Bernie Rayno: 'Buckle up' as the Atlantic may soon spawn storm after storm
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 19, 2020 4:44 PM EDT
Meteorologists are watching the tropical Atlantic with extra close attention as the anticipated ramp-up of an already record-setting hurricane season begins, and one budding system is likely to strengthen into the next named storm of 2020 by this weekend.
On Wednesday evening, a tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic had organized further and was designated as Tropical Depression 13 by the National Hurricane Center at 11 p.m. EDT. As of early Friday morning, the depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 21 mph. A tropical storm watch was issued for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as well as the southeastern Bahamas.
Satellite images on Thursday afternoon, Aug. 20, 2020, showed Tropical Depression 13 over the Atlantic. (NOAA / RAMMB)
In addition to the depression, there are two other tropical disturbances that also bear monitoring over the equatorial Atlantic; one in the southern Caribbean that has become Tropical Depression 14 and will also compete to become the next named storm, and the other near the coast of Africa which is expected to take a few more days to develop.
Once the circulating winds reach 39 mph or greater, a tropical storm will be given a name. The next names on the 2020 Atlantic list are Laura and Marco.
With the likelihood of Laura forming within the next few days, it would shatter the prior "L-storm" early-season formation record, currently held by Luis on Aug. 29, 1995. If the L-storm record is set this season, it would be the ninth early-season formation benchmark set this year with Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine and Kyle now at the top for their designated letters.
Exactly how far north versus south the center forms will, to some extent, determine whether this system passes right over the northern islands of the Caribbean or just to the north or south. But, drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will extend many miles outward from the center of low pressure.
First in the path of the budding tropical system are the Leeward Islands.
"Regardless of intensity and exact track, this feature will spread gusty winds and the possibility of periodic heavy rainfall westward over parts of the Leeward Islands from Friday to Saturday," Lead Tropical Forecaster and Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.
With the expectation that Tropical Depression 13 strengthens into a tropical storm and brings some gusty winds and downpours to the northern Caribbean, the storm will be less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes, a scale that rates tropical systems from less than one to 5 based on expected impacts.
People across the northern islands of the Caribbean, as well as the Turks and Caicos, southern Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula should be prepared for tropical storm conditions, as an average, as the feature moves along with the potential for more significant conditions, depending on exact track and strength of the feature itself.
Should the system track just north of the northern islands of the Caribbean, conditions there may not be severe, but it could allow the center of the storm to strengthen over warm water with minimal impact from the high mountains in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Such a scenario could bring damaging conditions to the Turks and Caicos and part of the southern islands of the Bahamas.
"We expect the system to move across the Florida Straits and strengthen into a hurricane on Sunday or Monday before taking a turn northward in the Gulf of Mexico" Kottlowski said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
This forecast is based on the anticipated strengthening and westward extension of the Bermuda-Azores high pressure area. Should the high fail to strengthen and extend westward, there would be room for an earlier northward turn.
There are also other players on the long-range weather maps. Both a southward dip in the jet stream over the South Central states and the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression 14, which is expected to track into the western Gulf of Mexico early next week as well.
This southern U.S. feature is forecast to weaken this weekend to next week. How quickly the weakening occurs may determine whether this jet stream dip tugs the tropical system northward or allows it to continue on a west-northwest path through the Gulf.
A similar effect could be seen on Tropical Depression 14, either being tugged farther north and east, or turning more westerly in the Gulf. The circulations of both depressions, which are expected to be tropical storms or hurricanes by that time, could also interact with each other, changing their respective tracks and strength.
A third disturbance just emerged from Africa and is forecast to move westward across the Atlantic in the coming days.
With the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season already way ahead of the average pace and surpassing marks left by the notorious 2005 hurricane season, and the height of the hurricane season looming from the end of August to early October, not only are more records likely to be set, but also there is the likelihood that lives and property will be threatened in the weeks ahead.
The lid could soon come off the Atlantic basin with the potential for multiple named systems spinning at the same time, including multiple threats to lives and property at the same time from the Caribbean to North America.
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting a hyperactive year for tropical storms and hurricanes -- enough that Greek letters may once again be needed. Due to 2020's record pace and upcoming conditions expected in the basin, AccuWeather meteorologists upped their forecast for the number of tropical storms in late July, with up to 24 now predicted and up to 11 hurricanes projected for the season.
