Hurricane watch now in effect for Bermuda as Earl churns closer
Earl was packing sustained winds of 105 mph on Thursday and AccuWeather forecasters say it will intensify further as it passes by the islands of Bermuda to the east.
Bermuda was put under a hurricane watch late Wednesday afternoon as Earl maintained its force as a strong Category 1 storm. AccuWeather meteorologists expect Hurricane Earl to become the first major hurricane in the Atlantic basin this year as it passes to the east of Bermuda and unleashes some impacts on the islands late this week and stirs up large swells and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend.
The Atlantic basin is heating up following a historic quiet period, and there is a slew of other tropical disturbances that are being monitored for development.
After being named Tropical Storm Earl on Sept. 2, the system strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday night. As of Thursday morning, Earl continued to gain strength, packing maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). This made Earl the first Category 2 hurricane of the 2022 season in the Atlantic Ocean. Steering breezes had turned Earl to the north as anticipated by AccuWeather meteorologists since last week.
The hurricane was churning about 265 miles south of Bermuda, moving to the north at 10 mph as hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles out from its center. Meanwhile, tropical storm-force winds extended as far as 160 miles out from Earl's center.
The center of the system is likely to pass to the east of Bermuda Thursday night, but it will still make its presence felt. On Wednesday morning, a tropical storm warning was issued for Bermuda, according to the National Hurricane Center. Late in the afternoon, officials issued a hurricane watch for Bermuda.
Earl is likely to continue gaining strength and become a major Category 3 hurricane during the second half of this week, forecasters say, meaning the storm's maximum sustained winds will be between 111 to 129 mph (179 to 208 km/h).
"Wind shear will become less of a factor in terms of impacting Earl's strength," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "It will be in a zone of lower wind shear, but it will also be moving along with the winds, rather than fighting them."
• Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
As a result, the lower and upper portions of the storm will become more aligned. Earl will not only begin to strengthen, but the system may also do so rapidly from Thursday to Friday.
"There will be some impacts on the islands of Bermuda in the form of building seas, rough surf, gusty winds and some rain from Earl, but the potentially destructive winds and torrential rain are likely to pass to the east," Rayno said. Gusts frequenting 40-60 mph (60 to 100 km/h) are likely with a StormMax™ of 70 mph (115 km/h).
A general 1-2 inches (25-50 mm) of rain is expected, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 5 inches (125 mm). Downpours can lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas.
Aside from Bermuda, Earl’s impacts could extend as far west as the East Coast of the United States.
“Thankfully, Earl is going to pass over 800 miles east of the coast of North Carolina. However, hurricanes that are the size and strength of Earl can send swells outward over 1,000 miles from the storm,” explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael Doll.
“Swells from Earl, combined with an onshore wind, are expected to create rough surf and dangerous rip currents through the weekend,” warned Doll.
Indirectly, the tropical systems across the Atlantic Basin could also impact transportation.
"Shipping interests along the path of Earl, as well as from Tropical Storm Danielle located about 1,900 miles (3,060 km) to the northeast, will have to remain alert for rough seas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
As of Thursday morning, Danielle was packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).
"Danielle will slowly lose wind intensity and transition to a tropical rainstorm later this week and this weekend," Douty said.
Shifting steering winds may offer multiple options for where Danielle could eventually track starting this weekend. There is the possibility of the system making a loop before taking a track near Ireland and the United Kingdom or perhaps a more southern route into western Europe. In the latter scenario, it could unleash beneficial rainfall.
There is another scenario in which Danielle could be absorbed by a non-tropical system that pushes eastward from Canada. In this case, Danielle could become unrecognizable prior to reaching Europe.
New tropical system could join Earl, Danielle
Elsewhere over the Atlantic, tropical disturbances, also known as tropical waves, will continue to track off the coast of Africa.
Less dry air and wind shear in the zone from Africa to the western Atlantic have made these waves progressively more robust in recent weeks. One such wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression and storm from Thursday to Saturday. However, steering breezes during this time are likely to carry the system on a curved northward path. As a result, this system may never be a threat to land.
Additional tropical waves from Africa that follow are more likely to travel farther to the west and perhaps toward the Caribbean Sea around mid-September and possibly the United States later in September. Meteorologists say this is because a zone of high pressure is likely to strengthen to the north, and a clockwise flow of air will direct the systems more to the west, rather than to the north. At least one of these new waves has a chance to develop as soon as Saturday or Sunday.
The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Fiona.
Meanwhile, near the southern coast of the U.S., a non-tropical storm system that is expected to drift southward over the Gulf of Mexico later this week will be of interest to AccuWeather meteorologists.
"This system will likely only have a brief window to develop into a tropical system late this week," Douty said. "It will have to organize, become tropical and strengthen all in the span of a couple of days, which is probably not enough time, before moving back over the South-Central states this weekend."
If that system is delayed in turning to the north, then it might have enough time to become an organized tropical system, but AccuWeather forecasters believe that is unlikely at this time.
The climatological peak of the hurricane season is just a few days away on Sept. 10 and despite the lack of tropical systems in August, the Atlantic has sprung to life.
Danielle became the first Atlantic hurricane of 2022 on Sept. 2, about three weeks behind the average of when the first hurricane usually forms in the basin. If Earl does achieve major hurricane strength by the end of the week, that would only be about a week behind the average date for the first major hurricane. Typically the first Category 3 hurricane forms around Sept. 1 in the Atlantic.
Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, takes into account the intensity and duration of all tropical storms and hurricanes as a tropical season progresses.
The influence of wind shear and dry air that kept tropical development at bay across the Atlantic during August is expected to ease up somewhat through the remainder of hurricane season. The number of named storms for 2022 is likely to be near average with near to slightly below-average numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes.
AccuWeather's long-range forecast team predicts that one to three additional named tropical systems may unleash direct impacts on the U.S.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Subscribe to AccuWeather on Apple News.
Report a Typo
