Retracing Hurricane Laura's journey while comparing it to notorious storms Rita and Katrina
By
Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather senior editor
Published Sep 4, 2020 7:16 PM EDT
A satellite loop showing Laura progress from a tropical storm over the Caribbean to a Category 4 hurricane that made landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. (AccuWeather)
(AccuWeather)
Since even before the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially began, meteorologists have continually harkened back to the record-setting 2005 hurricane season as one that could bear a close resemblance to what plays out in the basin this year. AccuWeather forecasters predicted this season to be "hyperactive," and it's largely been just that.
Like in 2005, the northern Gulf Coast has suffered a brutal blow, when Category 4 Hurricane Laura ripped through southwestern Louisiana on Aug. 27 as the strongest storm to make landfall in state history, almost 15 years to the day that Hurricane Katrina struck a devastating blow along the central Gulf Coast, overwhelming the federal levee system that triggered a flood catastrophe in New Orleans.
Laura followed a path that bore a striking resemblance to Hurricane Rita, which occurred almost one month after Katrina in 2005. Rita made landfall on Sept. 24, 2005, across western Cameron Parish, slightly farther west from where Laura barreled inland.
As someone who has generated forecasts for all three of these notorious hurricanes, AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski noted several similarities and differences between them as Laura's impacts were unfolding last week.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
One of the major differences that set Laura apart from Katrina and Rita, was that Laura continued to strengthen right up until landfall and struck at Category 4 intensity. Katrina and Rita made landfall as Category 3 hurricanes.
This graphic shows Hurricane Rita's track in September 2005.
"Both Katrina and Rita were weakening hurricanes as they made landfall. Laura was either still intensifying or not weakening when it made landfall," Kottlowski said. "Laura joins the group of Michael (in 2018) and Harvey (in 2017) of storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have actually either intensified or maintained their intensity as they made landfall."
Historically, most storms that have made landfall have actually weakened as they approached the coast, Kottlowski explained, pointing out that water shoaling along the coast would cause the storm to weaken.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Geoff Cornish explains how hurricane track forecasting has improved over the years in terms of precision and accuracy.
Shoaling is a process in which the size and amplitude of ocean waves change as they move toward the coast from deeper to shallower waters. Kottlowski explained that as a hurricane approaches, an upwelling of cooler water occurs, which causes sea surface temperatures to cool. "This lingering cooler water lasts for days or weeks," Kottlowski said. Hurricanes, of course, rely on warm water to strengthen.
"But I think Laura was moving fast enough not to have problems with that shoaling," he said.
A look at some of the top wind gusts from Laura on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2020.
While Laura was a stronger storm at the time of landfall, a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, both Rita and Katrina were larger and stronger storms over the course of their durations. Rita and Katrina each reached Category 5 status (winds of 157 mph or greater) as they churned over the Gulf of Mexico.
Ahead of Katrina's approach in 2005, the National Weather Service drew attention for its use of dire language for one of the final storm bulletins issued prior to landfall on Aug. 29.
On Aug. 28, 2005, a sternly-worded message was directed to the people of Louisiana from the NWS office in Slidell, Louisiana.
"Devastating damage expected," the bulletin began, before it categorized Katrina as "unprecedented," a storm that the area had not seen the likes of since Hurricane Camille in 1969. Messaging forewarned of "certain death" due to the potential for loose items to become projectiles amid Katrina's hellacious winds.
"MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE."
"AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK."
The full bulletin text can be read here.
Ahead of Laura, the National Hurricane Center used similarly grim language to emphasize just how catastrophic the storm surge could become, calling it "unsurvivable."
Kottlowski called the NHC's language "appropriate" for such a dangerous storm. He noted that the official storm surge readings from Laura will likely be determined in several weeks, but one report surfaced in the days after on social media of a 15-foot surge.
Still, a 10-foot storm surge was enough to ravage the community of Cameron, where Laura made landfall. Many buildings that are still standing remained without power a week later while debris, including small boats, was still strewn around the town's streets, according to The Advocate. The death toll was at least 18 from the storm, but the full impact of Laura won't be known for weeks or months.
Katrina was a worst-case scenario because of where the storm arrived, and it triggered reports of storm surges as great as 25 to 28 feet along the Mississippi coast. Not to mention, it hit in a much more populated area than Laura.
Rita's storm surge was about 12-18 feet in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, and 10-12 feet across Vermilion Parish, devastating the coastal areas.
Kottlowski said he thought the public did a good job heeding the strong warnings to get out of harm's way during Laura, and memories of past hurricanes may have served as extra motivation to get out.