Tropical storms are named for most letters of the alphabet, with the exception of Q, U, X, Y and Z. Beyond that, Greek letters are used to name systems. The infamous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season holds the record for the greatest number of named storms at 28, and 2005 was the only year to use Greek letters.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Bernie Rayno: 'Buckle up' as the Atlantic may soon spawn storm after storm
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 19, 2020 4:44 PM EDT
Meteorologists are watching the tropical Atlantic with extra close attention as the anticipated ramp-up of an already record-setting hurricane season begins, and one budding system is likely to strengthen into the next named storm of 2020 by this weekend.
On Wednesday evening, a tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic had organized further and was designated as Tropical Depression 13 by the National Hurricane Center at 11 p.m. EDT. As of early Friday morning, the depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving to the west-northwest at 21 mph. A tropical storm watch was issued for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as well as the southeastern Bahamas.
Satellite images on Thursday afternoon, Aug. 20, 2020, showed Tropical Depression 13 over the Atlantic. (NOAA / RAMMB)
In addition to the depression, there are two other tropical disturbances that also bear monitoring over the equatorial Atlantic; one in the southern Caribbean that has become Tropical Depression 14 and will also compete to become the next named storm, and the other near the coast of Africa which is expected to take a few more days to develop.
Once the circulating winds reach 39 mph or greater, a tropical storm will be given a name. The next names on the 2020 Atlantic list are Laura and Marco.
With the likelihood of Laura forming within the next few days, it would shatter the prior "L-storm" early-season formation record, currently held by Luis on Aug. 29, 1995. If the L-storm record is set this season, it would be the ninth early-season formation benchmark set this year with Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine and Kyle now at the top for their designated letters.
Exactly how far north versus south the center forms will, to some extent, determine whether this system passes right over the northern islands of the Caribbean or just to the north or south. But, drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will extend many miles outward from the center of low pressure.
First in the path of the budding tropical system are the Leeward Islands.
"Regardless of intensity and exact track, this feature will spread gusty winds and the possibility of periodic heavy rainfall westward over parts of the Leeward Islands from Friday to Saturday," Lead Tropical Forecaster and Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.
With the expectation that Tropical Depression 13 strengthens into a tropical storm and brings some gusty winds and downpours to the northern Caribbean, the storm will be less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes, a scale that rates tropical systems from less than one to 5 based on expected impacts.
People across the northern islands of the Caribbean, as well as the Turks and Caicos, southern Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula should be prepared for tropical storm conditions, as an average, as the feature moves along with the potential for more significant conditions, depending on exact track and strength of the feature itself.
Should the system track just north of the northern islands of the Caribbean, conditions there may not be severe, but it could allow the center of the storm to strengthen over warm water with minimal impact from the high mountains in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Such a scenario could bring damaging conditions to the Turks and Caicos and part of the southern islands of the Bahamas.
"We expect the system to move across the Florida Straits and strengthen into a hurricane on Sunday or Monday before taking a turn northward in the Gulf of Mexico" Kottlowski said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
This forecast is based on the anticipated strengthening and westward extension of the Bermuda-Azores high pressure area. Should the high fail to strengthen and extend westward, there would be room for an earlier northward turn.
There are also other players on the long-range weather maps. Both a southward dip in the jet stream over the South Central states and the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression 14, which is expected to track into the western Gulf of Mexico early next week as well.
This southern U.S. feature is forecast to weaken this weekend to next week. How quickly the weakening occurs may determine whether this jet stream dip tugs the tropical system northward or allows it to continue on a west-northwest path through the Gulf.
A similar effect could be seen on Tropical Depression 14, either being tugged farther north and east, or turning more westerly in the Gulf. The circulations of both depressions, which are expected to be tropical storms or hurricanes by that time, could also interact with each other, changing their respective tracks and strength.
Related:
A third disturbance just emerged from Africa and is forecast to move westward across the Atlantic in the coming days.
With the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season already way ahead of the average pace and surpassing marks left by the notorious 2005 hurricane season, and the height of the hurricane season looming from the end of August to early October, not only are more records likely to be set, but also there is the likelihood that lives and property will be threatened in the weeks ahead.
The lid could soon come off the Atlantic basin with the potential for multiple named systems spinning at the same time, including multiple threats to lives and property at the same time from the Caribbean to North America.
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting a hyperactive year for tropical storms and hurricanes -- enough that Greek letters may once again be needed. Due to 2020's record pace and upcoming conditions expected in the basin, AccuWeather meteorologists upped their forecast for the number of tropical storms in late July, with up to 24 now predicted and up to 11 hurricanes projected for the season.
Tropical storms are named for most letters of the alphabet, with the exception of Q, U, X, Y and Z. Beyond that, Greek letters are used to name systems. The infamous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season holds the record for the greatest number of named storms at 28, and 2005 was the only year to use Greek letters.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo