As July winds down and August ramps up, conditions typically become more favorable for tropical development in the prime zone of the Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. The months of August and September are sometimes referred to by meteorologists as the Cabo Verde season, because of the amount of tropical systems that take shape near the group of islands located off the west coast of Africa.
As the train of tropical waves continues to move westward from Africa, there will inevitably be opportunities for development with some of the systems.
During the late summer and first part of autumn, water temperatures are typically at their warmest levels in the tropics and areas of dry air and disruptive wind shear tend to dwindle.
"A robust tropical wave moved off Africa on Monday and will be closely monitored for development during the end of this week, through this weekend and into next week as it moves generally to the west," DaSilva said. "This tropical wave will encounter dry air from Saharan dust into Friday, though wind shear may decrease in the system's path toward the end of the week and that may allow the system to organize."
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists have assigned a medium risk of development for the system, with the potential for an increase in development risk later this week.
The next named tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic will be called Emily. Don, the most recently named storm to prowl the open waters of the basin, briefly became the first Atlantic hurricane of the year well away from land this past Saturday.
AccuWeather's tropical and long-range meteorologists are expecting a significant uptick in tropical development in the Atlantic during August and into September. However, a quick decrease in activity is possible during the second half of the hurricane season as El Niño's impacts on the basin increase.
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