Weak tropical system to pose numerous risks along US East Coast
Forecasters say there is a slight chance the storm system could become Wanda, the final name on the list for the 2021 Atlantic season.
By
Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist &
Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather senior editor
Updated Oct 10, 2021 12:20 AM EDT
A stormy and unsettled weekend is in the forecast for parts of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast as meteorologists continue to track an area of disturbed weather off the coast of the Carolinas that could become the next named system in the Atlantic basin.
If the system were to become a tropical or subtropical storm, it would be given the name Wanda, the final name on the designated list for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters would then utilize a new supplemental list of names for any remaining systems that develop through the rest of the season, which concludes Nov. 30.
The tropical feature in question currently consists of a cluster of rain and thunderstorms and is located about 100 miles southeast of Morehead City, North Carolina. Forecasters have given this system, designated as Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, a medium chance to form, and they caution that a window does exist where it could strengthen into a subtropical or tropical storm.
AccuWeather Hurricane Expert and Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski said the presence of wind shear was a key factor in limiting the development of this tropical feature last week. However, the wind shear, or disruptive winds in the atmosphere, is likely to diminish slightly on Sunday. Despite the lessening of the shear, conditions will still be far from conducive for tropical development.
"Vertical wind shear is expected to decrease as the feature merges with a cold front, but this merger will probably prevent the development of a tropical system," explained Kottlowski.
The tropical Atlantic has turned less active since Hurricane Sam dissipated over the far northern Atlantic earlier this week, and it's been weeks since a named storm has struck the mainland U.S. The most recent storm to move over land was Hurricane Nicholas, which made landfall on Sept. 14 in southeastern Texas.
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Regardless of if a storm organizes into Wanda or not, stormy conditions in the form of strong winds and heavy rain are expected at times along the Atlantic coast from Florida to New Jersey this weekend.
"Much of the Northeast will be pinched between two weather systems on Sunday with the focus on any development of a coastal low off the Carolina coast," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz.
Coastal flood advisories were issued by the National Weather Service for Delaware, much of New Jersey and even the Philadelphia region. The advisory went into effect early Saturday and will remain in place through Sunday afternoon.
This weekend will not be ideal for those looking to spend time at beaches from parts of Florida to New Jersey. Rough surf is likely on Sunday along much of the East Coast.
"If the low off the Carolinas develops and hugs the coast, there can be a surge of tropical moisture east of the Appalachians Saturday through Sunday which would translate to some heavier rain in spots during this period," said Benz.
And that's exactly what happened in Raleigh, North Carolina, Saturday morning as nearly 5 inches of rain fell, prompting flash flood warnings. Reports of water rescues and flooded roadways became commonplace across the Triad as a result of the tropical downpours.
Showery activity extending from the mid-Atlantic coast northward towards the cape and islands of Massachusetts will be tied to the development and location of the coastal low off the Carolinas Sunday into Sunday night, AccuWeather forecasters say.
Conditions should begin to dry out and warm up along the Northeast coast by Monday as an area of high pressure expands and encompasses a majority of the Northeast, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
"Although drier conditions are expected along the coast Monday and Tuesday, lingering rough surf associated with the area of disturbed weather off the Carolinas is still possible," Buckingham said.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.
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News / Hurricane
Weak tropical system to pose numerous risks along US East Coast
Forecasters say there is a slight chance the storm system could become Wanda, the final name on the list for the 2021 Atlantic season.
By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist & Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather senior editor
Updated Oct 10, 2021 12:20 AM EDT
A stormy and unsettled weekend is in the forecast for parts of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast as meteorologists continue to track an area of disturbed weather off the coast of the Carolinas that could become the next named system in the Atlantic basin.
If the system were to become a tropical or subtropical storm, it would be given the name Wanda, the final name on the designated list for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters would then utilize a new supplemental list of names for any remaining systems that develop through the rest of the season, which concludes Nov. 30.
The tropical feature in question currently consists of a cluster of rain and thunderstorms and is located about 100 miles southeast of Morehead City, North Carolina. Forecasters have given this system, designated as Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, a medium chance to form, and they caution that a window does exist where it could strengthen into a subtropical or tropical storm.
AccuWeather Hurricane Expert and Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski said the presence of wind shear was a key factor in limiting the development of this tropical feature last week. However, the wind shear, or disruptive winds in the atmosphere, is likely to diminish slightly on Sunday. Despite the lessening of the shear, conditions will still be far from conducive for tropical development.
"Vertical wind shear is expected to decrease as the feature merges with a cold front, but this merger will probably prevent the development of a tropical system," explained Kottlowski.
The tropical Atlantic has turned less active since Hurricane Sam dissipated over the far northern Atlantic earlier this week, and it's been weeks since a named storm has struck the mainland U.S. The most recent storm to move over land was Hurricane Nicholas, which made landfall on Sept. 14 in southeastern Texas.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Regardless of if a storm organizes into Wanda or not, stormy conditions in the form of strong winds and heavy rain are expected at times along the Atlantic coast from Florida to New Jersey this weekend.
"Much of the Northeast will be pinched between two weather systems on Sunday with the focus on any development of a coastal low off the Carolina coast," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz.
Coastal flood advisories were issued by the National Weather Service for Delaware, much of New Jersey and even the Philadelphia region. The advisory went into effect early Saturday and will remain in place through Sunday afternoon.
This weekend will not be ideal for those looking to spend time at beaches from parts of Florida to New Jersey. Rough surf is likely on Sunday along much of the East Coast.
"If the low off the Carolinas develops and hugs the coast, there can be a surge of tropical moisture east of the Appalachians Saturday through Sunday which would translate to some heavier rain in spots during this period," said Benz.
And that's exactly what happened in Raleigh, North Carolina, Saturday morning as nearly 5 inches of rain fell, prompting flash flood warnings. Reports of water rescues and flooded roadways became commonplace across the Triad as a result of the tropical downpours.
Showery activity extending from the mid-Atlantic coast northward towards the cape and islands of Massachusetts will be tied to the development and location of the coastal low off the Carolinas Sunday into Sunday night, AccuWeather forecasters say.
Conditions should begin to dry out and warm up along the Northeast coast by Monday as an area of high pressure expands and encompasses a majority of the Northeast, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
"Although drier conditions are expected along the coast Monday and Tuesday, lingering rough surf associated with the area of disturbed weather off the Carolinas is still possible," Buckingham said.
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