Streets were flooded and property was damaged after Nicholas swept through the Texas Gulf Coast on Sept. 14.
With Nicholas continuing to lose strength as it heads farther inland, live storm coverage has concluded. Thank you for following the storm with AccuWeather and be sure to visit AccuWeather.com, watch the AccuWeather TV Network and check the AccuWeather mobile app for continuing forecasts and additional coverage of Nicholas' impacts, which are expected to last through late week.
AccuWeather meteorologists said that due to the amount of wind shear in the atmosphere, the center of Nicholas remained near Houston as of midday Tuesday, even as the storm's rain was spreading hundreds of miles to the east. The storm appeared rather large on satellite with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward about 140 miles from its center, and mainly over water to the southeast of the center, the National Hurricane Center said. The latest eye path forecast from AccuWeather shows Nicholas, which was barely a tropical storm as of 1:45 p.m. CDT Tuesday, weakening to a tropical depression by Wednesday. There is a chance Nicholas then maintains tropical depression status if the storm is able to track close to the southern Louisiana coast through the next several days. Nicholas was only moving at a speed of 7 mph as of midday Tuesday.
Bay City, Texas, is completely powerless on Tuesday following the impacts of Hurricane Nicholas, which made landfall in nearby Matagorda. According to Matagorda County spokesperson Mitch Thames, three major transmission lines near the city went down during the storm, knocking out power to all of Bay City and 90% of neighboring Palacios, the Victoria Advocate reported.
Thames also said that multiples houses in the area lost roofs during the hurricane and that hospitals in Bay City and Palacios have been forced to operate on backup generators. Regarding the timeline of power restoration, he said it could take a while, as utility companies will have extensive work to do on the damaged power lines.
"What we’re being told is they are going to have to be restrung — not so much repaired but actually restrung," he said. "That means a little bit longer time frame."
When it came roaring ashore as a Category 1 hurricane with 75-mph sustained winds, Nicholas became the 19th named storm to hit the United States in the last 17 months. Eight of those named storms have impacted the U.S. in 2021, with seven of them making landfall. In an unusual meteorological twist, Claudette didn't achieve tropical storm status until it was over Louisiana. And the peak of Atlantic hurricane season just occurred a few days ago, meaning, like the 2020 season, the tropics could be very active through the rest of the month and well into October.
Upon making a northeastward pivot, Tropical Storm Nicholas is now dousing many areas of Louisiana that are still picking up the pieces from Hurricane Ida less than three weeks ago and even Hurricane Laura from last August. The arrival of Nicholas’ impacts in Louisiana come right as energy company Entergy had announced that power had been resorted to over 90% of customers that had lost electricity from Ida.
“Nicholas could adversely affect Hurricane Ida restoration as Entergy’s Louisiana storm team continues making progress restoring power across southeast Louisiana,” the company said in a Tuesday statement. “Our workforce has restored 91%, or 861,000 of the 948,000 total customers who lost power.”
Nicholas continues to weaken as it moves farther inland. As of the latest National Hurricane Center update, the storm's maximum sustained winds were down to 45 mph as it moved slowly through the Houston metropolitan area. Nicholas remains a dangerous storm despite its diminished state, as forecasters continue to warn that it poses a serious flood risk.
Looking beyond Nicholas, forecasters are tracking two areas in the Atlantic that are competing to become the next named system, which would be Odette. Closer to the U.S., meteorologists say an area of unsettled weather currently has a medium chance for development. Meanwhile, thousands of miles away near the coast of Africa, a tropical wave located several hundred miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde Islands has a high chance for development. The system in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to become a long-lasting tropical storm or hurricane, similar to the case of Hurricane Larry.
Cars underwater and boats floating adrift are what residents in Kemah and Seabrook, Texas, woke up to on Tuesday morning, as AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell reported from the damaged areas. The impacts of Nicholas, which struck the area with hurricane force early Tuesday morning, left docks ripped to pieces and “several streets looking more like canals,” Wadell said. He added that they met one man trying to navigate the flooded streets in a kayak, while another Seabrook resident, John Lambert, told AccuWeather that he went to bed underestimating Nicholas on Monday.
