Hurricane Erin to send 10 to 20-foot waves, coastal flooding toward US beaches this week
Large Hurricane Erin will track just east of the United States this week. Even if the center of the hurricane remains offshore, far-reaching and dangerous impacts will be felt at the Atlantic coast.
AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 20 to discuss the latest on Hurricane Erin.
Hurricane Erin is packing 105-mph winds and massive waves that will churn up dangerous conditions along parts of the East Coast this week, even without the eye of the storm making landfall in the United States. Coastal flooding, beach erosion and strong rip currents are likely, especially in North Carolina.
During much of Monday, Erin was a Category 4 storm. This past weekend, it briefly reached Category 5 status with 160-mph winds when it was north of Puerto Rico. As of Tuesday morning, Erin had ingested a significant amount of dry air, and the core was being torn by disruptive winds (wind shear). Because of this, maximum sustained winds have dropped to Category 2 intensity—105 mph.
The circulation with Erin remains large and the central pressure remains quite low. Erin's peak wind intensity may struggle for a time on Tuesday, but some recovery in strength is foreseen. Erin is forecast to regain major hurricane status at midweek.
Tropical storm warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the central Bahamas as of Monday midday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound, as of Monday evening.
On Sunday, Erin experienced a common hurricane phenomenon called an eyewall replacement, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
"This means that as the old eyewall expands outward, a new eyewall forms closer to the center," Buckingham explained. "Top winds often ease back during this cycle, but it is followed by another surge in wind intensity as the new eye completes organization."
Bands of heavy rain extending outward from the hurricane have been and will continue to produce torrential downpours, dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in the Dominican Republic and some of the surrounding islands in the northern Caribbean with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches.
Strong wind gusts can trigger sporadic power outages. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Bahamas is less than one.
Erin has thus far been steered along by the large clockwise circulation around high pressure over the central Atlantic. As Erin moves along the backside of this high, it will turn more to the northwest and then to the north early this week.
Late this week, the jet stream should begin to grab hold of Erin and guide it northeastward. The timing of that steering breeze takeover is critical to the exact path Erin will take in terms of proximity to the U.S. coast. AccuWeather meteorologists expect Erin's eye to track about 200 miles east of North Carolina's Outer Banks.
However, the wind and wave action from Erin will extend outward from the core by hundreds of miles.
While the highly dangerous eyewall of the storm is most likely to remain at sea, the size of Erin will increase over time. Combined with any shifts in track, this could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to parts of the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Bermuda and, later this week, Atlantic Canada.
Because of Erin's large size, tropical storm conditions are forecast for eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. As of Tuesday morning, tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) extend outward from the center up to 205 miles. Hurricane-force winds (74 mph or greater) associated with the eyewall extend outward up to 80 miles.
Erin's already large size and intensity are acting like a giant plunger on the sea surface. Large swells generated by the winds can reach 50 feet (the height of a five-story building) or more near the center and propagate outward. Swells lose energy as they travel, but will still reach 5-10 feet near shore along the U.S. Atlantic Coasts.
Beaches that extend out into the ocean, such as in North Carolina's Outer Banks and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, can experience waves of 15-20 feet. Waves of 10-15 feet are possible in the eastern part of Long Island, New York.
Ocean-going vessel operators should be aware that wave heights can increase dramatically just a few miles offshore. Cruise and shipping interests may want to avoid Erin and the hurricane's massive seas.
Rip currents will increase in strength and frequency from south to north along the U.S. Atlantic coast as the week progresses. Even if it looks sunny at the beach, waves from Erin could still create dangerous conditions for swimmers.
On Monday, as of the midafternoon, Lifeguards at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, had performed 50 water rescues due to increasingly strong rip currents.
Portions of the Outer Banks and the Virginia beaches will experience a storm surge up to several feet with major wave action on top of the surge. This condition will lead to significant coastal flooding and erosion. Since North Carolina's Highway 12 is near sea level, significant overwash and closures are possible on the roadway beginning around midweek. Officials have issued mandatory evacuation orders for Hatteras Island, North Carolina.
Impacts in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada
Since Erin's eye is forecast to pass well west of Bermuda, the islands will be spared a direct hit and the worst wind and rain conditions from the hurricane. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Bermuda is less than one.
However, dangerous seas and surf conditions are expected around the islands from Tuesday to Thursday.
Beyond the Caribbean, the U.S. and Bermuda, it is possible that the closest landmass that Erin may approach is southeastern Newfoundland in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador.
The projected timetable for the possible close encounter from Friday evening to Saturday. During this time, some transformation to a non-tropical storm may be underway, which could cause the shield of rain and extent of strong winds to push outward from the center even more. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Canada is less than one.
Beyond Canada, the next land masses that Erin could affect are Iceland or the United Kingdom as a tropical wind and rainstorm late this weekend to early next week.
Early history of Erin
After days of battling cool water and dry air earlier last week, Erin found its stride from Thursday to Saturday as it moved over much warmer water, surrounded itself with moisture and experienced low disruptive breezes (low wind shear).
Erin experienced one of the most rapid intensification cycles on record, strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just over a day—27 hours, 20 minutes to be exact. At 8 a.m. on Friday, Erin was a 70-mph tropical storm. At 11 a.m. on Friday, Erin's strength had edged to hurricane intensity at 75 mph. From 11 a.m. on Friday to 11 a.m. on Saturday, Erin increased to a 155-mph Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Just minutes later, as fresh data arrived from hurricane hunter aircraft, Erin became a 160-mph Category 5.
This marks the fourth straight season with at least one Category 5 hurricane. Last year brought two Category 5 storms, Beryl and Milton. Beryl was the earliest Category 5 on record, dating back to July 1.
Beyond Erin
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor the Atlantic for additional tropical troublemakers. Two areas associated with low pressure (tropical waves) moving west from Africa are being tracked.
One wave has a low chance of development and the other has a high chance. The area of interest with a high chance will cross through part of the Caribbean islands during the middle to latter part of this week. Peak hurricane season arrives in September.
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AccuWeather's Hurricane Experts predict that extreme sea-surface temperatures could lead to another above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025. With the potential for rapid intensification and a heightened risk of major hurricanes, businesses should start preparing now.
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