"Probably a large majority of people that live in southwestern Louisiana remember Rita," Kottlowski said.
Unlike Laura, Rita's path took it farther west into southeastern Texas, where it left considerable damage behind in Beaumont and Port Arthur. While both of those cities evacuated ahead of Laura, they experienced less damage from Laura than Rita.
Ahead of Katrina's evacuation, about 1.5 million left Louisiana, but about 150,000 to 200,000 remained. Perhaps one of the most notable impacts of Rita was the disastrous gridlock that unfolded in around Houston during the mass evacuation, which was called one of the largest in U.S. history. According to The Houston Chronicle, about 2.5 million fled and some drivers were stuck on the road for about 24 hours. Heat stroke was blamed for the deaths of dozens of motorists looking to escape Rita, which ended up sparing Houston.
Rita and Katrina both followed similar paths into the Gulf. Rita formed near the Turks and Caicos islands, while Katrina developed over the southeastern Bahamas. Laura was born over the open Atlantic, and Kottlowski called it an "opportunistic" storm because of how it managed to survive the journey through the rugged Caribbean islands.
This image shows Laura's path through the Caribbean. Blue references indicate tropical storm warnings that were issued while yellow indicates tropical storm watches. The red along the Gulf Coast shows a hurricane warning. (National Hurricane Center)
"It had a chance to fall apart near Puerto Rico; it had a chance to fall apart near Hispaniola, even in Cuba," he said. "But it happened to track just south of the mountains of Puerto Rico and just south of the bigger mountains of Hispaniola so as not to disrupt its overall circulation pattern."
Laura then managed to stay just south of Cuba which allowed it to organize and intensify over warmer waters. Even though it moved over western Cuba for a few hours, that didn't slow it down.
"Warm water, low shear, very moist and unstable air allowed [Laura] to intensify," Kottlowski said.
If Katrina will be remembered most for its damaging storm surge, then Laura will likely be known for its destructive winds, as well as the path it didn't take. After growing concern about a path toward Houston, the fourth-most-populated city in the U.S., forecasters tracking computer models of the storm became more confident it would make a turn that would steer it toward its eventual landfall well east of there. Around 600,000 evacuated prior to Laura.
"If you would've looked at [Laura] 24 hours before it made landfall, you could swear it was heading toward Houston or farther down the coast," Kottlowski said.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Retracing Hurricane Laura's journey while comparing it to notorious storms Rita and Katrina
By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather senior editor
Published Sep 4, 2020 7:16 PM EDT
A satellite loop showing Laura progress from a tropical storm over the Caribbean to a Category 4 hurricane that made landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast. (AccuWeather)
Since even before the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially began, meteorologists have continually harkened back to the record-setting 2005 hurricane season as one that could bear a close resemblance to what plays out in the basin this year. AccuWeather forecasters predicted this season to be "hyperactive," and it's largely been just that.
Like in 2005, the northern Gulf Coast has suffered a brutal blow, when Category 4 Hurricane Laura ripped through southwestern Louisiana on Aug. 27 as the strongest storm to make landfall in state history, almost 15 years to the day that Hurricane Katrina struck a devastating blow along the central Gulf Coast, overwhelming the federal levee system that triggered a flood catastrophe in New Orleans.
Laura followed a path that bore a striking resemblance to Hurricane Rita, which occurred almost one month after Katrina in 2005. Rita made landfall on Sept. 24, 2005, across western Cameron Parish, slightly farther west from where Laura barreled inland.
As someone who has generated forecasts for all three of these notorious hurricanes, AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski noted several similarities and differences between them as Laura's impacts were unfolding last week.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
One of the major differences that set Laura apart from Katrina and Rita, was that Laura continued to strengthen right up until landfall and struck at Category 4 intensity. Katrina and Rita made landfall as Category 3 hurricanes.
This graphic shows Hurricane Rita's track in September 2005.
"Both Katrina and Rita were weakening hurricanes as they made landfall. Laura was either still intensifying or not weakening when it made landfall," Kottlowski said. "Laura joins the group of Michael (in 2018) and Harvey (in 2017) of storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have actually either intensified or maintained their intensity as they made landfall."
Historically, most storms that have made landfall have actually weakened as they approached the coast, Kottlowski explained, pointing out that water shoaling along the coast would cause the storm to weaken.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Geoff Cornish explains how hurricane track forecasting has improved over the years in terms of precision and accuracy.
Shoaling is a process in which the size and amplitude of ocean waves change as they move toward the coast from deeper to shallower waters. Kottlowski explained that as a hurricane approaches, an upwelling of cooler water occurs, which causes sea surface temperatures to cool. "This lingering cooler water lasts for days or weeks," Kottlowski said. Hurricanes, of course, rely on warm water to strengthen.
"But I think Laura was moving fast enough not to have problems with that shoaling," he said.
A look at some of the top wind gusts from Laura on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2020.
While Laura was a stronger storm at the time of landfall, a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, both Rita and Katrina were larger and stronger storms over the course of their durations. Rita and Katrina each reached Category 5 status (winds of 157 mph or greater) as they churned over the Gulf of Mexico.
Ahead of Katrina's approach in 2005, the National Weather Service drew attention for its use of dire language for one of the final storm bulletins issued prior to landfall on Aug. 29.
On Aug. 28, 2005, a sternly-worded message was directed to the people of Louisiana from the NWS office in Slidell, Louisiana.
"Devastating damage expected," the bulletin began, before it categorized Katrina as "unprecedented," a storm that the area had not seen the likes of since Hurricane Camille in 1969. Messaging forewarned of "certain death" due to the potential for loose items to become projectiles amid Katrina's hellacious winds.
"MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE."
"AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK."
The full bulletin text can be read here.
Ahead of Laura, the National Hurricane Center used similarly grim language to emphasize just how catastrophic the storm surge could become, calling it "unsurvivable."
Kottlowski called the NHC's language "appropriate" for such a dangerous storm. He noted that the official storm surge readings from Laura will likely be determined in several weeks, but one report surfaced in the days after on social media of a 15-foot surge.
Still, a 10-foot storm surge was enough to ravage the community of Cameron, where Laura made landfall. Many buildings that are still standing remained without power a week later while debris, including small boats, was still strewn around the town's streets, according to The Advocate. The death toll was at least 18 from the storm, but the full impact of Laura won't be known for weeks or months.
Katrina was a worst-case scenario because of where the storm arrived, and it triggered reports of storm surges as great as 25 to 28 feet along the Mississippi coast. Not to mention, it hit in a much more populated area than Laura.
Rita's storm surge was about 12-18 feet in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, and 10-12 feet across Vermilion Parish, devastating the coastal areas.
Kottlowski said he thought the public did a good job heeding the strong warnings to get out of harm's way during Laura, and memories of past hurricanes may have served as extra motivation to get out.
"Probably a large majority of people that live in southwestern Louisiana remember Rita," Kottlowski said.
Unlike Laura, Rita's path took it farther west into southeastern Texas, where it left considerable damage behind in Beaumont and Port Arthur. While both of those cities evacuated ahead of Laura, they experienced less damage from Laura than Rita.
Ahead of Katrina's evacuation, about 1.5 million left Louisiana, but about 150,000 to 200,000 remained. Perhaps one of the most notable impacts of Rita was the disastrous gridlock that unfolded in around Houston during the mass evacuation, which was called one of the largest in U.S. history. According to The Houston Chronicle, about 2.5 million fled and some drivers were stuck on the road for about 24 hours. Heat stroke was blamed for the deaths of dozens of motorists looking to escape Rita, which ended up sparing Houston.
Rita and Katrina both followed similar paths into the Gulf. Rita formed near the Turks and Caicos islands, while Katrina developed over the southeastern Bahamas. Laura was born over the open Atlantic, and Kottlowski called it an "opportunistic" storm because of how it managed to survive the journey through the rugged Caribbean islands.
This image shows Laura's path through the Caribbean. Blue references indicate tropical storm warnings that were issued while yellow indicates tropical storm watches. The red along the Gulf Coast shows a hurricane warning. (National Hurricane Center)
"It had a chance to fall apart near Puerto Rico; it had a chance to fall apart near Hispaniola, even in Cuba," he said. "But it happened to track just south of the mountains of Puerto Rico and just south of the bigger mountains of Hispaniola so as not to disrupt its overall circulation pattern."
Laura then managed to stay just south of Cuba which allowed it to organize and intensify over warmer waters. Even though it moved over western Cuba for a few hours, that didn't slow it down.
"Warm water, low shear, very moist and unstable air allowed [Laura] to intensify," Kottlowski said.
If Katrina will be remembered most for its damaging storm surge, then Laura will likely be known for its destructive winds, as well as the path it didn't take. After growing concern about a path toward Houston, the fourth-most-populated city in the U.S., forecasters tracking computer models of the storm became more confident it would make a turn that would steer it toward its eventual landfall well east of there. Around 600,000 evacuated prior to Laura.
"If you would've looked at [Laura] 24 hours before it made landfall, you could swear it was heading toward Houston or farther down the coast," Kottlowski said.
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