“It started off kind of slow and then it worked up to a good howl about 2 o’clock in the morning, started rolling in, and noticed a lot of branches and trees coming down,” Lambert said. “And then the rain started picking up a little bit, as Forrest Gump said, started ‘coming in sideways.’”
For more of Wadell's reporting, watch the video below.
As of 10 a.m. CDT, over 500,000 customers in Texas are without electricity, according to PowerOutage.us., including over 100,000 in both Brazoria County and Harris County.
"We are committed to restoring service to our customers as safely and quickly as possible," Kenny Mercado, Executive Vice President of CenterPoint Energy, told ABC13. "However, patience will be important as some areas of our system and equipment may be difficult to reach for our crews due to safety-related issues, such as downed trees."
Nicholas has dropped heavy rain on the Texas coast, with 9.70 inches at Jamaica Beach near Galveston, 8.75 inches at Gilchrist, and 8.27 inches at Tall Timbers, southeast of Houston. Radar estimates showed a wide area of more than 6 inches of rain from East Matagora Bay along the Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Houston's William P. Hobby airport was too far north for the heaviest rains, but recorded 3.73 inches; its average rainfall for September is 5.76 inches.
On the latest episode of AccuWeather's Weather Insider podcast, AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno explains the differences between Nicholas and past tropical systems that have caused catastrophic flooding. However, some parts of Texas have already received half a foot of rain, Rayno notes. Beyond Nicholas, there are additional tropical threats lurking in the Atlantic, Rayno said. Listen to his full forecast below.
Nicholas became the eighth-named storm to impact the United States this year and the seventh to make landfall (Claudette was named after it moved over Louisiana in June) when its eye moved over the Texas coast around 12:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday. Nicholas became a Category 1 hurricane around 10 p.m. CDT Monday and had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph at landfall.If its winds were 2 mph lower, it would have been Tropical Storm Nicholas at landfall. Nicholas joins Ida as the second hurricane to make landfall in the United States so far this year. Overall, Nicholas is the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, which still has more than two months to go until it concludes on Nov. 30.
Storm surge has left entire parts of Seabrook, Texas, underwater on Tuesday. As seen in photos taken by AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell, many roads in the coastal city have been completely washed over by the impacts of Nicholas.
Wadell also captured drone images of the city, which is located between Galveston and Houston in Harris County, depicting multiple feet of water that has completely immersed many residents' backyards.
In its latest advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Nicholas was tracking toward the Houston metro area. The storm was moving slowly at a speed of 8 mph and was about 15 miles south-southwest of Houston. Nicholas has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and remains a significant flood threat. The storm even expanded in size since Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center of Nicholas. Meanwhile, the tropical storm warning in place for San Luis Pass, about 75 miles south of Houston, has been discontinued, the NHC said.
Hurricane Harvey will be forever remembered by Texans for its devastating flooding and lingering downpours that left the Houston area underwater. But on Tuesday morning, Hurricane Nicholas actually made landfall even closer to Houston, touching down in Matagorda Harbor, just about 70 miles from where Harvey made landfall on San José Island.
As Nicholas arrived, a dangerous storm surge and fierce winds brought flooding into Matagorda. Footage from Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer captured the intensity of the hurricane in Matagorda hours before it arrived.
On Tuesday morning, several hours after strengthening into a hurricane, Nicholas lost wind intensity and was reclassified as a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane warning from Matagorda to Freeport, Texas, was changed to a tropical storm warning, and the storm warning from Matagorda to Port O'Connor, Texas, was discontinued.
AccuWeather forecasters will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Nicholas as it takes a path through southeastern Texas and into Louisiana throughout the rest of the week.
"Heavy rain will persist across southeast Texas, and will continue spreading into Louisiana today," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. While the heaviest rain and most significant flooding is expected to less in Texas on Wednesday, it can continue through midweek across southern and central Louisiana.
Over 200,000 Texans are without power early Tuesday morning, and at least 172,000 of these are in the Houston area. Hurricane Nicholas, which made landfall to the southwest of the city earlier in the morning, is bringing intense winds that can topple trees onto power lines across the Texas coast. The highest wind gust recorded so far was 95 mph on Matagorda Bay, Texas, on Monday night.
