Wildfire season in US could 'rapidly escalate' amid building heat, drought

Fires could burn more than 7 million acres in 2025 as the United States faces a volatile year for wildfires, including areas devastated by Hurricane Helene last September.

Wildfires made international headlines in the opening weeks of 2025 after deadly infernos fanned by extreme winds swept through neighborhoods in Southern California. And the fire threat is expected to rise again in the coming months as heat, drought and the aftermath of destructive weather events set the stage for another busy wildfire season.

AccuWeather long-range forecasters say between 7 and 9 million acres will burn across the United States, near to above the historical average. Additionally, 60,000 to 75,000 fires are predicted to ignite, including 7,500 to 9,000 in California alone.

While the weather can be conducive to fire development, around 90% of all wildfires in the United States are caused by humans, according to the Western Fire Chiefs Association. This includes fires sparked by power lines, discarded cigarettes or small fires that become out of control.

Fires that break out near populated areas can cause tremendous damage. AccuWeather estimates that the fires that broke out in Southern California earlier this year caused an estimated $250 billion to $275 billion in total damage and economic loss. “The combination of rising temperatures, worsening droughts, and changing precipitation patterns continues to increase the risk of wildfires in America," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "More people are living and building in vulnerable areas, which is compounding the risk to lives and property."

Here is where conditions will be prime for fires across the U.S. through the spring and summer:

Spring wildfire risk

Wildfire season in the U.S. typically peaks later in summer and through autumn, but springtime fires can pose a unique danger, especially in areas facing drought coming out of winter.

This is the case for the southern Plains and part of the interior Southwest, with the region facing "elevated to extreme" wildfire risks this spring amid drought conditions, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

"Despite a few early spring storms, drought conditions remain deeply entrenched," he said. "Dry, windy and low-humidity days are expected to be frequent across the region, leading to rapid drying of available fuels and an increased number of high-risk wildfire days." The worst of the fire danger may have already passed, especially in parts of eastern Texas, Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma, but additional fires could still spark through the remainder of the spring.

Abnormally dry conditions paired with warm weather could also boost the fire danger across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard.

Wildfires broke out in North Carolina in March, impacting some areas where Hurricane Helene had downed large swaths of forests. The sudden increase in dead trees following the powerful hurricane has led to a dramatic increase in the fuel available for fires, which can contribute to an elevated fire danger for the region for months and potentially years.

There is also a moderate risk of wildfires in the Midwest and northern Plains, but Pastelok said an uptick in precipitation in May should reduce the fire potential by late spring.

Farther west, storms and lingering winter moisture will limit wildfire activity across the West Coast and into the northern Rockies, but factors such as springtime snowmelt in the mountains and vegetation growth could play a role in the fire season across the regions later in 2025.

Summer wildfire risk

The shifting weather conditions from spring to summer will prime the environment for a surge in wildfire activity, especially across the Northwest and northern Rockies.

"While the season may start slowly, there is strong potential for rapid escalation as drought conditions and heat set in," Pastelok said. The fast-building fire conditions are expected to focus on areas east of the Cascades through the northern Rockies.

Lightning from moisture-starved thunderstorms could trigger fires in these areas, and the risk rises throughout the season as vegetation dries out amid summertime heat and sunshine.

Thunderstorms will also be a double-edged sword across California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico as the annual monsoon builds. Rain from the monsoon helps to lower the fire risk over time, but early in the season, when the landscape is dry, lightning from monsoon storms is more prone to sparking fires.

"As summer progresses, repeated rounds of monsoon rains and elevated humidity should help suppress wildfire development, particularly in Arizona, western New Mexico and southern Utah," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

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Across the East, frequent showers and thunderstorms in the summer generally limit fire activity, but this won't be the case everywhere in 2025.

"Dry stretches with below-normal thunderstorm activity can lead to temporary flare-ups, especially in the Carolinas, parts of Georgia, Florida and the Gulf Coast," Buckingham said. Once again, this includes areas where Helene has caused an abundance of fuel primed to ignite.

Downed trees from a late-March ice storm could also temporarily raise the risk of fires in northern Michigan and northeastern Wisconsin later in the summer and into the autumn.

AccuWeather will release its fall wildfire forecast in July.

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