Still reeling from Ida, Louisiana counted nearly 100,000 power outages early Tuesday morning as well. Nicholas is forecast to move through the state from Wednesday through the rest of the week, bringing heavy rain as it slows down. Though winds won't be nearly as strong as Nicholas crosses Louisiana, the ground is already saturated from Ida, and soft, wet soil can be easier for wind to pluck trees from.
Hurricane Nicholas made landfall around 12:30 a.m. CDT Tuesday morning on the eastern part of Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles west-southwest of Sargent Beach, Texas, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
"The storm continues to move north-northeast," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Thomas Geiger. Rapid water rises are possible where the heaviest rain occurs across Texas and Louisiana, and strong wind gusts will occur with some damage possible, mainly to trees and any unprotected weak or temporary structures. Flooding has already been reported in Freeport, Texas, while storm surge has been building on Surfside Beach, Texas.
On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden declared an emergency in Louisiana and ordered Federal assistance due to Hurricane Nicholas, according to the White House. In August, Hurricane Ida caused extensive damage to parts of the state as it made landfall. Heavy rainfall and storm surge caused widespread flooding across Louisiana, and rain from Nicholas can easily renew the flooding this week. The President authorized coordination of all disaster relief efforts to alleviate hardship and suffering due to the emergency.
Already over 164,200 are experiencing power outages, according to poweroutage.us, across Texas and Louisiana as Hurricane Nicholas threatens to make landfall early on Tuesday morning, lashing the coast with heavy rain and high winds.
Nicholas is expected to take a hard right turn toward Louisiana after landfall in Texas, crossing the state from west to east as a tropical rainstorm. While AccuWeather forecasters aren't expecting extreme winds to occur across most of Louisiana, the storm is forecast to slow down and drench the state with several inches of rain.
Just hours before landfall, Nicholas was upgraded from tropical storm to hurricane on Monday night due to high gusts. The hurricane watch from Port O'Connor to Freeport, Texas, has been changed to a hurricane warning as Nicholas brings heavy rain, storm surge and high winds to coastal Texas.
"Rain will be heavy at times through midweek across parts of southeast Texas and Louisiana," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg. Significant and life-threatening flooding will be a concern from this, particularly near landfall and into southern Louisiana, including Houston and areas hit hard by Ida.
This radar image, taken on Monday night, shows Hurricane Nicholas off the coast of Texas. (AccuWeather)
With Tropical Storm Nicholas hitting the coast of Texas, concerns of flooding caused by heavy rainfall loom over the region. Houston, in particular, is highly susceptible to flooding compared to other cities. According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Maxwell Gawryla, the soil the city was built on, which is mainly clay-based, plays a role in its susceptibility to flooding. “This type of soil isn't especially capable of draining water quickly,” Gawryla explained, leaving the opportunity for more standing water. In addition, many bayous flow naturally through the land the city was built on. These bayous are not typically problematic but can become an issue when tropical systems impact the area. “When abnormally heavy and widespread rain occurs across southeast Texas like what we see when tropical systems impact the area, these slow-moving bayous don't allow for quick drainage out of the area,” Gawryla said.
In addition to its natural susceptibility, the rapid development in the area can contribute to less drainage of floodwaters. While older cities with high populations typically need to build upwards, Houston has the ability to expand horizontally. Gawryla said that because developed areas are typically worse for rainwater drainage, Houston is making itself more susceptible to flooding by spreading paved and developed areas further.
As Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to move erratically off the coast of Texas, its impacts will be felt all the way to southwestern Louisiana. Lake Charles, Louisiana, which is still recovering from the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, is expected to see a total of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with the highest wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph. Houston and Galveston, Texas, are expected to see worse conditions, with an estimated 8 to 12 inches of rainfall. In Galveston, winds are forecast to reach up to 40 to 60 mph. The strongest wind gusts of 60-80 mph with an AccuWeather Storm Max™ gust to 90 mph are forecast to occur along the middle portion of the Texas coast Monday night into early Tuesday.
With the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas sitting just miles from land, towns along the Texas coast are measuring significant rainfall. Port O’Connor measured 2.13 inches of rain in just one hour, and the National Weather Service is warning that rainfall rates could hit 3 inches per hour for a time between Port O’Connor and Galveston through the first half of Monday night. Freeport, Texas, has been one of the wettest spots so far with 5.79 inches of rain.
Tropical Storm Nicholas seen by weather radar early Monday night. (AccuWeather)
With the outer bands of Tropical Storm Nicholas reaching Houston, rainfall has already begun to impact travel. One semi-trailer jackknifed on a ramp from US-90 to I-610 on the northeast side of the city Monday afternoon, according to AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell. Earlier during the day, the Houston Fire Department encouraged citizens to stay home and to not travel during the storm. The city sits roughly 110 miles to the northeast of Port O’Connor, where Nicholas is expected to make landfall later Monday night. However, as the city and the surrounding areas are prone to flooding, many have rushed to prepare for the floodwaters. As early as Sunday, Sept. 12, Galveston County had been preparing for the onslaught of rain by staging high water assets, and shop owners lining their doors and windows with sand bags and wooden boards.
Conditions are deteriorating along the Texas coast as Nicholas nears landfall. As of 7 p.m. CDT, the center of the storm was just 35 miles south-southwest of Matagorda, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. The storm has become gradually stronger throughout the day and is just shy of Category 1 hurricane status, which is 74 mph. The worst of the winds, rain and storm surge are occurring around Port O’Connor and Matagorda. A buoy in Matagorda Bay has clocked a wind gust over 70 mph, with higher gusts possible through landfall.
Nicholas is expected to make landfall this evening on the 13th anniversary of Hurricane Ike’s devastating landfall. Ike struck Galveston Island as a strong Category 2 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, early in the morning on Sept. 13, 2008. It brought with it a destructive storm surge up to 10 13 feet along parts of the Texas and Louisiana coastline, but as the storm grew into a larger hurricane, its winds caused storm surge flooding along much of the Gulf Coast long before it made landfall. "Almost every structure on parts of the Bolivar Peninsula, including the communities of Crystal Beach, Gilchrist, and High Island, were completely razed from their foundations due to the surge and accompanying waves,” the National Hurricane Center report on Ike explained. Winds caused serious damage in Galveston and Houston, and 2.6 million customers lost power in Texas and Louisiana. Ike also spawned more than two dozen tornadoes in the United States. The storm’s impacts were widespread as it moved inland. Despite losing wind intensity and becoming a tropical rainstorm as it moved over Arkansas, Ike remained a deadly and dangerous force across the Ohio Valley and parts of the mid-Atlantic. Millions of customers lost power as strong winds ripped across Ohio with damaging gusts. Impacts such as torrential rain and high winds were even felt much farther north in parts of Canada, including across southern Ontario and Quebec.
As Tropical Storm Nicholas approached with heavy rain and strong winds, Texas. Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 17 counties in the path of the storm. The list includes Harris County, which over 2 million Houstonians call home. “The State of Texas is working closely with officials on the ground to provide the resources and support needed to keep our communities safe, but it is up to all Texans in the path of this storm to take precautions, heed the guidance of officials, and remain vigilant as this severe weather moves through Texas,” Abbott said in a statement.
British pop star Harry Styles canceled his “Love on Tour” show scheduled for Monday at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, ahead of the approaching tropical storm. “Unfortunately, due to the approaching storm in Houston, I’ve been advised that tonight’s show at the Toyota Center can’t happen,” he wrote over Twitter. “Safety must take priority, so please go home and be safe.” The announcement came shortly after Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo warned residents in an update to be off the road by 6 p.m. CDT. “This has the potential to be a very dangerous storm for our county, particularly the more you head toward our southeast,” Hidalgo said.
Tropical Storm Nicholas became the second storm of its name in the Atlantic basin over the weekend. The name Nicholas was also used for a tropical storm in 2003. Prior to this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, there were 18 “N” storms that have seven unique names. Two of the names, Nate from 2017 and Noel from 2007, have been retired. Nate left Central America and Mexico flooded along the coasts before it made landfall in Louisiana on Oct. 8, causing $787 million ($876 million today) in damages and 48 deaths.
COVID-19 testing and vaccination sites were closed across several Texan counties as Tropical Storm Nicholas lurked off the coast, The Associated Press reported. Fort Bend, Harris and Nueces counties all saw closures Monday, the latter two including Houston and Corpus Christi, respectively. All three are currently under a tropical storm warning. Both COVID-19 cases and deaths around Harris County in particular have increased recently, according to The New York Times. Due to the high transmission in the area, the CDC has recommended even vaccinated people wear masks.
While the main threat from Tropical Storm Nicholas is heavy rain, the erratic storm is also predicted to pack damaging winds. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 miles per hour with an AccuWeather Storm Max ™ of gusts up to 90 mph are forecast along the middle portion of the Texas coast Monday night into early Tuesday. If Nicholas’ center continues to shift, the strongest winds could shift further north. Regardless, winds of at least 40 to 60 miles per hour are expected along the Texas Gulf Coast extending all the way into western Louisiana. According to the National Hurricane Center, Nicholas currently has 60 mph winds.
Tropical Storm Nicholas grew a bit stronger on Monday afternoon with maximum sustained winds increasing to 65 mph, 10 mph shy of reaching hurricane status. It is also approaching landfall at a steady pace, advancing north-northeastward at 12 mph with the center of the storm located 70 miles south of Port O’Connor, Texas, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 4 p.m. CDT update. A buoy in the Gulf of Mexico located near the center of the storm recently observed waves of 13 feet tall, according to NOAA. With Nicholas potentially gaining more strength ahead of landfall, waves in the Gulf of Mexico could top 15 mph on Monday evening.
AccuWeather's
Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite showed Tropical Storm Nicholas closing in on the Texas coastline on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021.
Port Houston, one of the largest ports in the world, will cease ingate operations at 3 p.m., CDT, on Monday and remain closed through Tuesday morning due to Tropical Storm Nicholas. The port could reopen at noon on Tuesday. Port Houston is continuing to monitor weather conditions and will make an announcement on reopening plans by 6 p.m. on Monday. The port moves 247 million tons of cargo each year and is 25 miles long.
AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting that Nicholas will make landfall along the coast of Texas around 7 p.m. CDT, but the cycle of the tides will help with the water level along the coast. According to NOAA tide predictions, many areas along the coast are predicted to reach low tide between 6:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. CDT, including Corpus Christi Bay and Galveston Bay. This means that the water level along the coast will not be as high as it would be if Nicholas were to hit near high tide. However, a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is still possible from Corpus Christi to Galveston, while the rest of the Texas coastline, as well as parts of the Louisiana coastline, experience 1 to 3 feet of storm surge.
The first bands fo rain from Tropical Storm Nicholas were making their presence known in Galveston, Texas,on Sunday night. Video from AccuWeather’s Bill Wadell showed power flashes in the night sky as the first rain bands began to arrive on the coast. As of 10 a.m., CDT, Nicholas was about 140 miles south of Port O’Connor, Texas, which is located southwest of Galveston. TheCorpus Christi International Airport has already reported 3.09 inches of rain, and McAllen International Airport has reported 1.72.
AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell spoke with members of the Texas Search and Rescue (TEXSAR) team on Monday morning, and they told Wadell their biggest concern in regards to rescue efforts is with a storm that stalls somewhere, akin to Harvey in 2017.
“I’ve seen a lot of tropical storms come in as a tropical storm, and dump 35 inches of rain. So it’s not necessarily the size of a storm, it’s the severity and the length of time it stays in one place,” Joe Houston, Gulf Coast chapter section chief for TEXSAR, told Wadell. “If it stays in one place, the water has no place to go, especially when you get a storm that comes in with a high tide, the water can’t leave anyplace.”
Joe Houston, Gulf Coast chapter section chief for the Texas Search and Rescue Team, told AccuWeather's Bill Wadell that responders are already positioned to battle flooding from Tropical Storm Nicholas. (AccuWeather/Bill Wadell)
Houston added he hopes people have gotten out already, but if they haven’t yet, responders are positioned at the areas where the Houston County has “a pretty good idea of what places are going to flood first.” While help may take a long time to reach people if Nicholas brings severe flooding, Houston urged residents who find themselves in danger to call 911 as quickly as possible.
“I’m hoping for a very boring next 72 hours,” he said.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued a ‘high risk’ for excessive rainfall around Houston and Galveston, Texas, the most extreme level of its rainfall outlook. This classification is reserved only for when “severe, widespread flash flooding” is expected,” the WPC said. “Areas that don’t normally experience flash flooding, could,” putting lives and property in great danger. People should prepare now for the likelihood of flooding and have a plan in place for when waters rise. A high risk for excessive rainfall is only issued about 15 times per year, but account for 86% of annual flood-related damages, according to WPC.
A high risk was issued in the Northeast when Tropical Rainstorm Ida approached the Northeast with significant rainfall. This ultimately lead to the ‘most significant flash-flooding’ in New York City history with over 50 lives lost across the region.
Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner held a press conference on Monday to announce details of the city’s preparation efforts for Tropical Storm Nicholas. On Monday morning, barricades were set up across 43 locations in the city. Turner said the city’s main concerns will be Monday night and Tuesday morning, and asked residents to help first responders out by staying off the roads in the evening. “Finish up what you got to do, then be at home in a safe place,” he said. Several school districts will not have school on Tuesday due to the storm, and Turner said he is deciding on whether or not nonessential city employees will be required to work tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Nicholas is set to soon make landfall in Texas, just days after the 60-year anniversary of Hurricane Carla’s landfall in Galveston, Texas. Carla, which strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane by the time it made landfall, was the first tropical cyclone that forecasters were able to track all the way up to the coast using weather radar. Prior to the use of radar, many residents along the Gulf Coast were not able to gain a full understanding of the dangers of the storm, AccuWeather’s Adriana Navarro reports. Also noteworthy, the groundbreaking method a young up-and-coming news reporter used to cover the story as the storm approached helped catapult him to the top of the news world -- and changed hurricane coverage forever.
While Nicholas’ largest threats are focused on the eastern coast of Texas, farther northeast in Louisiana, many residents are feeling anxious about the potential impacts of yet another round of tropical rainfall. In western Louisiana, areas such as Lake Charles and Cameron Parish are still in repair mode from last summer’s devastating Hurricane Laura, while over 100,000 residents in the southeast portion of the state are still without power over two weeks after Hurricane Ida left its mark.
"This tropical storm has the potential to disrupt some power restoration and recovery work currently underway,” Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said in a statement while declaring a state of emergency. “I encourage anyone who has had recent damage from Ida, Laura or other disasters to take necessary measures to protect their home or business from additional harm."
The first bands of rain from Tropical Storm Nicholas were making their presence known in Galveston, Texas, as early as Sunday night. Video from AccuWeather’s Bill Wadell showed power flashes in the night sky as the first rain bands began to arrive on the coast. As of 10 a.m., CDT, Nicholas was about 140 miles south of Port O’Connor, Texas, which is located southwest of Galveston. The Corpus Christi International Airport has already reported 3.09 inches of rain, and McAllen International Airport has reported 1.72. Wadell also reported that volunteers with Texas Search and Rescue already have boats and high-water rescue vehicles in place and ready to be deployed.
AccuWeather meteorologists are warning about the potential for dangerous storm surge from Nicholas as the system moves over Texas Monday night. "A storm surge of 3-6 feet with locally higher levels can occur from Corpus Christi Bay to Galveston Bay, Texas," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. "A storm surge of 1-3 feet is anticipated farther south and north along the Texas coast and along the southwestern Louisiana coast."
A storm surge warning is in place from Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas. This includes Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay, according to the National Hurricane Center. "This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions," the NHC said.
For the second time in recorded history, a tropical system named Nicholas is prowling the Atlantic basin. The name Nicholas was also used back in October 2003 for a tropical storm that remained over the Atlantic and well away from land. Prior to this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, there were 18 “N” storms that have seven unique names. Two of the names, Nate from 2017 and Noel from 2007, have been retired. Nate left Central America and Mexico flooded along the coasts before it made multiple landfalls along the U.S. Gulf Coast as a Category 1 hurricane from Oct. 7 to Oct. 8. Nate was responsible for causing $787 million ($876 million today) in damages and was blamed for at least 48 deaths.
As we look to the next named storm, Nicholas, we look back on the history of “N” storms including one storm that devastated Central America.
Texas is no stranger to feet of rain and severe flooding from tropical storms. Tropical Storm Imelda brought as much as 44.29 inches of rain northeast of Houston in September 2019. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey caused widespread flooding, with one gauge measuring 60.58 inches, a new record for tropical storms affecting the continental United States. Before Harvey's unusually heavy and widespread rainfall, Tropical Storm Allison was the benchmark storm, delivering 10-20 inches of rain across much of northeast Texas and Louisiana in 2001. In 1979 Hurricane Claudette dropped more than 10 inches of rain on the Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts, with 45 inches falling at Alvin, Texas.
Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Imelda in September 2019.
In this Aug. 29, 2017, file photo, water from Addicks Reservoir flows into neighborhoods from floodwaters brought on by Tropical Storm Harvey in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File)
As Tropical Storm Nicholas makes its way toward the Gulf Coast, Louisiana and Texas are making emergency preparations. The landfall will come just over two weeks after Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 4 storm, devastating parts of the state. Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a statewide state of emergency ahead of Nicholas’ landfall, which is forecast to bring flash flooding and heavy rain to Louisiana. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott also took to social media to address the incoming storm, where he reminded residents to avoid floodwater and announced that the state had already begun mobilizing resources for residents. The storm is rated a 1 on AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale for determining the impacts of tropical weather.
AccuWeather meteorologists said Nicholas was already producing thunderstorms and rain in southern Texas Monday morning as the storm remained near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Forecasters said tracking the storm's center has been a bit tricky, as it has already formed and re-formed multiple times. The National Hurricane Center described Nicholas' movement as erratic early Monday morning. If the eye of the storm remains over the warm Gulf waters long enough Monday, that could allow Nicholas to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, which would result in the chances for greater wind damage over land. A Category 1 hurricane has winds that range from 74-95 mph.
Nicholas was located about 140 miles south of Port O'Connor, Texas, and 45 miles northeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River around 10 a.m. CDT Monday. Its maximum sustained winds were around 60 mph and it was moving to the north at a speed of 12 mph, up from 5 mph just three hours earlier.
Nicholas is seen on radar near the coast of southeastern Texas (AccuWeather)
On the latest edition of AccuWeather's Weather Insider podcast, Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno discusses the possibility of Nicholas reaching hurricane strength. Rayno also said, "life-threatening flooding" is possible for the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana due to the amount of tropical moisture and the slow movement of Nicholas.
Although gusty winds and storm surge from Tropical Storm Nicholas are a concern, AccuWeather forecasters say the biggest threat from Nicholas for the Gulf Coast region is rounds of heavy downpours fueled by tropical moisture. The heaviest rainfall is forecast for southeastern Texas, which includes the greater Houston area, and southwestern Louisiana. Houston is currently under a tropical storm warning.
Many locations will likely receive around 4-8 inches of rainfall from Monday through Wednesday, but areas around Houston could see up to 8 to 12 inches of rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches. Depending on the track of the Nicholas and the surge of tropical moisture, rainfall capable of producing flooding could also extend from south-central Louisiana to Alabama's Mobile Bay where 2 to 4 inches of rain may fall during the same time frame.
Tropical Storm Nicholas formed on Sunday morning, local time, making it the 14th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. A typical hurricane season has only 14 named storms throughout the entire season, meaning this year’s tropical season is shaping up to end with an above-average number of named storms. Last year’s hurricane season in the Atlantic had so many named storms that the National Hurricane Center ran through the entire list of names and had to use Greek letters. The season ended with Hurricane Iota and 30 named storms overall. The next named storm in the Atlantic will be Odette. Nicholas will become the seventh named storm to make landfall in the U.S. so far this season. An eighth storm, Claudette, wasn't officially named until it moved over Louisiana in June.
